In all seriousness, it is hard for catchers to shake the bad with pitchers label, and pitchers are prima donnas. St. Louis had a mediocre pitching staff getting mediocre results. Of course they are going to blame Contreras. Probably Contreras contributed to it as he's not a great defensive catcher, but the pitchers were likely the biggest problem outside Montgomery...who was great with Contreras. Not a primary concern, but I really hope Diaz does not get the reputation Contreras has.
The pitchers had better stats with Diaz than Maldy all around. Their was a very thorough breakdown that suggested Diaz was the much better pitch caller too. Of course we know he is significantly better defensively and just slightly better framing (much higher ceiling in that department considering he's just a rook). I honestly think the "pitchers only want to Maldonaldo" rhetoric was Dusty propaganda because we never heard from the pitchers own mouth. If they're directly asked about Maldonaldo, of course they're going to praise and compliment him. I remember a radio interview with Pressly that was heavily edited to make it seem like he preferred Maldonaldo over Diaz. His real answer was that it didn't matter to him who caught him. They're both good and have their own strengths. But the Diaz part of the answer was spliced out and then it was posted all over Astros twitter and the narrative was pushed by asshats like Michael Schwab and Bonda. Also Maldonaldo was never Verlander's personal catcher. That was Robinson Chirinos in 2019, then he was out 20/21 and then Castro personally caught him in 22 until his career ending injury 2/3rd of the way through the season.
Why would Houston trade for expensive Diaz (Contreras) when they have….cheap Diaz already. Unless there’s behind the scenes issues we’re not aware of, just give him the keys and find a second C who’s not on an albatross deal.
It’s true - I talked about it before it leaked. Having said that, he is fine not being the primary catcher.
I get that Contreras is a good hitter…I just think from a roster construction standpoint, he’s a luxury we cannot afford at this stage of our window. If we didn’t have Diaz, I suppose it’s a different question, but with Diaz I just don’t see how it makes sense. Even putting aside the fact that he didn’t have eye popping offensive stats last year (maybe due to his injuries last year, idk, perhaps another flag), I just don’t love the idea of having to trot out both of our catchers on a daily basis to extract that value. Contreras will be 32 at the start of next season. We all know catchers notoriously don’t age well. Plus he’s on the books for 4 more seasons at almost 18 mil per year. That was a contract I am glad the Astros passed on last offseason and I’m not too interested in them picking up the backend now. I would like to think there are better uses of our finances and roster flexibility, if any, as Contreras could hamper it more than unlock it.
I would probably do this trade and look for another SS in FA. I think you could get by with a combo of Dubon and Kessinger, but it's too risky to have them at SS for a full year. IMHO
Trading guys like Urquidy, France, Meyers, & Pena would be a huge mistake. They are all at the low point in their value. Under new management I expect all 4 to recover a lot of value this coming season.
I would throw in Urquidy to get Contreras. There's enough pitching in the minors to come up with 7 or 8 starters needed for the regular season.
My ideas and preference for position player roster construction. C) Diaz 121 gs, TBD 21 gs 1B) Abreu 121 gs, TBD 41 gs 2B) Altuve 138 gs, Dubon 24 gs 3B) Bregman 154 gs, TBD 8 gs SS) Pena 128 gs, Dubon 34 gs LF) McCormick 104 gs, Yordan 34 gs, TBD 24 gs CF) TBD 112 gs, McCormick 50 gs RF) Tucker 154 gs, TBD 8 gs DH) Yordan 120 gs, Diaz 18 gs, Altuve 16 gs, Abreu 8 gs. 9 players set. 4 players to fill the following: TBD = 21 gs @ C TBD = 41 gs @ 1B TBD = 8 gs @ 3B TBD = 24 gs @ LF TBD = 112 gs (vs RHSP) @ CF* TBD = 8 gs @ RF *In 2023 113 g vs RHSP, 49 vs LHSP Needs: 4 spots Backup catcher corner OF/1B type CF vs RHSP Versatile bench player who can play 3B I would love them to trade for a guy like Nolan Jones or Brendan Donovan to cover the corners and a guy like Mickey Moniak would be an affordable CF who is good vs RHP but unplayable vs LHP (won't be needed w/ Chas, Dubon, and possibly Meyers on the team).
I agree on Pena. Gold glove SS who are prearb don't grow on trees. Urquidy may be at lowest value so not good idea to trade unlike France who is probably at his highest. Both should be traded if they can get good value as neither will ever be even a #4 starter and are easily replaced. Meyers still could be a star but with Dubon and Chas on the roster, he is just another CF who hits LHP but not RHP. He is too much like them to fill a roster spot and should be traded and a better fit brought in for CF.
