Dude, are we having the same conversation? My initial post was the antithesis of panic. Why is your response panic? The initial post was trusting the potential pitching staff. Thus, instead of worrying about adding BP, using the money/assets towards an LF baller. Did you read what I said?
Pitching surplus lol If this year taught us anything it should be that you can never have too much pitching
2024 payroll. My thoughts are that Jim Crane will go over the CBT to win, but does not exactly want or plan to. Therefore, I fully expect this team to start the season below that $237M level then add to it at the deadline to shore up any weaknesses if the team is in the playoffs hunt. Per Cots Contracts, the Astros CBT payroll last year was $228,852,645. This was $4,147,360 below the threshhold and 11th in MLB. The Astros have steadily fallen from 2nd in 2020 to 7th in 2021, 9th in 2022 now 11th in 2023. This year the threshhold goes up $4M to $237M. Big picture, the Astros are good on the field, having lost only 2 position players and 3 bullpen arms to FA, with none of them being stars. This is a savings of $30.65M. Off the field though this has its problems. The payroll looks to increase despite these loses. 1) Verlander and Graveman were brought in at the deadline so the Astros only paid a prorated amount of their salaries. Even with the money the Mets are paying, this increases the 2024 payroll by $19,326,165. 2) The Astros don't have any extensions that go into effect next year (yet) but several arbitration eligible players will get raises. According to Cots Contracts, these players ( Framber, Tucker, Chas, Urquidy, Dubon, Luis Garcia, and Bryan Abreu) are estimated to raise payroll by $19,232,300. None of them look to be released candidates, either. This leaves the 2024 payroll less than $2M from the CBT. This team has some holes, but not tragic ones. They should still be able to compete until the trade deadline but likely will be a touch below the true contenders. As it sits, the backup catcher is either Cesar Salazar or a prospect with no MLB experience. The outfield would consist of Chas, Tucker, Meyers with Yordan, Dubon and possibly Julks pitching in. No worse than this year, but 1 good bat vs RHP short of a truly good outfield. There are several talented OF who will be rule 5 eligible if not added to the roster, but none give confidence they can play a major role in 2024 - Barber, Corona, Dirden, Daniels, Brewer and Adolph are the most known of these. Pedro Leon and Joey Loperfido could also be options. Then there is the bullpen that is 3 strong with dependable established guys and a dozen who have been going back and forth between MLB and AAA. Complicating matters is that there really isn't any player who makes significant money, that isn't vital, and can bring back talent to fill these holes without adding payroll. It will be interested to see what the Astros do.
Kyle Higashioka has been mentioned here before and he looks like a good target. Apparently the Yankees have 4 catchers and need to trade 1 or 2 of them. Of these 4, he is the best option for the Astros as far as expected performance in 2024 and affordability. He will be a FA after this year and projects to make between $1.6M (Cots Contracts) and $2.3M (mlbtraderumors) in his final arbitration year. I think that a couple of talented lottery ticket type prospects would get it done. I think Justin Dirden has the left handed power that the Yankees always look for. For the other, I'm thinking Jaime Melendez who is out of time and been passed up by too many arms in the Astros system. Both are rule 5 eligible so the Astros don't really lose anything but are talented and experienced enough that they could play in MLB for the Yankees this year.
Teams are aware that Diaz is a free swinger and that he never walks - the problem is that it doesn't matter, because Diaz is a bad ball hitter, he can crush pitches outside the zone.
I think they move pitching depth for players under club control pre arbitration. I would consider JP France for Zack Thompson to have a lefty in the pen and replace the body of Neris opting out. If Hunter Brown and change could get you Luis Robert I think Crane pays into tax... would have to be more than a rental like Soto...
You believe one is a head case... and you believe the other is always injured and overpaid... and yet you still feel you'll get decent returns for them? Not really going to debate Framber much more as it seems like you know you're overreacting to his downfall. I'm actually more bullish on LMJ this year that he finally had the procedure. If he can come close to his last full year after surgery (2021, best year ever), he will once again exceed his yearly contract. They need pitching... especially the guys they actually have. You get rid of those, without replacing them with actual similar production, and they'll be in trouble again on that side of the ball.
