The far right was already gaining before the war also most of the far right European leaders are tacitly siding with Putin. Your argument would essentially be to give them what they want.
Far right is winning in Spain, Poland, France, Germany the SNP just came back, argentina,baltic states. What are you talking about? Do you have any idea how expensive energy prices are in Europe? Folks expect working class folks to just pay for crazy energy prices with no end in sight. The entire far right message is look at the government they don't care how expensive your electricity bill is and they don't care. The idea that if the war ended the SNP and other far right parties would be glad is ridiculous. Their entire campaign is were going lower energy prices. How in the world would they be getting what they wanted if you ended the war. They would have no platform no more to spew their bigotry
I think this a key understanding point - It's in no one's best interest for Ukraine to lose any territory. The other side of this puzzle is that there is a growing sentiment that US citizens have no interest in engaging in another multidecade long war, risking spillage in other parts of the world. That said, I haven't seen anyone suggest that Ukrainians should stop fighting. However they have no right to demand aid from anyone. We are not obligated to fund their war.
The bigger point is that zelensky can secure a better long term deal for his country now than any other point. Why risk your country's future in an upcoming election which you have no control over.
Crippling Russia is a small victory. Cripple them too much and the population will become (more) anti-american. Pushing China and Russia together is the ultimate failure. Together they make a formidable trading partner that compliments each other well. We do agree on the strategic importance of energy. Alienating a significant portion of global supply absolutely has dire effects, such as the ones you mentioned. Putin is part of the old regime that infects so many countries, including the US. Removing Putin is imperative to rebuilding relations between Russia and the West. Unfortunately too many people continue to call him incompetent and underestimate his goals. Again, I don't have the silver bullet. Perhaps a 10 year ceasefire would be most prudent, hoping Putin steps out of power and a more reasonable leader steps up and steps back.
Except you’re forgetting that far right people and parties like Orban won election before the war. The rise of the far right around the World has been happening for years now. I can agree with you that high energy prices are probably helping but it’s clear that issues like immigration have driven the far right back even when energy cost less. what I still don’t get from you is how exactly does Biden end the war? You accuse others of being disengenous yet you bring up things like that Russian actually wants peace and would accept something like holding onto to current gains in exchange for Ukraine jointing NATO. That’s completely speculative. There are no facts actually showing that they would accept that. If anything Russia has said Ukraine jointing NATO would lead to a much larger war. you still haven’t answered how Biden even unilaterally within the US could stop or withhold congressionally mandated aid to Ukraine..
We’re not in a multi decade war. You act as though us sending aid to Ukraine is the same as US troops fighting. Ukrainians can certainly ask for aid. We give it to them not out of the goodness of our hearts but because it is in the US interest to do so.
I do understand your point and it's valid. While I'm not a prophet, the China/Russia relationship will allow Russia to continue this war for a long time. Like the T-34, Russia, with the help of China,can spin up a war machine that will spit out more adequate munitions than the west can keep up with. I would feel better if we were doing this out of the goodness of our heart. Our 'best interest' has not served us well. Often, it's special interests who benefit the most.
Yes on Orban but the far far right have never been more powerful than they are now in Italy, Spain, Portugal, SNP aka NAZIS in Germany is raising, france, baltic far right are more powerful than ever before, in Poland the far right just won. None of these leaders in the far right are running on any foeign policy agenda. The entire far right platform is the government doesnt care for your needs, your electric bill is too high and the government is focused on others. Its a bigotry hateful message thats resonating with majority of ppl simply due to energy costs. This is why the transition to green is so damn important. Living in a carbon free environment will reduce the risk of facism because unfortunately the great tool for Fascists have always been cost of living arguments mostly rooted in energy and/or housing. The way to end the war is to have a frank conversation with zelensky and tell him the dangers of Trump. Convince him that its in his best interest to secure peace before the next election because Trump is a facist. Putin literally said yesterday that he would be interested in peace talks but it was Ukr that were conducting the offensive. Im not saying Putin is 100% saying the truth but it starts with convincing zelensky.
