The ones who came out strong for a few games or even a few years and then regressed tended to rely on aggressive athleticism and “making things happen”. Then they either saw injuries stack up, they slowed down, or league figured them out. Or they were head cases. Newton, Vick, VY, Winston. Watson. I can’t think of a pocket passer who fell off the map who didn’t have some legal or mental trouble. Stroud may not improve (though he probably will), but this should be about as bad as he gets.
Nope. CJ is much less turnover prone. Watson had 8 INT in the 7 games he played his first year. Turnovers matter. Not only that, Watson had only 2 games over 300 YDS, and in those two games he had 5 INT. Also, he had Hopkins and Fuller to throw to.
Had Slowik not held CJ back against the Panthers and Falcons, the Texans would be 6-2 and CJ would be the favorite for MVP. Difference between the Jacksonville/Buccaneers/Pittsburgh games is that the Texans were aggressive with the pass on first down. Chunk after Chunk after chunk. CJ is reading the defense quickly, going through multiple progressions, and letting it fly with anticipation. Not really a regressive trait. His ability to create from a broken pocket is a plus as he is more athletic than people gave him credit for. I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't improve much from here because he is playing like a top 3-5 QB right now. People will stay away from that, because he is a rookie but the numbers don't lie. Noah Brown, Tank Dell, Nico Collins, and Schultz are his weapons. He isn't throwing to AJ Brown and Devonta Smith. He isn't throwing to Jamar Chase and Tee Higgins He isn't throwing to Travis Kelce and Co He doesn't have a Kincaid/Diggs He doesn't have a Hill/Waddle/Archanne/etc Texans fans should be extremely excited right now.
Its not even close. Watson had a much better supporting cast. Watson was an extremely exciting player, but he also turned the ball over much more frequently/took more sacks. People are underrating what CJ is doing right now with a 14-1 TD/INT paired with a 8.1 YPA means. Its 2015-2021 Aaron Rodgers level of play.
I'm still kinda piss about those 2 games...not so much the Falcon's game, but the Panthers game made me doubt Slowik so badly. Glad he redeemed himself in this last game, but I honestly feel Slowik did that because Buc's defense are bad against deep plays and because of game situation with our kicker being injured kind of forced his hands. Slowik clearly has that ability to scheme good passing plays for CJ, but for some damn reason he's so stubborn with the run when we don't have the players for that. I know we want balance, but let's focus on our strength to supplement our weakness. Bengals game will be a big test for the Texans. Especially defense.
I'm not sure Harris or Pierce are ringing endorsements. And he's drafted... I'm not looking it up - but ~15 players here before Ryans, and you're pinpointing... two? And yeah - health was Singletary's thing, so I don't give him a pass there, and Green being hurt doesn't absolve how awful he's been. If you look at this team from a 2-3 years out perspective, how many of Nick's guys - draft, free agents - will still be here - if we concede Ryans/staff was the driving force in '23?
Here's the big difference... those early Watson games.... he lost several of them. Not on him, per se - but it definitely colors those differently. To me, that's what made Sunday soooooooo different: they won. So you're seeing both the potential and the results, and that's a different kind of excitement, IMO.
I don't know about "start" - but the guy he reminds me of is Joe Burrow - another Ohio State guy (via LSU). They both process so quickly, are sneaky athletic, and can make all the throws. Burrow is more accurate - but he's also working with MILES better WRs (& OL). Even his rookie year. But that's the guy i keep going back to with Stroud: Burrow.
Predraft I didn’t think he has Burrows athleticism. Seeing him play now, I can see the Burrow comps. Remains to be seen if he has the same type of composure and consistency as Burrow but man that would be a huge win. Im super happy with the kid. I do still wish he had different representation.
Not to take anything from CJ or give anything to Watson (gross). But those first 6 games for Watson were pretty nuts. Yes he had better weapons, yes he lost 3 and won 3, but CJ has lost 4 and won 4. Cj beat jags (nice) Steelers (so has everyone) saints (nice) buccs (nice). Lost to colts, panthers, atl (oof) and ravens (understandable). watson went toe to toe with Brady and the pats, losing by 3. And Wilson in his prime. He beat the titans about the same way (points and TDs) as cj beat the buccs. again, I think CJ is better, and has had a more impressive start when you look at 14:1, the pinpoint accuracy, and the potential. But just saying “Watson lost 3 and had better weapons” is a little disingenuous..
