It would be fascinating if there was an easy way to compare pitch usage by pitcher and by catcher (i.e., see how a given pitcher's pitch usage changes depending on whether Maldy or Diaz is catching). From the eye test, I would say Diaz is more aggressive in his pitch calling than Maldy. Like Maldy is more willing to call for a get-me-over fastball in a backwards count in an attempt to avoid a walk while Diaz would prefer risking the walk to avoid having something get squared up.
Thanks! I held off saying Diaz seems to call a lot more secondary stuff, because I wasn't sure if I was being biased.
I think Crane hired Dana Brown to be his puppet. He lets Brown build up the farm system via draft while he calls the shots when it comes to signings and trades. He wanted a lackey he can control which Click wasn't willing to be.
Crane always had a say in big money decisions, even with Luhnow. This was largely about money and no GM is going to have the final say on those decisions. And what we laud Luhnow for the most was his draft/development system… he started getting better at trades from 2017 and beyond, but again not necessarily without Crane’s approval. Crane also was the driving influence for JV, Altuve, Bregman, Yordan extensions.
maybe Maldy isn’t afraid to call a get me over pitch because he is a **** hitter and can’t imagine someone doing damage, whereas Diaz knows he would hit a middle middle cookie out of the park
Astros had to make a move from the 40 man roster to add Verlander. I'm shocked it was Joe Perez. I would have bet money on Enoli Paredes I wonder if they have some hope for him?
you think it’s a near certainty that Bregman and Tucker are gone? I understand the sentiment with Crane’s prior stances on long term deals..that just sucks to think about. I figured we’d lose Framber with how much pitching depth we have, but I was hoping to resign Tucker/Bregman…I wonder if either are willing to work with HOU on deals that make sense for everyone
It is clear Crane has an EXTREMELY strong aversion to contracts longer than 5 years. So knowing that Bregman and Tucker (and very likely Framber) are looking at 6+ years (with Tucker and Framber probably looking at $200M+), and it’s easy to conclude they’re gone when the time comes. But further, you can look at the projected outlays for current commitments and expected arbitration raises, and the money just won’t be there unless Crane decides totally reverse course and go well over the CBT threshold.
Gotcha. My hope is between the industry standards shifting, and hiring of Dana Brown, that Crane would reconsider long contracts, as I assume they will be necessary to compete in the future, or at least necessary to compete with the market’s top dogs for premier talent. Hell, even Seattle gave Rodriguez a 10 or so year deal. My hypothesis is the market may put Crane in a position where he will have to make those long offers to remain competitive even if he has understandable aversions to them. I guess we’ll see. I would just hate to see the Stros relegated to mediocrity after this window because Crane won’t sign players 6+ years.
Not sure Bregman will get a super long term deal on the open market. And the only other player who was in position to be extended long term, at this age, was Correa… and Crane had pretty good reasons/knowledge as to why he didn’t’ want to go long on him. Old narrative was he didn’t give out more than 3 year deals… till Altuve got his extension, LMJ got a 5 year deal. Was willing to sign JV for 2/86 last off-season, after committing $60 million in dead money. I could actually see them re-extending Yordan well before this deal is up to lock him in further, as they’re projected to get a major windfall in this investment. As long as the championship window is open, I expect Crane to fill in voids or retain as much to keep it open.
The money is there for tucker or Framber I think (agree they won’t do it) with JV being on a 2.5/39M deal deal now. Bregman leaving takes 30M off the table, I think Altuve might end up at less than his 27M in the next go round. If you wanted to give Tucker 10/300 this off-season you could. 2024 numbers (salary cap purposes) Catcher- 3M (assuming cheap back up) Abreu- 19 Altuve- 25 Peña- 1 Bregman- 20 Kessinger-1 Dubon- 4 Yordan-17 LF-5 (platoon LHH) Chas-5 Jake-1 Julks-1 Tucker-30 Total- 142 everyday JV-13 Framber-13 LMJ-15 Javier- 12 Urquidy-4 Gardia- 3 France-1 Rotation- 50 pen- Presley-14 Abreu-3 Graveman-8 Pre-arb guys and left over starters- 5 Bullpen- 30 222 million more or less with my projected arbitration and spending stuff. Tax line is what- 235 next year? So yeah- there’s the add on tax for benefits and 40 man roster spots but that’s would be under 250 total. So, 1 year- slightly in the tax, Bregman walks and Altuve gets extended for his current years and you are back below the tax in 2025. I know we won’t do this, but we could.