The idea that if the US stopped supporting Ukraine tomorrow, the war would end, oil would drop to $50, and the far right parties would disband or lose steam is such a ludicrous theory. Not only is this an unlikely theory but your own reasoning consumes itself. If Trump is a fascist, a victory of their fascist allies on the battlefield (due to cowardice on the part of democracy) only helps them, not hurts them. You see how these horse race arguments go? Lots of permutations - no certainty Therefore - do the right thing, fight the fascist ****s
*Nobody* is advocating for pulling the rug under ukraine. Nobody. My point is that whether you like it or not trump and the GOP are in the pockets of putin. It's also a fact that bidens approval rating is literally tied to gas prices. I'm not stating you end the war to help bidens approval rating. I'm saying you find a peaceful resolution to the war because the alternative is ukraine not being a country no more. Ignoring every poll that shows how people are mad at energy prices and how trump is gaining ground bcz of it is ignorant. Nobody in this thread has any sort of exit plan or strategy how to end the war. It's just let's celebrate Russians dying amd Ukrainians gaining ground. I also celebrate this but at some point you have to think of a exit plan when the alternative is no more aid and being thrown to Putin.
That is not a fact - let alone a "literal" pne. It's a correlation that shows in certain *opinion polls* and not others, in which there's also a huge number of confounding variables Further these opinion polls aren't that well correlated with future election results, and are becoming more divergent and less predictive over time - look at the last few elections.
While Russia and China currently have a strong relationship, history suggests Russia is unlikely to sustain decades-long conflict in Ukraine given the current international pressure. When the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979, they faced no serious international sanctions. Yet after 10 years, they withdrew in 1989. Russia originally aimed for a quick invasion to overturn Ukraine's government, not get bogged down in a prolonged war. Russia now faces much stricter economic sanctions and global criticism for its invasion of Ukraine. With the economic burden and political isolation, Russia will have a harder time maintaining the military, economic and political capacity for sustained fighting as you suggested. The reality is Russia's position has weakened, making a sustained long-term war effort unlikely despite some assistance (to relief economic sanction) from China today. Even with allies, history shows Russia will struggle to conduct lengthy warfare.
Invading its neighbors is the history of Russia and goes back further than Putin. Plenty of Russians are celebrating the death of Ukrainians, it maybe due to propaganda but they are still doing it. China, Russia, Iran, and NK have been moving closer together before the invasion. China and Russia were trying to break apart US alliances before the invasion. Russia was involved in Brexit, which I’m sure you don’t want to acknowledge either. The fact is these countries are actively trying to weaken us so they can get stronger.
Nah. Clearly Ukraine is trying to make as many gains as possible to strengthen their negotiating. Things are improving in Ukraine’s favor. You make a big assumption about the timing of all of this, as if Zelenskyy doesn’t negotiate NOW then he’s risking this and that.
Im not saying he needs to negotiate now? Im saying he needs to negotiate before Putin orders another round of mobilizations and takes a hit politically at home. Once putin orders another round of mobilization he will have zero incentive to agree to a ceasefire cuz he already took the hit at home. Ukraine counter offensive started 4 months ago and they've taken less than a few miles. Winter and rainy season is coming up around the corners so I would love to hear from you how they've going magically break now when they havnt been able for the past few months? Again im not blaming UKR for their slow offensive because Russians have heavily fortified their defensive lines. Nobody in this thread again has any sort of plan other than, "destroy facism" and "kill russians." Thats fine on paper if we didnt have a election next year with a demagogue and fascist on the ballot.
An excellent interview about the current situation in the Ukrainian War. After the first 15 minutes or so, the focus turns to the meeting between Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and North Korean despot Kim Jong Un - how it shows the level of desperation of Putin that he has to turn to North Korea for assistance and what he might get from Kim.
Your rhetoric suggested otherwise. Russian causalities cause a political hit at home.... folks just don't forget that their loved one(s) didn't come home. The more Russian casualties, the worse politically for Putin so ordering another round of mobilization can be a double edged sword. I'm not some armchair general or someone who plays master geopolitical strategist via twitter. It is slow progress... but it can certainly snowball into something more favorable if these starts happening increasingly: Ukraine’s Forces Try to Punch 2nd Hole in Russian Lines But maybe it stalls out again. Taking this thread a bit too seriously if you feel like the solution is on CF. Clearly, everything you believe is geared towards keeping Biden in office. I don't want Trump either, but some of your cause and effect is speculative. There's still time.
