No they don’t. Or they wouldn’t be doing something so objectively stupid and indefensible. but what you are screwing up is you are ascribing the full might and power of astros decision making to something stupid where Dusty, a conclusively stupid person in a strategic sense, is probably acting as more or less the Lone Ranger in doing it this way. With the complicity of a couple starting pitchers. Looking for baseball players to get strategic decision making correct is a fools errand and has been more or less conclusively proven a billion times over. what you see in talking about astros decision making is the gut feeling of a mathematically illiterate manager who has the reins of the team right now and nobody else in the org has the desire to fight a battle against that right now when he is, in all likelihood, a lame duck. Have you never been around any political infighting in an organization before? That is what every passive aggressive comment from click and then Dana brown are and that’s what the response of media sloppy blowjobs after the no hitter represent. And this being an organization made up of humans I’m sure there is some respect and admiration for how maldonado prepared and an appreciation for the good times that have happened in the past that militate towards people holding their fire throughout this lunacy. But, the fact remains that if you flipped their catching time there would be roughly a 4 WAR difference between them and we are currently 1.5 games behind. So the math and realize that this one simple decision could cost the Astros the division.
We can just agree to disagree. The Astros havecearned the benefit of the doubt in my mind. Multiple people have stated specific benefits Maldy brings (unlike playing time and lineup decisions that Dusty must pull out of a hat) and none of it is statistically driven so for us to say it's untrue is pretty egotistical of us. I am not willing to say I know better than them when they give an actual reason that I have no data to use in combating it. 4 World Series and 2 World Seties Championships in 6 years means they have earned the benefit of the doubt in my mind. It still makes me nuts though. I still want Diaz to start, I just am not willing to say there is no good reason to play Maldy.
It isn’t “them.” It’s Dusty. Find any quote from anyone in the front office and maybe we can talk about the brilliant organization telling us there is magic data we can’t see. But they don’t say it, because they know it isn’t true and the last guy to publicly fight with Dusty is gone despite winning the World Series. Even if they did say it (and they don’t), that data is trumped by the actual, observable results - which are all that matters. Because there is “data to use in combating it.” WAR, OPS, passed balls, caught stealing, etc. On field results are not subjective, and the process to get there either results in better outcomes or it is irrelevant. This just isn’t debatable. “They won the World Series, so everything Dusty does is infallibile” is just an insane position. To then say everyone else who disagrees is clueless is just as arrogant as you claim we are. Agree to disagree it is.
Dana Brown was on 790 earlier this week after the no hitter on Wed morning and they essentially asked his thoughts on Maldy/Diaz…he all but confirmed even he thinks Diaz should be catching. He kept saying “Dusty likes having him in there” etc. instead of WE like him, etc.
Yep- Dana Brown does a lot of "Dusty says" or "Dusty likes" when you listen to him talk. You have to listen to the code for a while to figure out whose saying what and what the subtext is, but once you get it then it becomes pretty obvious. Dusty does the same thing too the other direction. He's basically admitted to the fact that he doesn't really run the pitching staff or bullpen nor does he have lineup authority in the playoffs in years past. Not that he's without input, just he doesn't have final say the way he does some random august.
Your hubris on this is really something. The Astros organization…notorious for its win at all costs nature and cutting edge analytics. Everyone including Crane has acquiesced to Dusty and his love of Maldando? Do you think you want to win the World Series more than Crane does? Do you think he doesn’t know all the metrics you point out day after day? It’s not a ****ing mystery that Diaz is way better at all the things we as fans can measure. It seems easy for you to just think this is Dusty being an old has been that’s completely out of touch. But that stance requires thinking the rest of the organization including the owner is either idiotic or too spineless to force Dusty to play Diaz. Or how about Verlander…it is fait accompli that he will want Maldy. Maybe the most competitive guy in all of baseball. He’s a moron too? I just don’t get why you can’t see that there must be something all these people that want to win more than you, get paid millions of dollars cause they are better at baseball than you might see something you don’t. For the record it seems obvious to me Diaz is way better. But I don’t have a podcast so maybe I’m not qualified.
