Yes exactly. When people talk about shooting splits they usually hold out "50/40/90" as the mark to shoot for of an efficient- nobody says "40/30/80" as an indicator of anything extraordinary. Similarly -23-3-3 - great. He basically hit his season average (22-3-3). Why is a tiny variation here significant predictor? If you're going to make a statistical case, make the case, don't just toss off a tiny snapshot and tweet "the leap is COMING" like @Reeko / TV Dad's original tweet or Xpost or whatever the **** it's called now
Yeah, if you score 30+ in 1/3 of the games and only average 23.7, there must have been some real stinkers in there as well.
You'd have to average around 20 ppg in the other 2/3rds of those games. But ya, second year 20 year olds tasked to be primary scoring options are inconsistent. Shocker.
50 40 90 rarely happens. Wtf are you talking about? The two players competing for goat status(MJ and LeBron) don't have a single 50 40 90 season in their career. So no that isn't the mark of efficiency. That's the mark of an elite shooting season that few people on high volume do. Players like Steve Nash or Steph Curry do that and even then in the modern era of 3s, even guys like Steph Curry will struggle to reach that 50% mark just because of how often they take 3s. Anyway why the **** are we talking about shooting splits? Efg% and ts%.
[ I agree with you here - 50/40/90 is rare and impressive. If Green did that over a 27 game span (against top 10 defenses or bottom 10 or whatever)I'd be willing to believe it's a precursor of something big I just don't know what to think about 40/35/80 statline that @Reeko / the original tweeter is flogging here. Seems very median outcomeish without a ton of predictive value. Hope I'm wrong!
I think what he’s saying is it is not that uncommon to see 50/40 in a cherry-picked 27 games. I’m leaving out the FT% bc 50/40/80 would be equally impressive in this discussion.
He upped his efficiency and volume against the top 10 teams relative to the rest of the league. Again his season average was 22 ppg 42% fg% I don't know what the ts% % and efg% was but I'm assuming if all three of the splits increases, then more than likely ts% and efg% increased. So if the narrative or someone on Twitter says that Green "only does well against bad teams" then data that shows his scoring and efficiency go up rather than down against the top teams says otherwise. No one says he played like an elite player against those teams. People are saying he played better the top teams than bottom teams. Ya Jalen Green isn't an elite superstar during his first two years in the NBA at ages 19-21. Omg. What a disaster.
It gets to a point where I'm praying that poster at this point is just trolling. Because I felt as if I just typed a response where I'm crouching down on my knees and raising the pitch of my voice to talk to a toddler because of the very basic obvious **** I had to explain.
Why is this dude still mentioning me? Idgaf about your thoughts on the tweet, go quote or mention someone who might actually care
I think it's irrelevant to the point of the tweet. It's based on combating a Twitter narrative that Green inflates his scoring average against bad teams. That's all. He wasn't playing like an MVP candidate against those top teams. He just did better relative to his baseline as a 20 year old sophomore averaging 22 ppg on 42% fg%.
I'm looking for Jalen to have roughly league-average TS% for a shooting guard (which would be around 57%) while still taking a high volume of shots and improving his defense. That's the kind of step you want to see on year 3 for a guy with his talent. Anything significantly short of that and I might start having some questions, but for now I'm still a Green believer.
There are two ways he can improve where I'll be content. Another path, due to so many mouths to feed, is his usage drops. He takes less shots but averages like 20 ppg but on like 62% ts and good defense. A 21 year old averaging 20 ppg on great efficiency on a team with above 40 wins is still projected to be a star to superstar. So he doesn't have to up his pt total. It depends on the offensive system and whether we distribute the usage more evenly which is a very big possibility because we have so many shot creators like FVV, Sengun, KPJ and even Jabari is going to start taking up some usage with his mid to high post game.
I think there's a distinction to be made here between his defensive performance and his defensive capabilities. His defensive performance (i.e. stats) is going to improve simply because the fort will hold better. FVV will disrupt some of the opponent's preferred offense. Brooks will harass wing scorers. Our rim protection will improve otherwise Udoka will demand changes. The team will be better defensively and that usually improves everyone's stats. If that's what we're looking for, I believe that's highly likely to happen. However when it comes to Green's defensive capabilities that's highly unlikely to improve quickly. It rarely does. It takes months and years of coaching and in-game trial and error to improve that. Doesn't really happen much in the off-season. I don't know if it's fair to expect Udoka to improve that very quickly. I don't think it's fair to expect it of Jalen (or any young bad defender really). If he's improved by the end of the season that would be about average. He's so raw defensively the the next step is just fundamentals: where should I be and how do I become part of a defensive unit/net. I don't anticipate him becoming a GOOD defender by league standards in the first 40-60 games of this season. I know people are going to judge him early anyway, but I'm anticipating that so it's cool. I'm pretty sure he will be the worst defender in the starting lineup and I'm fine with that. Just need him to take steps. Hope to see these baby steps happen but at least we'll be done with this nonsense about him being the worst defender in the NBA judging be ultra noisy stats.
Once Jalen turned it on he looked fantastic. Looking ready to take that leap. Pretty impressed with Chet, he does look like the unicorn he's tipped as. Looks more like it than Wemby to me if I'm honest.
