This 100%. The Astros expect both Garcia and McCullers back by the second half of the season next year. Agree on Javier. The do need to make sure he is exercising and stops eating the crap he ate this past off season - he cannot keep surviving on McDonalds and pineapple juice. Valdez isn't exactly Justin Verlander with his build, but Valdez does do strength training in the off season and limits his diet- and it shows. Urquidy needs to learn from Valdez and get in tip top shape, it would likely had another MPH or so to his fastball too.
Thank you for confirming this…. Javier’s lack of commitment to fitness and lack of a proper training regimen/diet is fairly clear given that he never had any sort of real arm injury throughout this season where yes, he didn’t get much of an off-season break, but he started the season as strong as anybody. He’s back to 2021 levels where they had to limit him during the season because they felt this would happen… and now apparently (at least one start ago), he can reach back and find an extra gear. Baffling that he got his contract extension with the team knowing this… or maybe that’s exactly why he signed his contract extension when he could.
I would love to add Burnes, and he is someone the Astros have liked in the past - but I don't think they have the prospects to make it happen.
I'm not surprised they extended him. To be clear, he does what they ask him and he is really good at studying pitching, etc. However he hasn't really transitioned to a better strength building/nutrition plan and he is at the point he needs to. They increased his workload and for the first time it really "broke" and he lacked the strength to keep his velocity up. He is 25-26 years old now, and the weight can start to add up a bit. Javier is really big on having a loose arm, he isn't ever going to be built like Clemens or Ryan or Verlander - but he can certainly improve his stamina and strength. I don't expect him to ever be a horse, that isn't his style - but I do expect now that he is paid and established, that he will take his training more serious. I know a lot of people are going to knock Javier for the contract and performance this year - but I believe some of this is on the Astros. They let him pitch in the WBC, and then they did not really handle him right after his control got a little spotty and the velocity dropped. He should have been shut down and put on the IR and let his arm rest.
The only players I can see working in this deal are: Tucker, Diaz, and Pena. If they extend Adames then Pena isn't realistic either and Diaz isn't really a fit with Contreras there but of course they would like his bat. The only thing I can see working there is if Tucker refuses another extension offer, the Astros decide Tucker is gone regardless and Burnes agrees to an extension as part of the deal. Then Tucker would bring back Burnes + pieces
Yeah - I don't see the Astros moving their players under contract past 2025. There are too many players that will be do for free agency at that point in time. The only exception would be if Crane and Brown decide that a tear down is needed - which, based on what is in the high minors, is still possible IMO.
Nook is there any possibility of them bringing back Neris? Will also be interesting to see how Pressly does down the stretch and in the playoffs. Any possibility of them trading Pressly and making Abreu the closer? I know some team will throw some $$ at Neris but I would love to have him back next yr (or another two yr deal).
Nook is there any possibility of them bringing back Neris? Will also be interesting to see how Pressly does down the stretch and in the playoffs. Any possibility of them trading Pressly and making Abreu the closer? I know some team will throw some $$ at Neris but I would love to have him back next yr (or another two yr deal).
I don’t see how a tear down could possibly be in the plan. They only have 3 bad contracts (Abreu, Montero, and McCullers). The Astros will be contenders AT LEAST thru 2025 when they lose Framber and Tucker in free agency. At that point McCullers will be the only bad contract on the books and he will only have $17M/1yr left, hardly a reason to tear things down. They will still have star players under control in Yordan and Yainer, along with guys who could potentially take the next step in Pena, Brown, and France. Even after aggressive arbitration estimates they project to ~$130M payroll with an ~88 win projection for 2026 (offense built around Yordan, Diaz, and McCormick, with Pena/Meyers/Dubon role players; pitching built around a rotation of Brown, Javier, Garcia, France, and McCullers). With ~$100M to spend and 3 years of drafts on top of what’s already in the farm, I can’t imagine a rebuild being necessary while they still have Yordan, Brown, and Diaz all under control.
I don't think it is likely - but I will not rule it out either. I agree on the 2025 date, after that I think it is possible if the farm is not producing promising players. The Astros are going to win 91-92 games this year. It is possible they can be in tough spot. Yordan's health can be dicey and a lot of things can happen.
My impression of the post 2025 team (presuming they let every current team controlled contract expire without a single extension) is very similar to how the Astros were during Berkman/Oswalt times. They still had Carlos Lee and they called up a very good Hunter Pence. Had Wandy and Albers coming up from the farm. That core by itself seemed enough to be able to build something around… but was largely unable to withstand injury or give players rest. They even traded another decent bat (Scott) in order to get Tejada, which was largely the epitome of a “chasing it” move. Granted, those teams weren’t drafting well for years… but given that the major talent in the farm won’t necessarily be here as soon as 2026, it’s a similar predicament. Their window will still largely depend on whether Garcia/Javier (and possibly retaining Framber) can continue to anchor the rotation throughout their 20’s/early 30’s. If they can, they should certainly be able to build around whatever is left in the lineup surrounding Yordan/Diaz. If the rotation is still a big question mark… a tear-down (or repeat the 2007-2010 seasons) is very probable.
The main difference is that Crane has shown he’s willing to consistently field a top 10 payroll, unlike McLane. Unfortunately Crane does look like he’s willing to gut the farm in pursuit of a ring; he has overridden his GMs several times to make trades involving top prospects. It remains to be seen if top payroll and player development (and luck) can overcome that.
But he’s only been willing to do that when he’s got a clear window to win. He could have spent more in 2016 for a team coming off a playoff appearance, but they chose to stand pat and not make any “chase it” moves at the deadline. Then they certainly spent more that off-season… added Verlander at the deadline… etc. And he’s traded top prospects or young controlled players for the likes of Verlander (twice), Cole, Greinke… and the Vasquez/Mancini trade resulted in a title as well. I can’t really fault him, and while they may have been “top” prospects in the eyes of prospect-lovers, they really haven’t lost out on that perennial all-star type (including Musgrove) with all the talent they’ve let go. McLane actually did have a much higher payroll for 2005-2010 relative to what he did earlier in his tenure as owner (minus the Drabek/Swindell signings)… but he ignored the farm. They were top 10 in 2006 and 2009. I think Crane is not McLane…. He won’t chase it. If they can’t extend some guys and stay with a clear-cut window, he either sells the team or guts the team.
I was going to say something similar except I was going to add that the Astros have won 2 World Series causing Crane's profits to skyrocket as well as increase the value of the Astros in the $1.5-2B range. I am expecting the Astros to get some guys to get extended. I'm expecting at least one bad year in which the Astros can sell some expiring contracts to bolster the farm. Maybe not the king of the division, but I expect the Astros to be playoff contenders until 2029 except in year(s) with a lot of injuries. I think the Astros will have enough guys to give the farm time to heal over the next 3 years. The Astros depth is a lot better now than in the late 2000s.
Similar to the Cardinals model… including how they bottomed out this year but can easily replenish/reload with core pieces in place.