Your numbers are off. You’re not getting a quality backup free agent C for $3M or a quality platoon LF FA for $6M. The Astros share of JV in 2024 is $17M not $13M. A lot of your arb estimates are low. LMJ tax hit is higher than 15. You forgot Montero’s bad contract. If Bregman wants to play it safe or has a down year next year maybe they can re-sign both him and Altuve. The money just isn’t there for Tucker unless they move a lot of pieces around.
Next season’s projected opening day roster looks pretty flush: Star position players (4): Altuve, Bregman, Tucker, Yordan Borderline star position players (4): Diaz, Abreu, Pena, McCormick Solid regulars or above average bench players (2): Dubon, Meyers Bench pieces with upside (3): Salazar, Kessinger, Julks Star pitchers (2): Framber, JV Borderline star pitchers (6): Javier, Brown, France, Pressly, Abreu, Garcia Solid BoR SP or RP (2): Graveman, Urquidy Question marks (3): McCullers, Montero, 13th pitcher Bielak and Whitley will take Garcia and McCullers spot since they are out of options. Houston’s offseason shopping list would be 1 RP and a backup C, but that’s only if they don’t like Salazar and don’t want to leave a spot open on the pitching staff for competition between young arms on the 40 man.
If they did the Tucker deal they’d trade for the platoon guy and the back up Catcher with club control. The point is that it’s not like it would be some massive tax bill, and it would last like 1 year before Bregman walked. Like I said- we aren’t resigning Tucker and we never were. But that’s philosophical not because this deal dooms us or turns us into paupers. I did forget monteros bad contract. Had to flush it out of my mind. If you wanted to do the Tucker deal without hurting the major league team I guess the play would be to trade LMJ and Montero to someone and attach prospects to get them to the point they’d say yes. We basically sold Clifford and Gilbert for 54M to the Mets, we’d probably be considered about 45M upside down on those two. I wonder how painful that would be to move? You wouldn’t need as many OF anymore with Tucker re-signed long term. Maybe Jake. It’s all just mental masterbation. Like I said we were never extending Tucker.
Episode 18 of our podcast recapping the JV deal. Thanks to all that listen. We are having fun doing it- hope y’all are having fun listening. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/28YfTevbV7v3gXhYFp7qY5?si=MDTK4i1ZS2Sja89hZb-jeg Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podca...n-astros-podcast/id1683955456?i=1000623127193 Amazon: https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/8...-thoughts?ref=dm_sh_AHsuQ8ofSoCkuakptVvec3lLs
I know part of being a fan is to predict things about the future... but c'mon guys. Can you at least enjoy this stretch run of the season with the injured guys coming back, JV coming back, Framber being elite, Javier hopefully getting his mojo back... before you go and worry about the CBT and how non-competitive they'll possibly be in 2026? Also, just for reference sake, nobody had a lot of the current contributors on the radar going into 2020. Likewise looking the roster turnover from 2017-2020. 3 years is an eternity in baseball... and the Astros happen to have JV/Tucker/Yordan/Framber for at least that long (including this year), with Altuve/Bregman at 2 with possible extensions pending. Yes, try your best to keep the core together... but try also not to fret at everything else. Things change and adjustments need to be made. Going into this season, starting pitching looked to be overflowing... then it wasn't... now it may be again going into next year with LMJ/Garcia coming back. Every year they sign their draft class, there will be new top 10 ranked prospects. While Gilbert/Clifford would likely contribute at some point... it wasn't a given and they weren't touted as "can't miss". If Brice Matthews busts out, he immediately ascends to the top of the list... and becomes everybody's favorite prospect just like that. While the farm was thin with the missed draft picks from the scandal, it can only get better from here on out. And at some point, this run will end... whether its due to age, injury, luck, or just getting beat by the better teams. But as of right now, the Astros are likely the best team on paper in all of baseball. No real holes. No real weaknesses.
Meh. We’ll talk about the Astros stuff we want to talk about. Nobody should be butthurt that there’s discussion about the future. I am excited about 2023 but I also totally disagree that the window has to close or that it’s an inevitability that Houston will have to rebuild in the next decade. It’s fun for me to look forward and try to figure out what Houston can/should do to keep winning 3-5 years from now.
We are probably the plurality favorite to win the AL the next 3 years and you’d call it more likely than not that we win a WS in the next 3 years. That’s awesome. We have to develop really well over the next 3 years and if we do that the run continues. If we don’t do that and the window closes we have 5 or so excellent trade pieces to start a rebuild after we competed for 10 years for WS titles. That’s an awesome and amazing run and I’m grateful for that every day as an Astros fan. Some people have fun thinking through all the organizational implications that come with roster building and management alongside watching the games. What’s wrong with that?
