Crane has to pay Tucker, Framber, or Bregman for this argument to hold up, otherwise his double-backing would cost multiple top 100 prospects just to dump salary, some Tillman-tier antics.
Let’s go back to when Luhnow took over, because that is the birth of this “age of Astros baseball”. JD Martinez Josh Hader Patrick Sandoval Tony Kemp Josh Rojas Ramon Laureano Teoscar Hernandez Enrique Hernandez Mike Foltynewicz Jake Rodgers Cionel Perez Vince Velasquez Myles Straw These are the young players, rookies or minor leaguers that I can remember trading that went on to of be of any note in the big leagues. This list is 10 years - back to 2013 of Astros moves. I obviously did not include straight busts the Astros traded - and in some cases, the Astros still “won” the trades involving these guys… for example Cole cost the Astros Musgrove, but it was still a massive win for the Astros. Looking at the list - it really isn’t that impressive. The biggest loses are Josh Hader, who the Astros had gotten from Baltimore in another trade. Luhnow has said he didn’t want to trade Hader but he viewed him as a reliever (although a good one) and calculated the risk was limited. As it turned out- Hader has been a reliever, but arguably the best in baseball over the last 6 seasons. The Astros obviously could have used him. The second major loss was JD Martinez, who was released. The Astros tried to trade him without success. It turned out that he would be one of the better sluggers in the AL over the last 8-9 years. He is defensively limited, but can rake. The rest of the players really haven’t haunted the Astros. For a few years Laureano looked good, but overall has been middling. Sandoval would be a nice #4-5 starter for the Astros, but they have 4-5 guys similar. The Astros have traded a lot of high level prospects that never panned out - including a player very similar to Gilbert, but even a better prospect - Brett Phillips. There is a good chance one of Clifford or Gilbert are a near all star for awhile. I don’t think either will be a true star. Clifford is positionally limited and the contact tool is a real concern. Gilbert is fine defensively in center, and he makes adequate contact with a fast bat - but he isn’t going to hit a lot of homers or steal a lot of bases. He is a lot like Adam Eaton. So while it would have been nice to keep one of them - neither one of them are really top of a teams prospect list. They are in the 5-10 range really. FWIW the Astros were able to keep their higher upside prospects. Now most of them are in A+ or lower, so there is more risk but the Astros still protected them.
No it doesn’t - the Astros were not comfortable giving Verlander a 3 year 115 million dollar contract this winter. That is why the Astros did not resign Verlander. However, the Astros are comfortable paying Verlander 36 million over 3 seasons. This isn’t hard to figure out. The Astros have still added to the payroll adding Verlander. It has nothing to do with giving Tucker north of 200 million like he did wants. The Astros will try to work out a deal with Bregman and Framber. Of the 3 - the Astros have a solid chance to keep two of them - but it isn’t going to be because of the Mets money - most likely additional flexibility will be to add free agents as needed the next 2 seasons.
Astros could have used Sandoval at several points the last few years. He has become a solid mid rotation pitcher on an average team. Did we get equal value? I guess it depends on who you ask, some in the Astros front office, coaching staff and clubhouse would say the Astros won the trade…. but even if the Astros lost the deal, it didn’t real impact their bottom line so far.
Perhaps… but even JV acknowledges that his career had a total rebirth after he came here and the Astros tweaked some of his pitch sequencing and usage and he went from good but aging… to dominant again. In 2017, there were a lot of concerns about how much JV had left. He put that to bed very quickly… and went on to have 2 more years of dominance before the injury, and wins the cy young before and after the injury. Yes, he’s older… and we all know guys will eventually fall off… but guys like him, Nolan, Clemens…. Are all special god-given arms that have all excelled even when they reached their 40’s. Clemens won’t likely get into the HOF and its questionable where is “best” years were (should be Boston, but NY will try to claim them). Nolan should have gone in as an Astro. What JV does the next 2-3 years will certainly keep this question open for interpretation…. That will give him parts of 8 years with the Astros with at least multiple championships, multiple CYA’s, and a chance to get to 300 in this uniform.
I hear some version of this a lot - but I would just point out that this same farm system in the last year has given the Astros two rookie starting pitchers doing very well (Brown/France), a trade for the reigning Cy Young winner (Verlander), a likely long term starting catcher (Diaz), a competent outfield bench bat (Julks) and a veteran high leverage reliever in trade (Graveman). Tell me how many teams can say their system did that in the last 12 months.
He is ok there and can probably play there for awhile (4-5 years) and be okay, but he is a gold glove type corner outfielder.
I would agree - but look at his number with Houston. It’s a Randy Johnson type scenario - the utter dominance in Houston… two Cy Young’s and a second place finish in the Cy Young, and two Titles.
300 wins easily puts him in an Astros hat in the HoF, especially given that if he reaches that number, he's likely the last to ever do it. Randy Johnson, the last pitcher to get win #300, entered age 41 with 246 wins and ended his career at 45 with 303. JV right now sits at 250. Even after Tommy John, it's not impossible for Justin. Kershaw also might have an outside chance, he's 35 and just won his 200th game, he actually started his age 35 season ahead of JV, 197 wins vs 188. But Clayton's struggled with health the last few years and his declining velo may come back to bite him, given his far inferior wiggle room compared to Verlander. Still would be really nice to see him reach 300 as well though.
I remember complaining after he was drafted that we had drafted a left fielder in the first round. He has looked so good since then that I came to terms with not getting an up the middle player in the first round. Clifford was the obvious best player we got that year and he was looking more like a first baseman every day. I am never wild about spending draft picks on those positions but they really were positions of need coming into this season. I am sorry to see them go but not nearly as devastated as I would be if they had been likely to play in premium positions.
I get the fear of mortgaging the future for now. The Twins always have this debate and because they’re cheap almost always say they want to develop their own talent rather than go trade prospects and spend money to make a big acquisition. The Twins have been bad to mediocre for more than 20 years. Prospects are great but they are prospects. Veterans like JV are proven winners and he’s likely a first ballot hall of famer. With the money working this is a great move.
Our farm is so underrated. It has been ranked near the bottom for a long while, but somehow we turn out ROY candidates every year. Most have been low draft picks and international signings that cost the same as a used Honda. I would argue, our farm is the best. We don't have top tier tool guys anymore but that happens when you are winning 100+ games a year and winning pennants vs losing 100+ games a year. The 4 draft picks we lost didn't help either. That farm system to me is Luhnow's enduring legacy. It's the farm that Luhnow built. They should have statues of him at all our minor league facilities.
