Serious question.... are you mentally okay? I'm serious that you need to do a blood test. Your levels are way off
another inflationary land mine averted UPS and the International Brotherhood of Teamsters reached a tentative contract agreement, https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/ups-teamsters-contract-agreement-response-reactions/689105/
According to a recent report by the University of Michigan US consumers have been feeling a whole lot better this summer as inflation has continued to slow. The Federal Reserve's favorite inflation measure — the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index — rose 3% in June from a year earlier, a slower pace than the prior month's 3.8% annual rise. Meanwhile, the core index rose 4.1%, down from a 4.6% rise, during the same period. The Fed has been trying to cool the economy to bring down inflation still running well above the central bank's 2% target, so persistently strong economic growth might be a headache for the Fed. In a news conference following the Fed's decision to raise interest rates by a quarter point, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that another rate hike remains an option — if the economy were to strengthen, keeping upward pressure on prices. "At the margins, stronger growth could lead over time to higher inflation and that would require an appropriate response for monetary policy," Powell said. It remains unclear whether the Fed will hike once more in September or pause, but that decision will largely depend on what economic indicators show in the coming weeks. The Fed certainly wants to see core inflation continue to decelerate, but Powell routinely points to the labor market not being balanced. The tight labor market has been a source of inflationary pressure due to the role that labor costs play in pushing up consumer prices. A separate report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Friday showed that US wage gains cooled in the second quarter, showing some easing of inflationary pressures.
I'm rooting for everything to get cheaper. Which it will once the inevitable transition to a bitcoin standard is complete. A reduction in inflation is not that.
Be careful what you wish for because if your vision of bitcoin comes true, the price depression will leave us feeling extremely crypto-gloomy.
if the money supply is growing and prices are still falling, that is potentially an indicator of depression (or it could be productivity outpacing inflation, a good thing) under a hard money standard, prices will necessarily fall as productivity rises, and that is a wonderful thing
It’s not as simple as it seems. To put it in simpler terms, a constant, gradual decline in prices can eventually lead to a depression. This is why a slight amount of inflation is considered more preferable. However, in a hard money scenario, if things go awry (as seen in the Great Depression), there are very few tools available to manage the supply, leaving us to endure the depression until it self-corrects.
Last time that happened, it was stagflation during the oil crisis. When Nixon pulled the us out of the gold standard, it was also a wrecked period but not a depression. Who really knows though. Is there really a generational cycle, or does that model need to be expanded internationally? Currently the Fed is seeing the limits of their rate policy because "prices" mean a whole lot of different things. Some industries benefit from higher rates though many gave up prudence after a 15 year period of low rate policy. Then you have the trillions plus deficit spending that's propping up a supply limited labor market. The behavior reminds me of the housing market in the sense that there was supposed to be a "Silver Tsunami" of boomers downgrading family homes into easier to manage townhouses or condos. Instead, the upward mobile boomers are buying 2nd homes through their mostly paid 1st homes. Seems like a demographic trap in the next 5-20 years where once boomers start dying off or are forced to sell equity the assets around them will slowly correct in price. Meanwhile younger generations are priced out (for another 5-20 years??) and need government assistance to make daily living through credit possible. And to stave this off, we're going to have even more liberal immigration policy, though I think we should've reopened visas for educated immigrants the moment Biden took office. We still want the "good ones", right?
It has always been transitory or made so. In the 80s, after inflation dropped from double digits, a 4% rate was deemed acceptable and perfectly normal. Throughout the last two decades, a 3% rate was considered fine. It was only fairly recently, around 2012 or so, that a 2% target became important, though we occasionally miss it. I can’t recall which Fed chair said it, but one of the recent chairs emphasized the importance of price stability over a specific percentage, meaning avoiding economic recession and higher unemployment. It would be maddening, imo, if the Fed pushes too hard for a 2% rate and triggers a hard landing.
