I’d do that deal because I trust the astros to produce a JP France or better guy every year. Which is really valuable as an organization. Most teams can’t do that. But going back to not very heralded guys (so LMJ doesn’t count for example) we’ve produced Framber, Javier, Brown, Garcia, Urquidy, France in the last 5 years. None of them was a big bonus guy. None was a high draft pick. That’s just a cy young type, an all star type, 2 guys that were ROY types and then 2 guys that look like rock solid MoR guys. You produce one of those every year and an ace every 5th year and your pitching is locked down for good at reasonable money and you are a perennial playoff team. It’s amazing.
I see trade ideas with Pena. I will be the first to say I'm not sold on Pena long term. He caught fire towards the end of the year and post season. With that being said, I don't have data to back it up, but I don't trust Dubon's arm from an eye test. His throws are low with him playing at second base. I can't imagine how he will fair playing SS. If Altuve is healthy, I think they can get by but there needs to be some depth if Altuve goes down again. I don't know they have that today.
There is no doubt that Pena is the best defensive SS in this organization. Anyone replacing him will be a slight downgrade. I just feel that he is one of the few assets this team has that can bring back all-star level players and this team has a significant lack of playoff level pitching and bench depth. I also see him as about as valuable as he will ever be now. I expect him to be a gold glove SS with a below average bat good for 3-4 WAR each of the next 4 years. Certainly valuable and good but not irreplaceable or untouchable.
Dubon has been roughly equivalent to Pena as a SS over his career in terms of fielding % and UZR/150. I don’t think anyone should expect Dubon to be a star but he is adequate as a 8 or 9 hole hitter playing SS if the 1-7 are excellent hitters. I am also pretty encouraged by Kessinger and think it’s possible he could be an everyday caliber SS.
So when we have a replacement considering trading him might be a good idea. Till then it is a stupid one.
Bassit is the only Toronto SP I would talk about. That's just me. As far as Pena for Cease we need TA back in that deal
We can agree to disagree. IMO if Pena could be traded to bring in Cease and Giolito it would be a huge net positive. Cease and Giolito replace France and Bielak in the rotation Dubon/Kessinger replace Pena at SS The improvement is much bigger than the loss overall. And by adding 2 quality arms, it drastically improves the chances if winning a World Series. Over the course of 11-22 playoff games how much do the Astros lose playing Dubon/Kessinger instead of Pena?
TA has been awful this year, and has always been bad defensively. no thanks, let's stick with the in house options
Astros get: SP Justin Verlander (gets option guaranteed) IF/OF Jeff McNeil RP Brooks Raley RP David Robertson $30M Mets get: OF Drew Gilbert SP JP France SP Jose Urquidy RHP Spencer Arrighetti RHP Forrest Whitley RHP Enoli Paredes Playoff roster: 2B Altuve LF McNeil 3B Bregman DH Alvarez 1B Abreu RF Tucker CF McCormick C Diaz SS Pena Bench: Maldonado, Dubon, Meyers, Julks/Brantley Rotation: Framber, JV, Brown, Javier BP: Pressly, Robertson, Raley, Abreu, Neris, Maton, Stanek/Montero, Bielak
Dubon is a solid versatile bench player, nothing more, or less. Kessinger has no business on a playoff roster at all.
We seem to be giving up a lot. 2 starters and our top position and pitching prospect. Not if we have to guarantee Verlander's 40 million third year.
I agree about Dubon and think Kessinger needs more opportunity and show more before he does belong on a playoff roster. But whatever is lost by playing them at SS the next 2 months and playoffs will be significantly recouped and much more by the improvements in pitching, IMO.
Positives He has a very strong and accurate arm in the outfield. Average routes to the ball. He doesn't strikeout much and has a repeatable swing plane. He has good but not great speed in the outfield. He has very good bat speed on the inner part of the plate. Plays very hard and is brash, well liked by teammates. Negatives Thus far lacks consistent power Not a great base stealer. Improving at taking the walk but not great at it. Has weak hands His size Puts his body in harm's way too often. He certainly has the upside to be an all star if he keeps improving as a hitter - but I question whether he will hit for a high enough average or enough power to really put-up big numbers. Couple that with not having a lot of stolen bases and he is possibly limited from being at the top of the order or the middle of the order. Biggest concern I have with him is injuries because of his size and style of play. I have seen players like him in the past break down. Adam Eaton comes to mind as a similar player. Adam Eaton was thinner, but otherwise very similar. Eaton was broken down by 27 years old. Eric Byrnes is another one. To be clear, I think he has value - he will do a number of things above average, and that will give him a solid WAR, but I question whether or not he will be a real decision maker on a ball club in the big leagues. I think it is possible - but I see red flags that a lot of people don't seem to see - and maybe I am wrong. I wouldn't just trade him, I would let me battle for an OF spot in 2024, but if I can get a piece that is very good and under long term control for him, I would do it problably.
Cohen's stated objective is to improve the farm system while also competing next year. He has stated he will pay as much of the outgoing contracts to make sure he gets as high level prospects as possible coming back. Gilbert and Whitley possibly Arrighetti have the ceilings that the Mets will be looking for. France is ok just to keep the overall bust chances down. From what I have heard and read the Mets would have no interest in Urquidy or Parades. They will be offered 5-6 top 10 organizational prospects for that haul. No way the Astros compete by offering Whitley and Paredes.
