Alex Santos II showing signs of life. Another good outing tonight and now his last 5 appearances have been pretty good: 19.2ip, 30k, 11bb, 15h, 7er. Not amazing but a marked improvement from his first 3 months of the season.
They were working with him a lot outside of games. His swing and balance. He also had some hamstring issues. They are being very deliberate with him and not pushing him at all. I would speculate it is his age and the fact his body has been pretty radically changing. He is noticeably faster than last year and was pretty aggressive on the bases. Lots of upside and potential - but unpredictable as a prospect.
Yeah - feast or famine prospect. Serious concerns about his feel for the game as a hitter, his pitch selection and focus - but the quick bat speed, athleticism, power and athleticism are all real. Will he be Barry Larkin or Andujar Cedeno? I would just say people need to be patient with him, I suspect he may even need to repeat a level or possibly two. Fans (and the Astros) want more high potential outcome prospects and players - like Matthews, but the bust rate is a lot higher. Both of the Astros first two picks have exceedingly high ceilings - but it’s also possible neither of them make the big leagues.
Spoiler 1. Jacob Melton 2. Luis Baez 3. Joey Loperfido 4. Zach Dezenzo 5. Brice Matthews 6. Spencer Arrighetti 7. Kenedy Corona 8. Shay Whitcomb 9. Justin Dirden 10. Alonzo Tredwell 11. Andrew Taylor 12. Colton Gordon 13. Miguel Ullola 14. David Hensley (uh, sure) 15. Michael Knorr 16. Camilo Diaz 17. Colin Barber 18. Zach Cole (well, they're super high on him) 19. Will Wagner 20. Cam Fisher 21. Pedro Leon 22. Quincy Hamilton 23. Rhett Kouba 24. Nolan DeVos 25. Chase Jaworsky 26. Jose Fleury 27. Trey Dombroski 28. Alimber Santa 29. Forrest Whitley 30. Esmil Valencia
Still having Dirden at 9 is pretty crazy. Unless he’s been hiding an injury nobody has talked publicly about, he’s a very fringey prospect at this point, with a wRC+ of 73 across 468 pa at age 24-25 in AAA. I think they’re too low on Barber.
It is a combo of the Astros being devoid of elite higher level prospects with the trade of Drew Gilbert - and then having a lot of potentially good lower level prospects, but none of them being sure things. Right now, with so much uncertainty, the Astros farm system is pretty bad. I still think that their production will out perform their rankings - but it makes it very hard for someone - especially a publication that relies heavily on hype to rank the Astros prospects in a linear list. For example, Colton Gordon is certainly ahead of Justin Dirden. Also, having Jacob Melton at the top demonstrates this point....... he is about to turn 24 years old and is only in "A+" with a sub 250 batting average and a strikeout a game. He has tools, but if he is the top prospect - then there are problems.
About to turn 23, but yes, he's not exactly a great prospect, though I like the top 7 of the list overall. Barber being that far down the list is surprising to me, despite me being pessimistic about him. To not have him in the top 10 seems excessive.
Melton was my guy I hoped got dealt. Seeing him on top of the prospect rankings is not great, therefore, from my perspective. might well, I have said in the past I will start worrying a little more about the Astros farm when they stop graduating a productive MOR guy at a minimum every year. Framber- 19, Javier & Urquidy 20, Gardia 21, Brown 22, France 23, spaghetti feels like will get there in 24. Hell, maybe it’s Whitley. I know you’ll appreciate that. As long as that happens we will be fine and can fill in other places. The fact is we have one hole to fix next year (LHH that can DH/LF against RHP) and that shouldn’t be a super tough one to fill. And back up catcher I guess. We have until 25 to produce or trade for an infielder to play 3B if Bregman doesn’t extend and we have Loperfido up high. I think we can get there to turn over Bregman into someone younger and cheaper who is an answer. If not you can always bite the bullet and extend Alex.
I am trying to have faith that starting last year and probably thru to next year is the doldrums of working through having lost 4 top draft picks. But they can’t keep trading away their first rounders every year less than 2 years after they draft them, that is not sustainable at all no matter how good they are at development. That said, I still believe the farm is underrated (although it is now well below average after losing Gilbert and Clifford), and I believe the pipeline will still continue to put out major leaguers: 2024: Loperfido, Dezenzo, Leon, Hamilton, Kouba, Gordon, Whitley, Macuare 2025: Barber, Corona, Melton, Wagner, Knorr, DeVos, Melendez, Brown 2026: Baez, Matthews, Fisher, Whitaker, Tredwell, Taylor, Dombroski, Fleury, etc. 2027: Jaworsky, Ochoa, Gomez, Huezo, Diaz, Valencia, Perez, Luciano, etc.