I agree that this team has starting pitching to trade. It's not that they have 8 top of the rotation guys. It's more like they have 8 bottom of the rotation guys. I think 2023 was a huge outlier for starting pitcher injuries and that won't happen again. Even if it does. The Astros had 10 pitchers start games in 2023 + Lance McCullers. Every one of those guys are still on the roster plus there are guys like Arrighetti, Rhett Kouba, and Misael Tamarez not to mention Forrest Whitley, who are in AAA and likely to perform at least as good as Blanco or Dubin if given a spot start due to injuries. I think that right now this team has: 4 clear cut 1-4 starters- JV, Framber, Javier, and Brown. 2 guys who have proven themselves to he dependable bottom of the rotation arms - Urquidy and France. And a bunch of guys who are interchangeable and trading away several of them to fill holes would benefit this team. Also, France is probably at his peak trade value. He really pitched well above his ceiling based on stuff and history. To me trading him and using the glut of JAGs to fill the #6 rotation spot makes sense. Furthermore, McCullers could be available sometimes, maybe early or late in the season, we don't know and Garcia likely shortly after the all star break. Both of them would move into the rotation above France and Urquidy if they are stretched out and healthy. Let's say the rotation is 6 man: JV, Framber, Javier, Brown, France, and Urquidy. If one of them gets hurt, will any if us think the season is over if Bielak, Blanco, and Dubin were all traded and Tamarez needs to be brought up instead? Same if McCullers is in rotation and France had been traded.
Maybe see how 1st half season goes and if we are in it then goooooo. And if it all collapses then begin the unload... we could get some tasty prospects at the deadline with 3 or 4 unloads. Get Gilbert and Melton back! Either we rock n roll. Or we implode and reload. Goooooooo Strossss!!!!
If they can land Robert, I wonder if they try to clear more money and have Robert, Alvarez, Abreu recruit that Yariel Rodriguez guy. Robert was already at his showcase the other day.
Pitching surplus lol If this year taught us anything it should be that you can never have too much pitching Betting on all the pitchers to get, and stay, healthy is never a good bet. 2022 was a huge outlier in that regard And Lance is one of my favorite players, but any list that is counting on him as a starter simply isn’t a good list. Could it happen? Sure, and I hope it does more than most. Garcia is mid season at best If we had better depth on the farm I would be more comfortable moving starting pitching, but if we did it now it would have to be a deal that I felt we were just being offered too much to turn down
3 of Houston’s top 9 prospects (Arrighetti, Gordon, Kouba, per mlb.com) are starting pitchers slated to begin 2024 in AAA. There are 2 others in the Top 30 (Tamarez and Melendez), plus several other older/faded prospects who have flashed pretty high ceilings (Whitley, Blanco, Dubin, Solis, Macuare). So there are 10 guys who should begin 2024 in AAA with some measure of talent. None of them project to be ToR SP but there’s a very good chance several of them will be solid 4/5 starters. Stashing those 10 still leaves 9 guys slated for the big league roster (Verlander, Valdez, Brown, Javier, Urquidy, Garcia. McCullers, Bielak, France). Between 19 guys, I think Houston can afford to trade 1-2 from the MLB group that doesn’t include Framber or Verlander. They should have super high prices on Brown and Javier, but surplus cheap big league pitching is pretty much the only asset Houston has to leverage to improve their roster.
Sincerely hope you're right. But I wouldn't bet on it. I'm not trading them for nothing and with the money you would save you could afford Nola and hopefully get a young pitcher like Brown in a trade for Framber. BTW, I dont think Framber will be traded. But they have to address the pitching issues and you cant count on LMJ/Garcia to answer these issues. IMHO
I do too but I don't see that happening. I think/hope with the whole season off, he might go a year without being hurt. Other than the Phillies world series game where he was tipping pitcher, he actually pitched pretty well last season he played.
