Yainer Diaz is a free swinger, and now that there'll be a book on him, he's going to see fewer and fewer strikes. He can still punish balls outside the zone - but as we saw in the postseason, teams will just expand that zone. Hopefully, he makes changes this offseason and shows greater patience next year. But if he doesn't, he's a prime regression candidate. He may regress, anyway, as younger players often do in their early years. I really hope the Astros seek a competent (Dubon-like) back-up, just in case.
I agree with this but feel it's only a moderate issue not a big one. There was video on him and metrics based game planning for him the entire 2nd half and he just got better. If a guy can hit, he can hit. However he will need to learn some patience and pitch selection to take the next step.
It doesn't take MLB teams all f**king year in 2023 to realize a guy is a free swinger, that book came out back in May and he still had a .939 OPS in the last quarter...when Dusty let him play anyhow. I'm sure Dusty having sat his ass on the bench for 2 weeks had nothing to do with his timing in October.
Hicks at $30M/3yrs would be a fine deal and would give Houston a stellar bullpen. A lot of those SP prices look like pretty good values which doesn’t seem unrealistic given the depth of free agents at the position. I would also think at least one of those guys might take less money to have a guaranteed rotation spot on a contender rather than sign with a non-contender knowing they’re likely to be traded midseason. Joc Pederson ($12M/2yrs), Victor Caratini ($13M/2yrs), and Jordan Hicks ($30M/3yrs) would be a solid affordable free agent haul and would give Houston a stacked roster entering the season. 2B Altuve 3B Bregman DH Alvarez 1B Abreu RF Tucker C Diaz LF Pederson CF McCormick SS Pena Bench: Dubon, Caratini, Meyers, Kessinger Rotation: Verlander, Framber, Brown, Javier, Urquidy, France Bullpen: Pressly, Abreu, Hicks, Montero, Graveman, Bielak (until McCullers is healthy), Whitley (until Garcia is healthy)
What is interesting is that per Baseball Savant, Diaz is above average at swinging at good pitches (heart of the zone) and not swinging at really bad pitches (waste pitches). My guess is that pitchers try so much to get him to chase, that DIaz racks up a lot of value when they try to take advantage of his free swinging nature, but miss too far away too often. When pitchers hit their spots just off the plate to get a swing (that they try to do for every batter), Diaz is helplessly flailing too much.
Hopefully. Being an everyday player, he's going to see better pitching/pitchers who will be more capable of exploiting any weaknesses. I have to imagine it's a priority for him this offseason.
I would probably be fine with adding Yastremski. The Astros outfield rotation of: Tucker, Alvarez, Chas, Yastremski and Meyers. Yaz is a solid defensive outfielder as well. Meyers could start when there is a lefty and Yaz could start against righties. Alvarez could slide over to DH when Yaz starts. I think the Astros outfield rotation would be exceptional.
I don't like Pederson as a fit at all. He is a complete butcher with a glove. He has regressed with the bat. Only 115 OPS+ and wRC+ vs RHP in 2023. (68 OPS+, 80 wRC+ vs LHP) A guy like that needs to be at least 125 or better to really be a positive to a contending team. Filling that spot with him moves Chas to everyday starter in CF. I am convinced his reduced range and weak arm are much better in LF. It also puts Yordan in LF much more often than the organization probably wants because he is so much better than Joc. That's a hard pass for me. I would prefer a guy like Kevin Kiermeier or Adam DuVall for CF and moving Chas to LF vs RHP.
If the Astros were to get Yaz - he would play over 120 games.... he would play just about every game against righties, would pinch him and also would get some starts against lefties. Chas would play center except when Meyers is playing against a lefty. There are 4 spots to play 5 guys essentially if the Astros were to get Yaz.
Not sure why playing everyday would increase the percentage of good pitchers he sees. Technically, it is the same person, but free swingers like Diaz typically excel at feasting on tiring SPs that can't locate as well as they could early in the game instead of closers/relievers like Diaz had to do when he got to pinch hit for Maldy in tough situations. Last season, Diaz only got 40% of his PAs against the oh so sweet 2nd-4th times through the order against a starting pitcher. Bregman as an example of an every day starter, got over 60% of 2nd-4th times through the order.
On the other side of the coin, there is a DH penalty for most players. I'd guess the Astros want Alvarez in LF as much as they can get without risking his availability for the postseason as Alvarez is the best LF on a per PA basis. When Alvarez is healthy, I gotta assume the Astros play the tightrope of wanting Alvarez fresh (playing DH) and wanting to let the big dog eat (playing LF).
The Astros coaching and scouting staff were concerned about his lack of strike zone control going into the season and even during the season. They worked with him a lot on pitch selection and game calling. I hope he improves his plate discipline, he certainly is talented enough to do so and is actually still a fairly raw player. At it is - his OBP is too reliant on his batting average, and that can lead to real problems. Mike Piazza is an example of a guy that improved his plate discipline with time and improved his game.
I think the Astros ideally need to scale back Alvarez' time in LF. He is still capable, but he was not as good in LF this season defensively, and they really ideally get his at bats from the 400-450 range, into they 550 range. Hell he has only had over 500 at bats once in his career. He can play some in LF - he has been playing about 50% in LF the last few years, I think that needs to be cut to 25%. As far as selling it to Yordan, I see him on the fact that he will help the team getting 550 at bats, and if he does that he also has a legitimate shot at an MVP. Yordan is a very rare player - he is capable of absolutely carrying an offense....... and already, at 26 years old, he has had 6 playoff series where he has had an OPS over 1.100 ..... save the wear and tear on his body, let him DH and get a competent, and more healthy bat to replace Michael Brantley. The best suggestion I have heard is Mike Yaz, but there are going to be other options out there.
What appeals to you about him? Hasnt he had 2 down years after that great rookie season? I want to say the Giants havent even played him regularly in the outfield.
He sucks defensively in LF. Chas's career hitting numbers are as close to Alvarez as a DH as Alvarez as a DH is to Alvarez in the field over the last three years. Alvarez in the field is the best hitter in baseball by far. On having 550 ABs, the healthier he is, the scarier he is. The scarier Alvarez is, the harder it is for him to get pitches to get an AB instead of just a PA. Based on 2022 Alavarez (scariest version), he's going to need 158 games to get to 550 ABs. I don't know if Alvarez fully healthy and scary is capable of getting to 550 ABs.
This right here was my biggest gripe with Dusty's usage as far as playoff AB's. Diaz struck out in some big spots against the Rangers, but he was also rusty as all hell. You don't give Diaz a great to succeed in that spot after not getting in in-game action.
A Meyers/Yas platoon would likely hit above average even assuming a non-perfect platoon leaving Pena as the only spot in the order that wasn't above average hitting.
Not that rotations line-up this precisely throughout a long season - but if he wasn't catching out best pitchers, he likely wasn't facing the opponents' best pitchers often. And based on how Dusty managed him, and the things he said about Diaz (the whole, "you'll thank me later" bit), he very clearly was making a concerted effort to hide him. I suspect that may have been a driving force behind him disappearing in the postseason: I don't think Dusty had much faith he could hit better pitching. Anyway, I think next year, he's likely going to see better pitching more often, so we'll see how he adjusts to it.
That's what I would do. He needs to play 140 or 150 games. He should be the primary Abreu backup at 1B imo