I think the solution is simple. Have Maldonado catch when Verlander and framer are on the mound. On those 2 days, bench abreau and have Diaz play first. Then let Diaz catch the other 3 starters. If we go to a 6th starter, Maldonado can catch the 6th starter (prob urquidy) and Diaz can get a day off The veterans gets their catcher, and Diaz gets to play. It's bad enough that Maldonado play but it's worse when abreau is also playing so this way you add a better bat and who knows the 2 day rest (or 1 day if he dhs) might also help abreau. Now when am I getting hired by the stros
Again... Maldy wasn't Verlander's catcher until Jason Castro literally couldn't play any more. And then the franchise wanted to ease in Lee and buried Yainer when the rosters expanded plus Dusty wanted Vazquez to "learn the pitching staff first"... all of which should have been done through playing time when the division championship was locked up but... home field was prioritized.
Verlander and most pitchers just want what they are used to. It's a comfort thing more than a win at all costs thing. Otherwise Maldy would sit.
The Astros score more runs with Diaz as catcher. A primary reason is that the catcher when Diaz catches is a better hitter as measured by most offensive stats. The Astros give up less runs when Diaz catches. Part of that is because the catcher is better at blocking and throwing by most defensive measures. The Astros or Dusty can know a lot more than me about baseball, but those are the facts. If they believe Maldy is a better defensive catcher, it has not manifested itself on the field this year in preventing runs better than when Diaz is catching. You can have an opinion that Maldy is a better catcher, the facts are it doesn't show up on the scoreboard. Maldy may be valuable in the dugout that affects the game even when he's not in the game. That is coaching and not measuring how good a player he is.
Big picture on this season: I'm pretty darn happy with Yainer's season this year. On the offensive side, he's been a pretty well rounded bat cep for some over-aggression/low-walk problems. He's been damn good on defense too. Yeah I get a lot of people think he could have been used a lot more this season and that's certainly reasonable. But I just don't get why everyone has to be so whiny about everytime diaz doesn't play. This season is already like a solid 70-80%ile outcome for his rookie season.
Because I want us to make the playoffs and win another World Series? He's one of our better bats, he's plays our worst offensive position, and Dusty has demoted him back to part time player since Yordan came back. 10 games, 5 starts. Along with Chaz (finally became a full time player the last month) Dusty has repeatedly played lesser options over the course of the season. If we win the division fine, but that's not a given now and we've possibly left a lot of runs on the table.
Given the amount of injury and underperformance do you think there was ever going to be a situation where the Astros ran away with the division again? Not gonna pretend to love Dusty's moves but the Stros are still in pretty good position. Going full throttle through the regular season only to be burned out in the first round isn't a great option either. I think getting Yainer acclimated and then well rested enough to make an impact in the playoffs will be a good strategy in retrospect.
Nice post. That line of thinking applies across many areas and applies to many things. Except for those insider types, nearly all speculation is derived from what the media says. And that in of itself, isn't reliable. And so much of the analysis from it is also prone to being at the least, incomplete and at other times, just plain wrong. There are those that can read through the media stuff and make a reasonable assessment to what is correct and not, but those in the trenches with these players will know things we never will.
Go read what Dusty said Sunday. It was kind numbingly stupid. Now he’s saying he’s making a statistically valid argument for sitting Diaz against LHP while completely ignoring a sample size of 61 AB’s means more or less nothing, and ignoring the expected stats to boot. there is nothing about this decision making that is analytically based. It’s holdover baseball superstition and nonsense. Does that have a place in the game still? Sure. I heard Theo talk about how his biggest mistake was not having a closer for a while and trying to use pitchers in maximum leverage role. Said everyone hated it and any juice wasn’t worth the squeeze on that one. That’s imminently reasonable. Giving up 5 wins on the year by playing Maldonado all the time over Diaz doesn’t fall into that category. It’s too much. You are talking about sitting an all star caliber player (he’s on pace for 4 WAR per 600 PA’s and that’s with half his AB’s coming as DH- if it was all at catcher it would be more like 6 WAR) while maldonado is -1 WAR. It’s a colossal difference. And- the pitchers give up almost 1 run more pitching to maldonado than Diaz, even though he gets all the Framber spots in his back pocket.
JV has limited opportunities remaining to win 50 additional games and become the next (and possibly last) 300 win pitcher. He also is notoriously competitive. He has the clout to ask for Diaz if he thought it would increase, or Maldy decreased his chances to win.
