Getting an .800 OPS from the catcher position along with his defense (especially if he works on pitch framing) would be amazing. Especially going from one of the worst both offensively and defensively. I look at it this way. If he does eventually improve his approach, stops chasing as much and becomes a better hitter, his bat becomes too valuable to be a full time catcher. He can take over for Abreu at 1B after his contract is up. If he doesn’t, he’s still likely going to be one of the best offensive catchers.
Even if he regresses, he should hit the Mendoza line and not become a passed ball machine that rivals Maldy and Gary Sanchez.
It is legitimately funny to read the board with HeyNow on ignore. I see only 20 posts in a row of “Yanier Diaz was not given equal opportunity” and “Chas is better than Dubon or Corey Julks” and “winning with an all-star team doesn’t give a manager infinte credibility” and me wondering “why do they feel the need to keep repeating such obvious things?” Then I remember how ignore works, and I feel a great swell of pity to whoever is still reading “the other side” to those posts.
Take a breath, and then reread what I posted and consider the context... I was discussing why Dusty didn't use him throughout the season and then sidelined him during the playoffs, ie he disappeared. Not because he was bad; because he didn't play. Seriously, reread my post. At no point did I praise Dusty or suggest anything he did helped Diaz. I was speculating on why Dusty may have played him less.
It's going to be really fascinating to see his second - and hopefully first full - season play out. Unlike Pena, who's promise was wrapped around an incredible - but short - playoff run, Diaz brings nearly 400 plate appearances to the table. Young players always have to adjust, and teams will be better-prepared for him. But if 2023 was in any way a preview of what's to come... I mean, this franchise has never had a catcher anywhere close to what Diaz could be.
Brown was really good and was being projected as a future ace early in the season. Later in the year the ROOKIE faltered. All of a sudden he has become a BOR starter? It’s just an opinion, but, I believe, a very unreasonable one. He has 4 good pitches, a very repeatable throwing motion which is identical to Verlander’s, good velocity, and stayed healthy. He is the definition of a top prospect and should be a TOR contributor for years to come.
Even pretending the DH penalty doesn't exist by prorating his total offensive stats for a full year, and splitting his time between 1B and catcher equally for defensive stats, he would prorate out to a 4.3-fWAR player, or about the 30th best position player. This is a low ball estimate of how good he was last season. If you ignore the DH stats to remove the DH penalty (i.e., only looking at when Dusty played him approriately), he prorates out in the 6-6.5 fWAR range (i.e., about a Top 8 position player). I think odds are good that he's not a Top 8 position player if played appropriately (i.e., I think there is a good chance he regresses). I'd love it if he doesn't and I am open to that possibility. I'm just not ready to crown him a Top 10 player in the league just yet.
I understand and agree with most of what you are saying, except Brown's command has always been an issue and kept him from soaring into Forest Whitley like prospect status. If your definition of TOR is "Solid #2, among the better #3 starters among 45th-75th best SP" then yes that's where I projected him and still do. I think he will still have some growing pains and have some clunkers, but expect 2024 to be more in line with his 2023 first half: ERA about 4 or just barely over and back to more ground balls, less homeruns. Another thing that killed Hunter this year was the stolen base. In the first half, only 6 of 12 attempts were successful. In 2nd half, 10 of 11 were. This cut down on double play opps, added pressure and scoring opportunities, and Hunter appeared to unravel. I have not looked to see which catcher was behind the plate, but he ( like ALL Astro pitchers) needs to work on holding runners and pitching with runners on to give the catcher's a chance.
If Diaz can be a top 60 position player in terms of fwar, that is a HUGE boon for the Astros. A core of him, Yordan, and one other player (either another team friendly extension of Altuve/Bregman/Tucker or a breakout of a young player like Pena, Meyers, or a TBD prospect) means the window very likely stays open thru at least 2028.
