Some random thoughts ... Neris, who is 34, may get closer money in FA. I would like to have him back next year. I wanted Montero back last off season, so there is that Brantley, who is 36 and who just sported a 724 OPS in his injury shortened season, appears to be on the decline and to be an injury risk. This might the off season that the Astros part ways with Brantley. I like Maton in middle relief, at the right price.
Nah. Short of injuries the Astros will be very good. They will have an excellent offense, with Diaz, Abreu, Altuve, Bregman, Tucker, McCormick and Alvarez. It isn't a mystery what happened to Valdez and Javier this season. They have pitched a lot the last couple years, and in the case of Javier, he needs to actually have an off season training plan. The Astros also still have Verlander.... and a host of other possible options to fill out their rotation - including Garcia and McCullers likely coming back in July. Even with all the injuries and turmoil around Baker - the Astros were very close to winning a World Series this year, when no one else has done so in almost 25 years. I suppose Crane could not spend money this Winter, and the Rangers coming off a World Series run could go absolutely crazy again spending money - but the most likely scenario is that the Astros and Rangers are reasonably close going into the season. It isn't like the Astros are old either - and while the farm system is weak at the top, there are a surplus of assets at the MLB level that the Astros can move in trade if necessary. They have: Verlander/Valdez/Javier/McCullers/Garcia/France/Urquidy/Brown as guys that have shown they are starters - they can likely move some to the pen or in trade. What I have heard is that the Astros are not going to go crazy in free agency, but that they will target a free agent that will be expensive and fill a real need. The name I have heard over and over is Josh Hader or a starter....... there are a number of starters in free agency that are #2-3 types. We will have to wait and see, and it is really early - Brown still hasn't made his promotions and Crane wants a few weeks to digest the season, but I expect them to come up with a plan....... they both also know that the window is maybe 2 years away, so 2024 may be the last year they are elite.
Nah. Short of injuries the Astros will be very good. They will have an excellent offense, with Diaz, Abreu, Altuve, Bregman, Tucker, McCormick and Alvarez. It isn't a mystery what happened to Valdez and Javier this season. They have pitched a lot the last couple years, and in the case of Javier, he needs to actually have an off season training plan. The Astros also still have Verlander.... and a host of other possible options to fill out their rotation - including Garcia and McCullers likely coming back in July. Even with all the injuries and turmoil around Baker - the Astros were very close to winning a World Series this year, when no one else has done so in almost 25 years. I suppose Crane could not spend money this Winter, and the Rangers coming off a World Series run could go absolutely crazy again spending money - but the most likely scenario is that the Astros and Rangers are reasonably close going into the season. It isn't like the Astros are old either - and while the farm system is weak at the top, there are a surplus of assets at the MLB level that the Astros can move in trade if necessary. They have: Verlander/Valdez/Javier/McCullers/Garcia/France/Urquidy/Brown as guys that have shown they are starters - they can likely move some to the pen or in trade. What I have heard is that the Astros are not going to go crazy in free agency, but that they will target a free agent that will be expensive and fill a real need. The name I have heard over and over is Josh Hader or a starter....... there are a number of starters in free agency that are #2-3 types. We will have to wait and see, and it is really early - Brown still hasn't made his promotions and Crane wants a few weeks to digest the season, but I expect them to come up with a plan....... they both also know that the window is maybe 2 years away, so 2024 may be the last year they are elite.
So you're a run it back exactly the same kinda guy? Repeating the same things over again will likely give you the same result. You must believe LMJ and Garcia are going to comeback fully healthy and remain healthy throughout the season.
My thought on Pena for Azorena is that Alvarez part-time (against RHPs) and Meyers part-time (against LHPs and when Alvarez DHs) is a lot better than Azorena, and the Astros don't have to trade Pena (plus have Kessinger). It just seems like it would be much easier/cheaper to add either -a bat that could DH some as well as backup 1B and/or C; or -an OF that can destroy RHPs. Azorena is nice because he does hit RHPs above average along with being a destroyer of LHPs.
Making the right trades will allow the dynasty to continue. Also Brown doing what he did with the Braves farm system will help.
I personally would not resign Neris unless there are no other viable options or he doesn't get the money he expects in free agency. I respect that he is a gamer, and he will do anything the manager asks him to do - but I saw signs of decline. I would probably look at Matt Moore as an option, and if they are really serious about Hader, he would be a massive gain. I would take Brantley for very short money but that is it.... he is hurt too much.
How would you feel about Crane bringing in Montgomery and Chapman, then trading Framber and Pena for Arozerena and going with Dubon/Kessinger at SS? What Crane really needs to do is find a taker for LMJ's contract. Or Crane saying screw it and going over the luxury tax. Montgomery is more reliable than Framber.
Sign Jordan Hicks and/or Reynaldo Lopez and resign Maton for the bullpen. Sign Seth Lugo as a middle of the rotation guy. Let Neris and Stanek walk.
I would contend that not having Dusty as a manager is a big change. Also, there is a lot of luck in the postseason such that this year's result isn't bad from a roster standpoint as I expect the Framber will have a better ALCS next year and Chas and Diaz will bat more. I expect Chas to regress to his career numbers (which are still very good). Diaz....it could go either way to me.
Not that anyone cares --- but I personally think that I would do the following if I were the Astros. Make a really strong offer to Josh Hader over 3-4 years and try to get him signed. A bullpen of: Hader/Pressly/Abreu can be the best in baseball in the playoffs, and the Astros have enough starters that they can convert one to the pen if needed. If Hader is too expensive I would go hard after Matt Moore. Assuming Hader isn't signing, I would reach out to the agents for Ryu, Clevenger, Giolitto, Severino, Paxton and Montas and see if I can get one of them signed at a reasonable cost. They all come with risk, but also high upside.
Montgomery was more reliable than Framber this year, especially this post season - last year Framber was lights out. I personally would not trade Framber. I suspect the Rangers will overpay for Montgomery.
Considering one game short of a World Series where the remaining teams are sub-92 wins... the goal is get into the postseason and let Yordan do his thing. Expanded playoffs has really diluted the type of talent needed to just get in.
Not a believer in Diaz? I'm a trade Chas while his value is high guy if they can get a guy like Arozerena.
Brantley helps boost Sugar Land attendance numbers considering the number of rehab starts he needs to 'be ready'
I think 115-120 OPS+ is a reasonable expectation for McCormick. The increased power seems genuine. I suppose my concern will be how long can he play center.