I am totally expecting the Texans to get smoked in Cincy. Hopefully Chase is out. The defense got banged the F up against the Bucs.
(The Steelers are 5-3....) But to the point: Sunday was the culmination of a season-long build for Stroud. He had been very good, and now he has a signature win. Watson didn't really have that in '17. Right or wrong, there's just something inherently different throwing a game-winning TD in the last minute of a game vs dropping the hammer on a bad Titans team. I'm not arguing one is better - but the perception is different. Many of us at the time saw what Watson was doing in '17 as fairly unsustainable. His success was mostly unstructured and pretty wild. It was fun & exciting - but there was no path forward for a QB to chunk balls into the air 16 games/year and have success. Stroud is doing this *within* a known system, and executing it to perfection. It looks like a perfect match. Also, the Texans were 9-7 the three (?) previous seasons before Watson so there wasn't a clear before/after picture. Again, I'm arguing perception not necessarily results. The entire franchise has been altered. This Stroud start is game-changing. Watson's start was, too - but more from a good-to-great jump. Here, I'm not sure a franchise could be in worse shape and suddenly, we're talking playoffs. It's pretty remarkable.
Honestly I agree with everything you’ve said, and I agree there is something different (better) about strouds performance. I do think Watson failed to get over the hump with a big win. But the losses also came against elite teams/QBs and not the panthers/falcons. And while it was flashy and maybe unsustainable, I don’t think anyone was thinking that at the time. We were thinking this guy can go toe to toe with the patriots. We finally have it. Then we traded him for a WS ring (lolz). but yes, this Stroud run does seem more real and insane considering what he’s got for a team.
Yeah; that was my fault... And I was among many who were enjoying it - but also saw what Watson was doing as a bit of a mirage. His two signature performances - NE and SEA - he threw 5 INTs & was sacked 7 times. Again, fun-as-all-get-out and the future was exciting - but there was an definite "winging it" vibe to those early games.
Like I asked others, why is it Scruggs with his injury history gets a pass and Stingley doesn't? Guys like Collins will still be here. Petrie will still be here. Harris is healthy now and will most likely be here. Cashman hopefully will still be here, M. Collins might still be here. Nelson might still be here. Pierce wasn't drafted for this system so he's most likely gone. Jordan is most likely gone. Quitoriano may or may not be gone. Lopez is already gone. But these are all late rd guys. What's happened is you've found a new way to blame Caserio for Stingley ( who wasn't a Caserio pick) and Green getting hurt. Before the next draft tell me who's going to get hurt and who's going to be healthy and I'll tell you who they should draft. That's why the draft is such a crapshoot. BTW, I didn't want the Stingley pick either. Now that Ryans is here hes got a plan for the types of guys he wants and Caserio trades around to get Ryans the guys he wants. They appear to work well together and you're wanting to change GM's? SMH
I wouldn't say that Slowik has held Stroud back, in fact I think he's done a great job helping Stroud develop. Agreed about the weapons and I hope the weapons are upgraded this offseason.
Because Suggs wasn't drafted #3 overall, directly in front of a significantly better (so far) player at the same position. You've listed Collins twice, and haven't really expanded your list. It's remains an unimpressive group. *The* concern with Stingley was health; this isn't something that's been an issue *after* the draft. Green was abysmal before injury. It is going to be a struggle for him to stick with this team. And either Caserio was running the draft in '22 or he ceded control to a has-been lame duck coach they were forced into hiring (also on Caserio) - either is a bad look. I'm not advocating, really - I did. But I assume this past draft has bought Caserio time, assuming Ryans is comfortable with him. But Caserio has not been a good GM by any measure, prior to Ryans' hire.
This team, while it still has holes has a lot of talent on it. Look at the WR's as an example. Could they use a WR1? Yes but the talent isn't terrible.
