So, the Mets are essentially paying $35 mil+ for a 21 year old that hasn't even seen the majors yet? Interesting. Makes me wonder if the Rangers paying $22.5 mill is meant to go towards the luxury tax threshold only and are still on the hook for Scherzer's full 2024 salary
Crane's issue was paying 3 years, right - he was willing to pay 2 years at his current salary? Seems like trading for him now would get 3 playoff runs at just a little over 2 years' worth of salary, which is almost more appealing than just 2 years, I would think? Unless the issue is specifically 2025 rather than 3 years total?
What isn’t happening… crane eating JVs contract as is (or most of it), or the deal isn’t happening (even if Mets eat a decent amount of the contract to get a prospect to their liking?
Stuff like this makes the Montero (and maybe Abreu?) signing look really bad if a top 5 prospect in system gets dumped for his salary in a JV trade.
Mets have unlimited money. They can afford to just buy prospects. If they wanted to, they could keep signing the Scherzers and JV's of the world and trade them every year to get prospects they otherwise never could get access to.
The former, for all the talk about going into the tax for the right pieces, the only time the Crane broke the bank was 2019, even today the Astros are only 10th in salary.
And last year people were saying Cole was done after the rule changes about sticky stuff because his spin rate was down. HoF pitchers tend to have ways to figure things out, especially when they get injected to new playoff environments. Scherzer was dramatically better a few years ago when he went to the Dodgers. Randy Johnson was having a horrible season when he got traded to the Astros in 1998. The Rangers are betting on the idea that they can get Scherzer back to being great. If so, they get 1.5 years of a superstar pitcher for $22MM. At the cost of one prospect who may or may not be any good sometime down the road. Worst case, they add a #3 type SP to a rotation that's been a mess recently. From what I can tell, Acuna is a top 100 prospect but not in the top 50. That means, on average, every MLB team should have about 2 prospects rated higher than him. This is not like trading Ronald Acuna when he was the #1 prospect in baseball. If the Astros had made this same trade, everyone here would be thrilled.
Last thing I'd like to mention about JV before the Dodgers empty half the farm to the Mets for Cohen to eat the entire contract, through 14 starts, he's been two different pitchers, first 7 starts, 4.85 ERA with a 4.92 FIP, sub 9 K/9, and 3 BB/9. The next 8, 1.98 ERA with 3.15 FIP albiet with pretty similar K/9 and BB/9 numbers. The Savant page points to a big decline as well, though I can't break it down for parts of the season.
"Scouts following the Mets in recent weeks strongly believed that Scherzer’s stuff had declined more than Verlander’s, though one did not have to be a scout to observe that. Scherzer’s value to the Rangers is questionable, but Verlander seems able to help a team like the one he recently left, the Houston Astros (yes, they are interested)." https://sports.yahoo.com/now-happen-mets-justin-verlander-030255796.html
crane needs to dig deep — into his pockets — and spend more. The Astros will fight neck and neck with the Rangers for the West and the WC will have a lot of contenders until the last week. The last few years the Astros have had a comfortable lead going into the second half , but if they want their best shot at making the post-season that means keeping up with the Rangers’ moves. Crane should just agree to eat more of Verlander’s salary because we can’t beat the Dodgers in prospects. The window is still open obviously to win another WS and teams are desperate to dethrone the Astros. No pussyfooting around crane. The time to win is now
That won't work. Steve Cohen doesn't care about saving money. The Scherzer trade proved that. He will pay as much of JVs contract as he has to in order to get the best prospect(s) Offering lesser prospect(s) and taking more of the salary back means nothing to him.
I thought Crane said he’d go into the luxury tax if it meant having a shot at the WS again ? I mean the window is clearly wide open this year but the Astros aren’t running away with it - feels like we have to make some moves to match the Rangers. Who else that is available makes this team better than Verlander ? I’d go all in and agree to pay most of that salary - I just don’t feel as good about our rotation as in years past
Our real hope of landing JV is because of the NTC. I have a feeling this will come down to last minute on Tuesday trade deadline if JV coming back to Astros.
Comparing it to acquiring a 34 year old Randy Johnson who wasn't showing durability issues doesn't seem to make much sense. Randy's FIP wasn't nearly as high as his ERA either. He wasn't showing decreased velo and he his slider wasn't starting to fail him. Max's FIP is nearly 5. Randy was also throwing nearly 7 ip a game before coming to Houston. I don't get bringing up a 31 year old Cole with no velo/durability issues to a 39 year old Max either. Maybe Max stabilizes but he's looking like he's running out of gas and his contract is unfavorable. But I agree the talent the Rangers gave up doesn't seem to be excessive. For me the worst case is they get a pitcher that is on the DL or dealing with nagging injuries going into the post season.
