And... this isn't a Mets situation, where they're throwing money trying to win. The Astros win. Spending money on legitimate problems is a pretty sound investment with this team . Crane's continued attempts to put caps on that can be infuriating, especially given the hits the farm has taken.
Fangraphs Steamer Projections are out for the 2024 season. Astros have 4 of the projected top 30 hitters in terms of WRC+ in all of baseball. Projections can be found here. https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer&statgroup=standard&lg=&team=21
They’re pretty low on McCormick and Kessinger. Loperfido, Melton, Dezenzo, Wagner, and Barber all have encouraging projections. Houston absolutely has to do something at backup Catcher.
I think Space Skeeters get the shaft in the projections given that a whopping league adjustment is surely applied to the PCL while SL seems to be more of a pitcher friendly park than anything.
In the first half he was excellent but his sinker became a growing problem for him in the second half and the team or Maldy never really adjusted how he was pitched to reflect that change. Having a new catcher might be a boon for Framber.
One thing you left out is the compensation picks for losing a player you make a qualifying offer to. So if you are under the tax the draft pick the Astros would receive is after the 2nd round. If you go over the tax that pick drops to after the 4th round. I said last off-season they should have gone over the tax for 2023. None of their free agents (Maldy, Neris, Stanton, Maton) were going to receive a qualifying offer. So like you said even going 20 million over would have cost Crane 4 million and nothing else. However, after next season you have Altuve and Bregman as free agents that would both receive qualifying offers if they don't get extensions done. Now I fully expect Altuve to get extended, but Bregman to me is much less likely. He already has the rings and then he went and hired Boras. Bregman probably wants something similar to the Bogaerts deal. I hope the Astros go over the luxury tax and even push up towards that 20 million over level. I just won't believe until I see it.
The biggest downside to going into the CBT next year is the draft pick compensation we can get if we lose Atlvue/Bregman/Pressly/JV, assuming we gave them QOs. A pick before the third round vs a pick after the 4th round. I consider it a minor concern, but it is the non-financial downside.
Altuve also has Boras... Astros post Hunsicker has been fine with him although manager selection may affect that (Ron Washington has a bad rapport with him)
Altuve is and was in a different situation than Bregman. The Astros had Atluve on an extremely team friendly deal for a few more years coming off his MVP season. Boras was motivated to get a deal done while Altuve was coming off that season but the Astros had some leverage because of the team friendly years still on the books. Astros got Altuve at a discount because of those years still remaining on his contract. As far as a new contract... Altuve will be turning 35 the season when an extension would start. At most he is getting a 5-6 year deal which falls in line with Crane's history of giving out long term deals. Bregman will be a free agent and 31 the season his new contract would start. He's not in a position to have to take a signifcant discount on an extension if he is willing to gamble on himself next season. Bogarets received an 11 year deal at age 30. I'm sure Bregman would be fine with a 10 year deal at age 31.....
How is the CBT not a salary cap? The NFL has a salary cap. What happens if a team violates it? They have to pay a fine and "possibly have draft picks confiscated" and in extreme cases have contracts voided. Unless it's "extreme cases" its the same exact thing. Just because MLB says it's not a salary cap doesn't mean it's true. Most owners act like it is. Now I agree some teams go over it and ALL competing teams should occassionally in the best interest of winning and keeping players and fans happy. They just need to be smart about it. But many owners don't at all. Jim Crane has said he will go over to win, but so far its just lip service. Until he actually shows he will, I'm going to look at roster decisions under the assumption that he most likely won't so post my ideas accordingly.
I would be really surprised if Bregman gets 10 years. I would set the o/u on his next contract at 7.5 years. Something like $230M/7yrs with a vesting 8th year and some mvp or pa incentives would be my guess.
Wow. An arm like his usually doesn't get past waivers. It just shows how far his star has fallen due to a complete lack of command. It's sad, I have heard he wants out and a new start but now he has no chance with the Astros and nobody else wants him. It's hard to be a professional baseball player.
NFL teams have to get under the cap, but the system is so damn confusing. Seems like they would just be forced to cut someone. Broncos apparently did in the 90s and got off pretty damn easy. The NBA punished the hell out of Minnesota when they did it with Joe Smith.
