I've literally been saying this for months while @rocketsjudoka has been arguing with me. Zelenskys counter offensive has been a massive failure. With republican opposition in congresss and high gas prices if biden wants to win in 2024 he'd push for a ceasefire and try to give Ukraine whatever longterm security arrangements it needed.
Massive? Russian loss of blood and money has been massive. Ukraine has made gains on the battle field, albeit small gains. Russians are sending WW2 (and before) equipment into Ukraine, since Ukraine is destroying equipment faster than the Russians can manufacture new equipment. What Russian is doing is not sustainable. This war is a battle of attrition, with the odds currently favoring Ukraine. Will the Ukraine run out of men and global support before the Russians run out equipment? Neither side wants to negotiate. Both believe that they are winning the battle of attrition.
I have a bad feeling our aid to Ukraine will slowly dry up even though some of the worst gop members think it's good (looking at you turtle)......I like the fact were giving them our current stockpile while we manufacture new for us and create the jobs at the same time, plus were paying Ukraine to destroy the Russian assets with no casualties for us. The maga extremist will use this now as a bargaining chip and cry that we cant fund Israel and Ukraine at the same time I always thought Russia had a similar military as ours, but it seems like they have outdated assets and technology.
Yea, that isn't accurate at all. US has played Ukraine pretty much perfectly, the ROI on the money spent has been ridiculous. US has nothing to do with China / Taiwan. If it happens, it happens. Most likely, US will support Taiwan monetarily, and if it fails, they will just steal all the brainpower for semi conductors in an operation paperclip 2.0. It will be horrific for Russia, Ukraine, Taiwan and China, but the US will come out on the other side as big winners.
You've actually been noticeably silent insofar as the Israel-Hamas war is having an effect on oil & gas prices which means one of multiple linchpins of your "Biden aid to Ukraine -> increase oil price -> President Trump" iron law is, as expected, severely compromised by factors that are entirely unrelated.
The price of gasoline is near yearly lows because of refinery margins which is what i've been saying for MONTHS while you folks argued with me. Oil is trading at 85 yet gas is cheaper now than when oil was trading at 69 during summer cuz of refinery margins. Refinery margins aka crack spreads are vital to the price of gasoline and the war is causing a massive shortage of refinery capacities which is why gas is expensive in the spring/summer. Ending the war will guarantee low crack spreads which means we will have cheap gas again and chances of saving democracy will be better than the alternative
Do you know why I call you a war monger? You treat human deaths as an investment. The ROI has been catastrophic for anyone who had a vested interest with anyone who has died in this war.
I have never advocated for war. You are confusing observation with support. If I was all powerful and could change history, I would absolutely choose that Russia never invades Ukraine, despite the US being better off for it. The same for China and Taiwan if it does happen. Unfortunately I don't wield that power. But I am also a realist and recognize the world is grey. While on the whole situations can be absolutely horrific, there can also be positive externalities, which don't justify the original situation.
It's not a "theory" it's literally facts. Refinery margins are usually in the "5-10" range during winter season and then during spring/summer it's usually in the 15-18 range. The war in Ukraine has caused margins to spike to 40+ during summer which is why we're paying a hefty premium at pump even though oil is trading at relatively stable prices. Gasoline prices have fallen nearly 20% over the past month and oil is trading at the same price as it was a few months ago. The only difference is Refinery margins. You can argue whether gas prices are that important or not but there's no denying the war is causing massive premiums at the pump. https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/en...b-crack-spread-swap-futures.html#venue=globex
I went looking on the web, but couldn't find them digitized, but they are there.....and she was beautiful. Here grandmother was building a house and raising her, so she added a bedroom and a connecting bathroom for me, I brazenly told my dad I was gonna move in (was 17) and he went....nope...you're not - he was right.....lol I have been really lucky in the dating category, dated an Oiler cheerleader, dated a Maverick's dancer - Susie, and in college...well.....I had fun. DD
Of course it does. China will get hit with catastrophic economic sanctions and it's decline will accelerate. As noted, semiconductor manufacturing likely gets insourced into the US.
I never claimed Ukraines counter offensive would work. In fact I had doubts they would make a lot of progress. You might be thinking of a different poster. My argument is that it’s simplistic to believe that Biden can on his own stop aid to Ukraine even if he wanted to. And also that the war could be ended quickly or gas prices reduced quickly even if the war ended right away.
Perhaps have a little empathy for the people dying in that war and refrain from referring to them as investments.
