[Official] Astros @ Rangers

Welcome back; hope all is well!!

Go 'stros!

 

I have a few friends that are actual, non-fair weather Rangers fans (which are hard to find), and they have been pessimistic about this season from the jump. They knew there was a degree of overachievement that would eventually level out. Also, they are still so sore in the nuts from David Freese they refuse to get their hopes up for anything. They really do assume the worst.

 

The line-up I'd like to try, but will NEVER SEE:

1 RF Tucker* 374 OBP
2 3B Bregman 370 OBP
3 DH Alvarez* 970 OPS
4 2B Altuve 969 OPS
5 C Diaz 538 SLG
6 CF McCormick 516 SLG
7 LF Brantley* 260 OBP
8 SS Pena 325 OBP
9 1B Abreu 295 OBP

 

I didn't get a good look at Kuhnel until last night - that flat bill off to the side Fernando Rodney/CC Sabathia look is soooooooo outdated. C'mon man nobody does that anymore.

 

The only issue I have with this is that I would move Abreu to 8th and Pena 9th. Abreu has been very good at driving in runs and I like Pena's speed in front of the big bats.

I also may swap Brantley and Chas to punish managers who bring in a LHRP to face Brantley but that's 50/50 because Chas should get as many PAs as possible.

 

They wouldn’t feel bad for us

 

Abreu has a higher rbi total than his awful slugging% and batting average would usually yield. He has had lots of rbi chances too. His total of 66 is pretty crappy for a 1st baseman who plays every day and makes 19 million. What is his batting avg with runners in scoring position? I would wager that it’s not that impressive.

 

They have reason for pessimism. Not only are their hopes of even making the playoffs fading for 2023, but they have committed a LOT of money until 2027.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/texas-rangers/yearly/payroll/

Basically, they have about $100M committed in 3 players until 2027 and $140M in 4 players for next year.

I suppose it depends on how much luxury tax their owner is willing to pay, but their payroll flexibility for the near future looks gloomy.

 

Once they commited to Seager/Semien, they were going to be win-now. They did stockpile some decent prospects over the sucky years, and they have an owner who has had high payrolls before.

The Astros have already withstood/outlasted other intra-division cores that were thought to have a chance of winning (2017-2020 A’s, Angels). Now they have to stave off the Mariners/Rangers.

Would be pretty cool to see the Astros continue to hum along while they end up forcing all 4 teams to have to re-consider their strategy during this golden era.

 

At the All Star break they had it going and then the bottom just fell out. Half the team were All Stars and they made some good moves at the deadline, its crazy how fast they fell

 

Oooops.

 

Rangers are in ok shape if their owner is willing to keep spending. Langford and Carter are primo OF prospects, they’ve got their infield set. Their farm is good enough to provide a steady stream of BP arms. So how good they will be is likely to be determined by how healthy their SP stay and if the owner is willing to spend money to replace them if/when they get hurt or reach free agency.

 

The bottom of the order is hardest. I don't want Brantley hitting 9 in front of Tucker so I just put him in with three righties ahead and two behind him. Penas speed ahead of Tucker does make sense. So 7 Brantley*, 8 Abreu and 9 Pena?

I do believe Abreu is much better than he's shown so far. He's still hitting the ball hard. At some point, the worm will turn. Abreu ahead of McCormick works too.

 

i'm a tottenham fan unfortunately lol.

i'm happy with maddison thus far.

 

What is the Astros record against Scherzer? He is as good or better than Verlander. Might be hard for either team to score runs tonight. Astros need to get back into the Ranger's bullpen, obviously.

I found it. 5-1 in nine appearances, 2.98 era. Struck out a bunch.

 

Baseball reference says 16.3% of runners on base when he comes up to bat have scored (which is below his career 18.6%). His productive out percentage is 24.4 which is well below his career 32.6%.

This doesn't really take into account where those runners were or how many outs there were, etc. and I don't have any idea how meaningful a stat these are. For comparison 2023 Kyle Tucker is at 18.5% and 34% respectively (similar to Abreu's career numbers), '23 Altuve is 15.9% and 20%, and '23 Maldy is 8.2% and 38.5%.

 

Abreu has decent numbers in the clutch.
RISP- .256 avg, .338 OB%, 7 HRs
2 Outs- .289 avg, .331 OB%, 6 HRs
2 Outs & RISP- .403 avg, .460 OB%, 6 HRs
Inn 7-9- .255 avg, .312 OB%
vs, over .500 teams- .253 avg, .309 OB%, 6 HRs

 

We average 9 Runs a game at fake fans home park this year. One thing for sure, we may not hit 9 tonight, but I don't expect us do much less than 9. I think they have a home run friendly park where lighting is good for hitting.