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Chapter 6: Green & Redemption

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Mathloom, Apr 5, 2023.

  1. MystikArkitect

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    I think most of the posters in here who are pro-KPj are more pro-Mobley/anti-Jalen. At least that's what I can surmise and what I feel like it all goes back to. I think in their world there is this alternate universe where KPj is doing all of the things Jalen Green is doing and Mobley is also here and then I guess that's our foundation. Even though KPj might not even be a good bench player and Mobley is a horrific offensive player. He's going to probably be behind Amen Thompson as far as ball handling duties are concerned if I had to guess and I'm not sure how he's going to react to being relegated to defense and spot up shooting duty. If he can do these things then I think he'll be worth his contract but there's also the whole temper thing.
     
  2. apollo33

    apollo33 Member

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    Which is odd because KPJ has been basically as much of an disappointment as Green.

    I remember KPJ was the shiniest new thing when we got him from the G League. I even bought into the hype the kid could be an all star one day. But it turns out he just ain't all that good.

    We had had 2 years of Green now, if he doesn't improve I'm moving on with our newest shiny thing Amen
     
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  3. xaos

    xaos Member

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    I feel very strongly that Rockets have one of the brightest young cores in the entire NBA, but gradually we will shift from comparing ourselves to the young teams in the league to the playoff teams and the contending teams where caveats don't really matter anymore. Will Stone be able to increase on the margins when that time comes (clock is ticking). Personally I think he's done what I've wanted him to at a high level but despite the complexity in his contract dealings or trades he seems to have missed on small details often. Those small details are overshadowed by the direction and macro, but now is when the small details matter more. He makes me a little nervous.
     
  4. xaos

    xaos Member

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    As funny as that sounds, that is part of the strategy of having a multi-year tank. More swings. If we miss on all that would be impressively bad (which I seriously don't believe there aren't at least 2 all stars in the group)
     
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  5. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    Green has not been a disappointment unless you expected 19 year old Luka or LeBron type impact which is incredibly rare. Green's impact is the same as guys like Booker and Ant in their first two years.

    How that is disappointing? I don't know. Maybe you had a higher view of Green when drafted than I did.
     
  6. apollo33

    apollo33 Member

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    I agree, I just think people get overly attached to high draft picks. In my opinion if players typically stand out by their Second, third is also kinda late.

    We have Sengun, Jalen, Jabari and Amen, we need two all stars out of the 4. I think Sengun has shown the most promise in terms of consistent on court performances and basketball IQ.
     
  7. apollo33

    apollo33 Member

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    His second season is disappointing because he actually regressed from his efficiency and defense from the second part of his rookie season.

    Don't even look at Lebron, look at Giddey, Wagner, they both carved out consistent roles in their second season and made major improvements. Green got better at drawing fouls, but he looked worse than he did shooting and defense compared to post all star 2022
     
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  8. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    Good that a few of us noticed.

    He did not have a role beforehand other than to be the scorer who can have the most minutes and shooting attempts.

    And he is definitely trending to the flashy part of the game and a little less to the fundamentally sound part.
     
  9. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    Giddey's impact on his team:
    https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/4869/onoff#tab-team_efficiency


    Green's

    https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/4865/onoff#tab-team_efficiency

    As we can see Green added 1.5 wins and Giddey added -20 wins. He was in the 13th percentile in team on/off scoring efficiency while Green was in the 86th percentile.

    Giddey has a worse scoring efficiency while not being the center of attention also.


    Also here is something that you need to sit down for because it might be hard to believe. Giddey is known for what? His pg playamking skills?

    What is the most important possession type that a pg runs that displays pg traits the most? PnR primary ball handler? I would say so. It's the possession type that most displays pg skills.

    Lets compare their efficiency on being the primary pnr ball handler. If the possession amounts are low like 2 possessions per game than it's irrelevant. But let's check.

    Josh Giddey:
    5.4 possessions per game
    .82 ppp
    16% turnover rate.

    Jalen Green:
    9.9 possessions per game
    .87 ppp
    13% turnover rate.

    So the pg savant is quite literally the more turnover prone less efficient pnr ball handler than the chucking off guard and the chucking off guard has nearly twice as many possessions of that play type per game which makes it much harder to maintain a higher efficiency.


    So the combo of Giddey absolutely tanking his team's efficiency when he's on the court and him being literally worse at the most important type of play a pg runs than Green tells me two things.


    Giddey is propped up by a better team.

    Giddey is more of a connecting playmaker, not a point of attack playmaker.


    And let's address Green dropping 1% in ts% from his rookie year to sophmore year.

    I don't think dropping a whooping 1% in ts% when he upped his usage by 7%, upped his ppg by 5 l, upped his self creation rate by 10% with an increase in defensive attention and with a worse roster from year one to two(replacing a competent efficient Wood with a 19 year old rookie for example) is him not improving.

    He improved given the context.

    Ask any Suns fan, Booker improved from year one to year two tremendously even though lo and behold... He dropped both his efg% and ts% also. Why is that?

    I mean look at the cleaning the glass link for Green. He literally went from being a player that hurt his team when he was on the court to a player that improved his team when he's on the court.
     
    #529 fchowd0311, Jul 28, 2023
    Last edited: Jul 28, 2023
  10. MystikArkitect

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    This is the underlying issue with Jalen and what I think everyone will be razor focused on. Does he want to win or does he want to end up on TikTok/Sportscenter/Twitter. Funny thing is that Jabari and Sengun have as much if not more of "those" moments than Jalen or KPj do and they don't even seek them out. It just happens organically like Jabari's 2 game winners at this point and his game tying 3 against the Pacers last year. Sengun has the most iconic poster of this current Rockets generation on top of a million other highlight reel passes.
     
