If the Black Sea fleet HQ had been destroyed, the Black Sea fleet had been removed from Crimea, and one of the Admirals was killed by Azeri troops in the Caucuses, does this mean Russia is going to use nuclear weapons? Because we and NATO said if you use any nuclear weapons we will retaliate by destroying the Black Sea fleet. But Ukraine did it on their own, and with British arms. https://www.the-sun.com/news/9153595/explosions-putin-black-sea-crimea/
Spending on Ukraine is not only possible because of "printing money." The US sells government debt to fund its obligations, also known as borrowing. In the last year+, the Fed has actually been reducing the money supply by increasing interest rates, the opposite of "printing money". The spending on Ukraine (~100B), in context, is relatively very small compared to: ~1T (US yearly defense budget) ~3T (Cost of the Trump Tax cuts) ~6T (Cost of the two Bush wars) ~8T (Cost of the war on terror) Inflation depends on many factors beyond just money supply, like demand, supply chains, velocity of money, and public perception. You have advocated storing value in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. While dollar devaluation is a risk worth considering, the dollar remains the dominant world reserve currency. Cryptocurrencies have high volatility, so while they may be considered as long-term investments, it would be extremely unsafe to put one's life savings there.
Well this is a cavalier way of putting it. FYI: When an austerity-minded person uses the word money printer, what they are referring to is the debasement of money. Reducing the money supply is done by allowing the debt to either default (student loan forgiveness), debase(inflation) or allowing the debt to extinguish/expire. When your Debt-to-GDP gets out of control (80%+. We are at 120%, historically average 65%) and interest rates go up, the high interest the bond holders receive start acting as an artificial stimulus. Reducing the money supply in itself is a meaningless number. Inflation is another way of saying money debasement. Depending on the way the money is debased, it will show up in different forms in the real economy, such as supply/demand (more dollars chasing goods, creating mismatches in the economy) and general liquidity. $USD being the world reserve currency is not an honor or privilege, its a great responsibility that effects the entire world. The world is going to get really unstable if we do not get debt-to-gdp to trend downwards over the next couple decades.
And the EU wants their cheap natty gas back. They're still burning coal as we speak and winter is coming. Qatar is meh. Azerbaijan so so long. US LNG expensive and likely unsustainable. Ukraine...a worthwhile investment. Just need to weed out Russian ethno-terrorists, extreme and endemic corruption, a fractured and divided nation, etc then roll out the red carpet for the EU! At this point, it's the "West" vs an Axis. That 100B is more than just defending Ukraine. It's a signal to our commitment to Taiwan, Japan, etc with Ukraine as a lower stakes deposit.
Don't forget Poland has taken more refugees than any other country in the world combined. They've destroyed their economy for ukriane and in exchange they get **** on by ukraine. Poland decided to stand up for their farmers one time and in exchange ukraine called them Russian stooges. The minute you don't give them everything they ask for they'll call you Russian and traitors. You can both support ukraine and still be wary of escalation! Life isn't zero sum!
Signs that your 3-day invasion of Ukraine is not going well: when on day 575 of your 3-day invasion, Ukraine is landing cruise missiles in broad daylight on your naval headquarters: At least the tourists got a good show though! Crimea vacation is the real deal.
@rocketsjudoka looks like biden has no intention of listening to my plans and he's all in. I hope yall are happy and it works out honestly. I support ukraine I just don't want trump to win.
(doesn't fit in this thread but anyway... ) The claim that reducing money supply is accomplished through debt default, inflation or debt expiration is an oversimplification. While the Fed can influence money supply through quantitative easing, many factors contribute to the actual money supply, like bank lending and reserves. The Fed does not fully control it. Student loan forgiveness does not inherently reduce money supply. Forgiven loans involve already existing debts, not new money creation. Banks write off bad debts regularly without contracting money supply. Inflation does not actively "reduce" money supply so much as devalue existing money. But tying it solely to money supply ignores other inflation drivers like supply shocks. Allowing debt expiration may limit re-borrowing but does not actively decrease money in circulation. Money created through lending is not necessarily retired when loans are repaid. While high debt-to-GDP ratios are absolutely a valid long-term concern, it doesn't automatically equate to extreme inflation and debasement. Japan, for instance, has a debt-to-GDP ratio over 250%, far higher than the U.S. Yet it has struggled with deflation, not high inflation. This shows high debt alone does not guarantee inflationary effects. Factors like a country's borrowing costs and perceived stability also matter. Currently U.S. debt financing costs are still historically low despite rising debt levels. It's true inflation leads to money debasement by reducing purchasing power. However, the causes of inflation are more complex. Supply and demand imbalances can drive price inflation, but not solely due to more money chasing goods. Factors like supply chain disruptions or resource scarcity play roles too. Liquidity relates to money supply but is also influenced by broader financial conditions, investor confidence, etc. More money in the system does not automatically create liquidity issues in all assets. The money supply's relationship to inflation is debated by economists. For example, the quantity theory of money is disputed. Inflation can rise without money supply increasing due to other factors. Historical monetary expansions have not always led to sustained high inflation contrary to what the "more money, more inflation" view predict. "Printing money” == bad is too simplistic
Yes because as stated Biden himself understands what is at stake in Ukraine and also why he can’t just simply stop aid to Ukraine. That said it wouldn’t surprise me if there is back door diplomacy going on and likely there are a lot of discussions happening that are not public knowledge. Also while the war in Ukraine has been more than a year now wars are rarely resolved quickly. Where the war is this time next year might be very different.
You have a much more positive outlook for the world than I do. Seems like youre on the optimistic side of most things
I think that depends on how you define “optimism”. In regard to Ukraine while I do strongly support the Ukrainians cause and think it is inline strategic interests my disagreement with you has more to do with Realpolitik than it does optimism. Realistically I don’t think we can expect fast progress by Ukraine on the battlefield and personally I don’t think they will be able to drive Russia from all of the country. Halting aid even if Biden wanted to is fraught with many other problems and as stated he can’t just unilaterally do so or compel the two sides to agree to a lasting peace or even a ceasefire. I think that expectation was simplistic and unrealistic.
Lol YouTube scrubbing the polish zelensky story impossible to find the videos I was looking for. Even when you search it it’s videos 5 months prior about this the poles had their hearts stolen the media machine is strong
People need to stop giving a free pass to the fascist trash boys like The reason why Tucker, @Commodore , Matt Gaetz, Rand Paul, Lauren Boebert @Space Ghost etc complain about military aid to Ukraine is not because of cost - they don't care about that at all other than for credulous capitol posturing... ....the real reason is that they like Putin and want Russia to raze Ukraine and help destroy democracy worldwide as they have made explicitly clear, many many times.
