While Crane deserves a ton of credit for what the Astros have achieved to this point, if there is blame to be passed on the current situation, that is on Crane also. If Brown doesn't have the power to make Dusty do what Dusty needs to do, that is on Crane. If Crane does nothing, that is on Crane. Dusty and Maldy are catching the lions share of the blame right now. But both those problems are Cranes to handle also.
Comparing this year’s team to last years champions: wRC+ for top 12 position players: C: Maldonado2022 70, Maldonado2023 54 1B: Gurriel 85, Abreu 75 2B: Altuve2022 164, Altuve2023 170 SS: Pena2022 102, Pena2023 91 3B: Bregman2022 136, Bregman2023 116 RF: Tucker2022 129, Tucker2023 143 CF: McCormick2022 114, McCormick2023 146 LF: Brantley 122, Julks 81 DH: Alvarez2022 185, Alvarez2023 158 UT: A Diaz 96, Dubon2023 81 C: Vazquez 67, Y Diaz 115 OF: Meyers2022 65, Meyers2023 91 FIP of pitching: Valdez2022 3.06, Valdez2023 3.44 Verlander2022 2.49, Brown 3.94 Urquidy2022 4.60, Blanco 6.15 Garcia 3.93, France 4.03 Javier2022 3.16, Javier2023 4.59 Odorizzi 3.61, Bielak 5.27 Montero2022 2.64, Montero2023 5.30 Maton2022 4.33, Maton2023 3.70 Neris2022 2.35, Neris2023 4.46 Abreu2022 2.12, Abreu2023 3.36 Stanek2022 3.02, Stanek2023 4.09 Pressly2022 2.61, Pressly2023 3.33 Obviously not apples to apples and there’s 6 weeks of 2023 season left. But interesting how much worse the RP have been (overuse?). Also maybe this team has missed Brantley more than it’s been hurt by Abreu or Maldonado offensively. Team might be a lot better off if they’d signed Bellinger, Conforto, Pham, Gallo, or Jankowski instead of Brantley.
wRC+ for top 12 position players: C: Maldonado2022 70, Maldonado2023 54 1B: Gurriel 85, Abreu 75 2B: Altuve2022 164, Altuve2023 170 SS: Pena2022 102, Pena2023 91 3B: Bregman2022 136, Bregman2023 116 RF: Tucker2022 129, Tucker2023 143 CF: McCormick2022 114, McCormick2023 146 LF: Brantley 122, Julks 81 DH: Alvarez2022 185, Alvarez2023 158 UT: A Diaz 96, Dubon2023 81 C: Vazquez 67, Y Diaz 115 OF: Meyers2022 65, Meyers2023 91 FIP of pitching: Valdez2022 3.06, Valdez2023 3.44 Verlander2022 2.49, Brown 3.94 Urquidy2022 4.60, Blanco 6.15 Garcia 3.93, France 4.03 Javier2022 3.16, Javier2023 4.59 Odorizzi 3.61, Bielak 5.27 Montero2022 2.64, Montero2023 5.30 Maton2022 4.33, Maton2023 3.70 Neris2022 2.35, Neris2023 4.46 Abreu2022 2.12, Abreu2023 3.36 Stanek2022 3.02, Stanek2023 4.09 Pressly2022 2.61, Pressly2023 3.33 I didnt change anything, just color coded to make it easier to see whats happening. Red = Worse Green = Better
Really the more I look at it the more it becomes clear that injuries are the real story of this season. Brantley, Garcia, McCullers, and Urquidy (not to mention Altuve and Alvarez) getting hurt really bled thru across the entire roster.
Wilson Contreras with 2.4 WAR so far this year on his way to 3. It sure would have been a tragedy to sign him this offseason as I was told over and over in April and May. You could have played him 120 days, Diaz 45 at catcher and 100 at 1b and just went ahead and passed on signing Abreu and it all would have been less money. Really, you could have done anything other than consent to play Maldy 80% of the time and it would have been better than nothing. IF that would have happened then not having a LF bat would have been way less important as C and 1b would have been good.
This is no doubt about it balls on accurate. Crane has set up a terrible org chart where he has a guy tasked with running baseball operations but that seems to be subordinate to the guy that should be his direct report and under his supervision. He needs to fix that and fix it for good and forever this offseason. It's absurd that it's been operating this way for 3 or 4 years and created the dysfunction that hit has that Nook has described, that ran Click off (in large part) and that makes Dana Brown look like an impotent cuck. It's horrifically bad leadership. We've also seen Crane have a horrifically bad winter as the acting General Manager. He needs to go back to hiring quality GM's and then backing them up and getting the baseball ops on the same page and it needs to happen like 3 days after the last out of the Astros season.
The Brantley signing was the most indefensible move of the off-season, imo. Guy's not even healthy and it was an injury to a shoulder that he has had severe problems with in the past.
