We see this a lot with baseball fans, I think - they tend to conflate intention with results. There were certainly viable quibbles with the Abreu deal at the time (too old; too long, etc.) - but it was - *at the time* - a wholly defensible deal. A very good player addressing a very big need that, if it works out the way you intended, extends your championship window. And, honestly, if he proves healthy the rest of this year and can be the .800-50+ OPS guy you thought you were getting, helping lead a long postseason run........ I'm not sure he wasn't worth it. I'd have to think if there are other/better examples - but, to me, the two big free agent misses were Correa and Montero. Those were deals in the moment that didn't make sense. You never pay top dollar for a middle reliever - those are, really, a dime a dozen and your system is probably going to spit those out yearly. Correa's situation was complicated - but he was the one homegrown free agent I think you basically throw all the rules out for. I wish they could have locked him up - even for 1-3 years.
Right this minute - neither Abreu nor Montero gets the contract that they received, but I do believe that there is a realistic chance that both prove worthy of or close to being worthy of their contracts. Abreu had an injury - granted it is the back, which is a concern - but it is an injury that as far as we know can be resolved. Now, he is a first baseman and he isn't someone like Olson or Freeman - he is more of an .820 to .900 OPS guy based on his track record. Perhaps, even if he has an .850 OPS going forward, someone can claim it is an over pay - but if it is, it isn't by much, assuming he bounces back. However, he also didn't require a trade or any loss of assets to acquire. So I think that the Abreu signing has been a downer so far but has a decent chance of working out. Rafael Montero has been two different pitchers this season. He was excellent in April with an era around 2.00, and then he absolutely imploded in May (12.21) and June (8.10), and then has been very effective in July (2.30) and August (2.61). So the question is which pitcher will they have going forward this season and the next to seasons. The Astros (like everyone else in baseball) desperately need high leverage arms, and Montero has proven he is capable of being that. He is also a high strikeout pitcher. He makes about $11,000,000 a year, and I don't really think that is an over pay for middle reliever with high end stuff. It is possible that both Abreu and Montero end up as bad signings, but we are not at that point - this isn't an Anthony Rendon or Strasberg situation where we know they are toast.
I don't want to lose Bregman, but if it means Crane was agreeing to an 8-10 year deal to keep Tucker, I would be down. I just don't think he will. Hope i'm wrong, really do
They did - he brought in: Maton/Neris/Montero/Stanek Maton missed the post season. Stanek did not figure in much in the post season. Neris was solid and Montero was very good. The signing of Odorizzi and Baez were bad though.
I am not sure why you are including these guys as Click players: Michael Brantley Verlander They were here before him. In 2022: 8 of the top 10 pitchers by war were Luhnow players. 10 out of top 10 Hitters by war were Luhnow players Diaz deal does look good.
For all his bad signings, he will make up for it with the WS wins and Diaz. Diaz may go down as a fleecing only behind the Alvarez trade. With Alvarez, you can say the Dodgers had no data on him since he was young and barely there for a few months. With Diaz, everything he has shown was in the scouting report. A well above average bat and athleticism that was only limited by his baseball IQ and his ability to be coached.
This is an ongoing debate, but they were both gone. Free agents talking to other teams. Both could have gone anywhere else they wanted with ZERO commitment or requirement to stay in Houston. Click (and Crane) negotiated and offered contracts and they chose to return to the Astros after they had already left. I did not include Lance or Pressly because they signed extensions before they ever became free agents.
Altuve wasn't a Luhnow player if were doing the here before he got here thing. Verlander was a free agent,the Astros without Luhnows imput outbid other teams and brought him back. As last offseason showed retaining him was never a given. So was Brantley. I'm glad Click wasn't as obsessed with making the MLB club "his team" as fans are. A lot of GMs would have traded players that would become part of the 22 core for proven MLB players.
I'm just glad he kept the players that were on Luhnow's team from the year before. Traded Straw for Maton/Diaz and rebuilt the bullpen. Click added to Luhnow's work. Brown understandably hasn't done much to this point.