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  11. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    Man talk about gutter level analysis of basketball. Evaluations based on singular game winners.


    Jabari has one game winner lol. And it was a result of the opposing team literally doing everything in their power to prevent Green from having the ball.

    Green has more overall buzzer beaters and more impressive ones like here at 2:02:



    I mean this shot by itself:



    Is more impressive than any late game stuff Jabari has made given the combo of moves on the level of player he did it on.


    Or we can just more objective ways to determine who's more clutch:


    But ya discussing impact on winning with one game winner(Green btw had the go ahead 3 right before to tie it).

    Jabari has shown 5% of Green's ability to take over games.
     
  12. Rocketeer

    Rocketeer Member

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    LOL man ppl here really have the nerve to say Jalen isn't skilled. Like, WTF are they watching? Is his athleticism so elite it overshadows everything else they're watching? Are they only watching highlights? I mean damn, look at the ease at how he blows by Tatum, the crossovers, stepbacks, midrange, jeeez.
     
  13. Dobbizzle

    Dobbizzle Member

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    I think we can safely say that the Green haters are just making up narratives in their head and then convincing themselves they're fact. Which player from the last 2 drafts showed more as a scorer than Green? Literally nobody.
     
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  14. Yinka Dare

    Yinka Dare Member

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    He's sometimes out of control when he attacks the basket but ither than that, what does he does that it seems like he's just playing for highlights? Guy created for himself in a trash offense and shot jumpers mostly. That's not sportscenter chasing basketball.
     
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  15. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    Ya. He's out of control as much as any other young hyper talented young guard on a horrible team.

    Dude averages less than 3 turnovers per with 10 pnr ball handling possessions per game which is as high as ball dominant heliocentric playmakers like Halliburton or Lamelo and those type possession requires the most ball handling control and are the most turnover prone plays for ball handlers.

    So ya. Dude has surprising ball security for the amount people say he's out of control.
     
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  16. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    I didn't realize this and I don't know how this isn't made into a gif and shared more here but at 1:42 Green literally makes Jaylen Brown reach and fall on his ass off a crossover lol
     
  17. MystikArkitect

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    Jabari hit a game winner against NOLA, the game winner in SL and a game tying 3 to send the game to OT against the Pacers you nimrod. Do you need me to dig them up for you or are you capable of typing it into the YT search bar?
     
  18. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    So one game winner. And was given that opportunity because they were preventing Green from receiving the ball in the inbounds play.
     
  19. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist

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    See this just an artificial line in the sand. All but 1% of the star players are extremely interested in being big in media and being mentioned in sports news. The greatest player of all time agreed to get fined for wearing fashionable shoes and jewelry on the court - before he ever won a title. His teammate was Dennis Rodman, another winner who loved fame and fashion.

    He can and will do both. The media loves him. He should not be getting this much attention given his artificially depressed stats from uber-tanking for two years. He keeps getting invited to all star games and events and now team USA. He's a good looking multi cultural kid who is a trend setter. He understands the CURRENT fashion industry and its trends.

    Like he told Udoka, he'll do whatever it takes to win. Looks like he's working hard in the summer. Participating in team USA camp. Putting on muscle. Practicing with teammates and superstars. He's the highest scoring player of the past 2 drafts. Even if inefficient, a person would have to be stupid to not see imminent potential in a guy like that who gets to the line a lot, is an incredible athlete and just 21 years old. Never ever been seriously coached before.

    You're forgetting Udoka took this job knowing our FA options. He looked at the film on this team, several times raved about what he saw and instructed the team to reject Harden and bring in a PG, SF, PF and C. All of them complementary role players. We also dumped a SG. Soon after Udoka was hired the rockets put out a press release saying they want to elevate his role and responsibilities/accountability. He's already a 22ppg scorer at 21 years old - so what's an elevated role? You can clearly see Udoka senses big time scorer potential in him. This team has no chance offensively if Green doesn't step up, none of the other scorers can occupy a top scorer role. Sengun could beat top playmaker, but not a 25+ ppg delivered type.

    I think you're just not realizing that if a GM forces losses, then it will show up in individual stats. That's how losses relate to individual stats - there's a general correlation. That means the players were trying their hardest yet the roster forced them to miss more shots and have to deal with a lot more defensive breakdowns. The individual stats will go down if you execute the most brutal tank job in NBA history. It's a miracle we won 22 games with no rim protector and no PG anywhere on the roster lol. Oh and KJ/Gordon guarding the best wings in the NBA.

    That's why there's general optimism about Jalen, he has done just as well as his comps at the same age despite being in a far worse situation than any of them.
     
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  20. MystikArkitect

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    I'm not anti-Jalen at all. I'm also not thinking he's the savior either. I have him firmly behind Jabari and Amen on my "Rockets tier list" right now based on what I've seen and his off seasons so far. Maybe this is the year he takes a step forward. I'm incredibly low on the low defense high scoring archetype so if he can average 25/4/4 on high efficiency with good defense, he's a winning player and well worth the max. If he continues to be aloof on defense and constantly taking bad shots then he isn't. I really like how much he's been dedicated this off season to honing his craft. Working with FVV and his trainer. But the game is won and lost on the defensive end and history has shown that if you aren't a top 10 defensive team in the league, you're probably not winning.

    These same concerns apply to Sengun as well who also has a taste for the finer things in life and has defensive concerns. Of the 6 prospects, the 2021 class is the most questionable defensively. You're not wrong though. He's the best offensive player we have and the most apt at drawing fouls which is a huge part of the game. Such a big season coming up for so many people in this organization.
     
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