I think the Giants are a good fit as a trade partner. They have a new manager and have indicated a goal of being less platoon dependent for starting position players and improved defense. They have a top prospect looking to be starting SS with little depth behind him and very little proven rotation depth behind top 2 starters. I think Mauricio Dubon and Jose Urquidy would low key options that could help them fill holes without taking away from their pursuit of high dollar FA Ohtani and Bellinger. They are both proven high floor low ceiling MLB players who provide depth the Giants need badly, but should be replaced easily from within the Astros organization. Mike Yastrzemski appears to be exactly the type of player they are looking to move on from. He completely mashes RHP but is severely below average vs LHP. The Astros have several options to allow him to sit vs them. By metrics he is a league average outfielder in all 3 spots so can take over the large side of a platoon in CF. The other pieces that may interest the Astros is Luke Jackson. He is a proven semi-leverage reliever who is not quite as good as Neris but than Stanek with the high K "stuff" teams love. The Giants look to be quite deep in the bullpen and he looks to be down in the pecking order and therefore expendable in the right deal. Dubon ($3.1M per mlbtraderumors arb estimates) and Urquidy ($3.5M) are still controllable for multiple seasons at reasonable projected salaries. Yastrzemski ($7.3M) also has 2 years, but at a more elevated cost due to a history as a regular starter. Jackson is under contract for $6.5M for 2024 w/ a team option for $7M ($2M b/o) for 2025. Based on this salary and his lower bullpen role for the Giants, he actually looks to have negative excess value which makes it a good deal for SF, while he would have more value for the Astros in a higher leverage spot. It would be easy for the Astros to throw in a rule 5 eligible lottery ticket or 2 like Misael Tamarez and/or Justin Dirden if the Giants value Jackson more than the numbers say the value should be, as Pete Putilla is very familiar with those prospects. So the trade fills 2 of the offseason needs while adding about $7M in salary but without any long-term commitments. What do you guys think?
I don’t think it’s a good idea to count on any position player for more than 130 games in a season. Players over 35 or with extensive injury history should be counted on even less. Championship clubs these days need to be 11-12 deep with players that can justifiably play every day if needed. Players who don’t meet that bar should be pencilled in as 12th or 13th guys that are expected to only play ~60 games in favorable situations/matchups. A roster needs about 1500 total games worth of players to get thru a full season with substitutions, injuries, and scheduled days off. 130 games: Diaz, Pena, Bregman, Tucker, McCormick, Dubon 120 games: Abreu, Altuve, Alvarez 60 games: Meyers, Singleton, Salazar, Kessinger As-is they’ve only got about 1400 games worth. They probably need to replace Salazar and/or Singleton with 1-2 players who can capably play every day. Joc Pederson and Victor Caratini would be my choices from the list of free agents based on expected contract demands and Houston’s expected payroll flexibility.
The pitchers' argument for Maldonado isn't that he make them *better* necessarily. It's that they're more comfortable with him. I'm guessing what the pitchers' are locking onto are likely things behind the scenes: work Maldonado does with them, individually; his preparation; his experience; his knowledge of the league; his knowledge of the pitchers, themselves - all of that and likely more give the pitchers greater peace of mind. But at the end of the day, whoever the catcher is, the pitcher still needs to execute their pitches, and too few of the Astros starters could do that this year. That's not the catcher's fault, per se - and, likely, the results in the postseason weren't going to change because of Diaz.
I have no qualms spending Jim Crane's money but ... Yanier Diaz can play first (how well is another question). He certainly could play the majority of games Abreu sits. I am sure Yanier's knees will be thankful. He might even be fresher at the end of the season going into the post season. Backup C looks to be a FA roster fill. There are usually a number of older veteran Cs in FA who are looking for backup money. That leaves the biggest hole which is in the OF, the Brantley roster spot. CF in particular ... that has a positive WAR against RHP. If we could live with a negative WAR, the Astros have Meyers (and Pedro Leon in the minors). Meyers and Leon fit the glove first CF role. Dubon might have a slightly better bat with slightly lesser defensive value versus those two. Finding a backup CF who can hit a little in FA may be looking for a unicorn. Trading might be the best bet, but might require a painful amount of assets going out; unicorns are not cheap. You mentioned Yaz, but he might want to play 120+ games. For the other part time positional needs, internal options would give a chance for the farm hands to show if they are above replacement level players ... like Joey Loperfido, Will Wagner, Shay Whitcomb etc. ... some of which might be blocked by better players on the major league roster. These player have marginal trade value now, but could build trade value with MLB experience. The Astros are also losing three bullpen arms, though I would like Maton to be re-signed ... but the free market might make even Maton too pricey for the Astros. The Astros might want to go hunting on the trade market to see if they could land 7/8th inning arm. Click was able to find Maton (and Yanier) with Myles Straw. Luhnow might have even gotten Pressly for less (Gilberto Celestino, Jorge Alcala) than that.