Some of the comments regarding Diaz are a bit laughable Could he regress? Absolutely, most do. If he does will the regression be because he doesn't walk? Not necessarily Look at some of our own Yordan definitely has a "good eye", he put up a 1.067 OPS his first year, didn't really play the next (8 at bats) and dropped to a .877 his next full season Abreu who also has always been a guy who will take a walk dropped over 100 points of OPS from year 1 to year 2 Altuve, who walked 5 times in 221 at bats his rookie year jumped up 80 points of OPS in his second year some players do well when pitchers make adjustments to them, others don't fare so well. We shall see how Diaz does next year, but even with a decent sized drop he is a top catcher
While I would love to see us bring in a good LF I think it's very unlikely given our salary situation Maybe Crane will surprise me and be willing to go into the tax to bring in another good bat, but there is nothing in the past to suggest that is going to be the case Even without adding a piece there, putting the guys we already have in situations where they are more likely to succeed, basing a lot of that on good analytical situations, we already have an offense that can be as good as any in baseball. We were 5th in runs scored this year with Altuve and Yordan missing a lot of the season, Maldanado being a regular, and guys like Julks in the lineup regularly. Going from Maldanado to Diaz is a HUGE upgrade even if Diaz regresses I would guess Brown has the following as priorities 1. Making sure we hire a manager who he is very comfortable with and can work well with 2. Extending Altuve, Bregman and continuing to see if there is any possibility of extending Tucker and Framber 3. Finding the right mix of players to make certain the pen is strong. Losing Neris is extremely likely, and that's a big loss. Losing Maton is also possible although he should still be cheap enough to potentially keep around if Brown feels the need. A lot of this will depend on how Brown feels about some of the arms in the system and if he feels any are ready to pitch some leverage innings or not. 4. Finding a low cost veteran type for the bench/finding a low cost veteran type who Brown feels like we can get a lot more out of. If we can find someone in this range that can play lf/cf that is great. Could also be more of an infield type as we really have no one on the current roster as a legit backup at 3B. Dubon can play middle infield and of so he gives you some options, but adding one more solid utility type could be very beneficial to the new manager 5. Starting pitching. We can all get on here and express our feelings on why Framber/Javier regressed. Personally I think it is because of the innings load last year and not much of an offseason. I think both of them are going to be great. I read so much about trading LMJ, but I would be greatly disappointed if we did. I think Brown can be a #2 type starter. Reality is though, the Astros FO knows a lot more about all of these things. Maybe Lance finally getting the surgery has him in a place that he can finally come back and be ok, maybe it doesn't. Brown has much more info on all of this, and it will likely be the biggest factor driving the offseason. If he feels good about ALL of JV, Framber, Javier, Brown, France, Lance, then it's certainly more likely we would shop a guy like Urquidy. If he feels good about Arighetti, it might make it possible to move France in the right deal. But if he is inwardly worried aobut how much we can get from Lance I would guess moving any of those other guys isn't really an option. Hopefully we can take care of #1 pretty quickly. Yes, it's more important to get it right than to get it done quickly, but we don't need things dragging on unsettled like last offseason either
I remember how excited I was about JR Towles and how Baseball Prospectus graded him as a future sure-fire hitter ahead of the 2008 season. Then... he couldn't even touch .190. I also thought that Mitch Meluskey, Garrett Stubbs, and Korey Lee would break out... didn't happen. But Diaz has shown far more than all of them already. I don't expect him to be the next Pudge, but I do think if he starts 75% of games at catcher, that's enough to bring this team to the high 90 win totals again. Realistic expectation is top half defensive metrics related to caught stealing, framing, blocking with .265 BA with 20-25 HRs and 75-90 RBIs that he will be a top 10 catcher in MLB. (Try to name 9 better catchers you would rather have.)
We dodged a bullet in not extending Keuchel years back... and I am old enough to remember what happened when we signed Drabek, Swindell, Woody Williams (and traded for Jason Jennings). It takes a super talent for me to be willing to sign a pitcher into his mid 30s. And even with Verlander, which I think was a necessary acquisition, he hasn't been the perfect specimen for health either.
On Diaz, his lack of walks put a lot of pressure on him hammering mistakes (i.e., I don't many people think he will get even less walks). I have a hard time seeing him regress and not being below average in walks. He's just got too good of bat to ball skills. It is just really odd to see someone hit with that much authority, not walk, and have low K numbers. On Alvarez and Abreu, I'm not following. These guys get walks, but still have performance affected by health and how they are hitting the ball. If anything, I'd say when healthy, they either were consistent or got better at drawing walks, and it was quality of contact that flucuated. Tthough Alvarez is about as consistent as it comes when healthy or slightly banged up in regards to quality of contact as he dipped to Top 8% (instead of 1%) in quality of contact when he was playing through pain in 2021.
In my heart of hearts I will always believe that the 23 Astros were "another manager away" from a consecutive World Series Championship.