Yes indeed. I hated the Montero move and said as much at the time but I flipped out and lost my **** at bringing Brantley back- not just the waste of 12M but the waste of an ability to use the roster spot in a good way. Of course- I looooooooooved the Abreu deal (and the extension for Javier- who has really gone backwards) so at best I'm 3/4 and maybe 50/50 That beats the Astros offseason though for sure. Worst off season since we've been good? I think so. It's sort of ok though as we have a gimme this offseason. Extend Tuck, find a good LHH bat that hits RF well to play LF, extend Altuve and let Maldonado and Dusty walk and this team probably wins 110 next year, so it's hard to completely melt down over the last offseason- even if it definitely qualifies as an unforced error it doesn't hurt the club in 24. The worst thing it did was make it necessary to trade our top 2 prospects. That will either be no big deal (because they bust or we develop replacements that are close to as good) or really bad. We won't likely know that for like 5 or 6 years though. Unless we win a WS in large part due to JV, in which case none of that matters we win the WS which is the point of the whole thing.
I'm referring to slight regression from when he was at his best. Yes, he's not expected to be the hitter he was in July for an entire season... but part of managing is to weather the downswings of a player the best you can. He's still basically playing everyday, minus the day he was hurt (and got an extra day the game they scored 11 runs without him). I'd still prefer no Yordan in the field and Chas/Meyers in the OF full time... but that prevents Diaz from getting in the lineup when Maldonado is catching somebody who requests him (at this point, likely just Framber/JV)... so it still boils down to the decision to have him in the lineup.
Where the Astros currently are in the standings has nothing to do with who they did or did not sign this off season. There are 9 position players on this roster that, if played consistently, would have this team leading the AL West and most likely in position for the #1 seed. The current record is 100% because of the manager doing a **** job of choosing who to play, deciding the lineup, and when and who to use in pitching changes. They are 3 1/2 out in the West and 6 1/2 out of #1 seed. Abreu has a 75 OPS+ and outside of a few weeks to start the summer, has been awful. I get that he has a history and was a big money signing so should get a long leash, but he has started 103 games at 1B and hit cleanup in 52 of those. Julks has an 80 OPS+ and has had some hot streaks but even when he was producing, the underlying numbers showed it was smoke and mirrors and he was not good. Yet, he has started 57 games in LF and another 17 at DH. He also has leadoff in 1 game and hit 2nd 3 other times. Dubon was a god send while Altuve was injured and played way over his head, to the joy and thanks of us all. But he has fallen down to a 81 OPS+ yet has still started 21 of the last 33 games since his OPS+ has fallen below 100. He has led off 60 times and hit 5th once and 6th 3 times. He should start 2-3 games per month unless Altuve or Pena are hurt and should never see any time outside of the 8th or 9th spot in the lineup. And that does not even consider Maldy and his 53 OPS+ starting 87 games while Diaz has only started 29 at catcher. If Dusty would just limit bench players to a few starts per month and hit productive players in priority spots in the order then this team would have 7+ more wins and have the best record in the AL. Dusty needs to not have his contract renewed out of incompetence
I find it highly doubtful the Astros would be in the same spot if they signed different players. If they had signed a healthy LF, maybe not playing the lucky charm in Julks would have cost the Astros games. Maybe having a legitimate LF would have helped more than the luck Julks brought. I'm not sure Maldy doesn't ask to be traded if Contreras was brought in. This is a very different team if Maldy isn't catching.
But if they signed a LF, then does Chas breakout? I agree that having a veteran LF brought in over Julks helps this team, but I don't think Chas breaks out if he is only playing CF and fighting for playing time at just 1 spot. As for Contreras, if they sign him then he becomes Diaz. Maldy starts when Framber and Javier, and now JV start at the very least. He may ask for a trade but I don't see it actually happens- Dusty and the SP like him too much. Contreras start 25-30% of games at C and more at LF and DH just like Diaz who is stuck in AAA or traded. This team has the players to win. Dusty just refuses to sit the ones who keep hurting the team.
Oh it has !!! To be fair, though. I have always WANTED Diaz to catch as much as possible. I was guilty of "drinking the coolaid" and believing that there was benefit to Maldy's catching though. Not 100% but thought there was more than most fans believed or acknowledged. But I'm over it. Whatever Maldy brings, Diaz more than makes up for with his bat and glove.
One of Maldy's strengths was that our pitching staff seemed to prefer him, particularly JV. I wonder if that has changed?
It really shouldn't matter. But, if Urquidy went to me and asked for Maldy to catch him I would send him on the first train to Sugar Land this year (if he has an option left) and trade him to Detroit or Kansas City the first day of the offseason for a bucket of balls. Then I'd be like "hey- does anyone else have any demands as to who catches them?"
