Have to wonder how much Chaz's ascension the past month will play into the deadline. Even his expected numbers have moved into top flight territory. If one believes Chaz can be an 800+ OPS guy, that's an elite OF for the next 2 seasons. I still don't think I would trade Gilbert for a lone reliever, but it certainly makes our OF prospects much more moveable if you want to swing for the fences in a trade.
Elite relievers are very important in the post season. It isn't as simple as having a closer already. The ability to turn playoff games into 5-6 inning affairs is huge....... having Abreu/Neris/Bednard/Pressly coming into the game after 5-6 innings is an incredible weapon, and why the Astros WS championship team LAST year may be the overall best one the Astros have ever had - even better than 2019. Also, good luck getting elite bullpen arms with team control for low level prospects. It has happened, but it isn't something to count on. Teams also are a lot more progressive about relief pitchers than even a few years ago. Also, I don't know who is talking about giving up the Astros top two prospects for a reliever........ I personally am not even sure they are giving up their top prospect, as I don't think Gilbert is their best prospect.
Because winning is fun. Especially with being in the thick of a playoff/championship race is too exciting to pass up; Verlander got the contract he wanted, and if he can get back to the Astros, he’d get to re-up with the team he’s had the most successful runs with.
The Cease deal keeps coming up and I think it should and hope it comes to fruition. But I feel that there is no chance the White Sox trade him unless they get at least 2 likely members of their 2024 rotation in the deal. They are losing 3 SP to FA, and trading Cease will take away another one. Quality SP is expensive in FA and they have not been known to give expensive deals. I go back to my previous post about the depth of #4-#5 starters in the Astros system. I would trade L.Garcia, France, Whitley, and K.Lee. It almost 100% fills 2 rotation spots which are likely #3 and #4 with very high floor young controllable starters, gives you a very high ceiling lottery ticket SP who could be as good as Cease but just as likely never makes it, and finally a MLB ready C who will likely be a positive WAR but not star player. Floor- league average-ish #3 and #4 SP and solid backup catcher. Ceiling- 3 above average SP for 3+ seasons and a starting catcher.
The fact that McCormick can stick in Centerfield is huge. It allows the Astros more options to fill in around him, and it also means that an OPS of .800 is quite good. Chas isn't as good as he has overall been this season....he isn't a .925 OPS offensive player - but his CAREER OPS is now up to .788 ..... I think in his prime he can be a .780-.820 type player with good defense, health and timely hitting........... Astros have him under control for 3.5 more years.
My dream for 2024: Sign Chas ( 5yr / $60M) and Tucker ( 10yr / $270M) to extensions and park them in left and right field. Trade Meyers and Julks for whatever needs the team feels it has. Open competition for CF in spring between: Gilbert, Leon, Dirden, Corona, Barber, and whoever else may be possibly MLB ready and weren't traded or lost in rule 5 draft.
As much as I would hate to lose Gilbert I would do it. You would trade Hader for Pressly KNOWING he's a rental and having Pressly signed for next yr and a mutual option for '25??? Thank God you are NOT the GM.
Dusty just needs to play him more. I’m still shocked that McCormick has only about 200 at bats for the season, and Julks a Ho-hum prospect has about 50 more AB’s than McCormick. I remember hearing than Click traded Straw so Dusty would be forced to play McCormick. Of course that trade yielded Yainer Diaz, so maybe that just fan speculation/rumors.
An mid 800 OPS guy in centerfield is George Springer. That's better than just good. Not saying he's as good as George. Just saying that is is George's career OPS and made the all star team in season with a lower OPS.
This is an interesting last paragraph- what do you think Gilbert's floor is? What do you think his ceiling is? I see a floor of Jake Meyers with a better arm- a guy that will be a 2.5 or 3 WAR player if he plays full time in CF. I see his ceiling as an all star, if he keeps hitting the ball hard but elevates. He has very little risk to me and while I would be shocked if he ever won an MVP or something like that, I wouldn't be shocked if he played in 3 or 5 all star games. That's pretty damn valuable to me when it comes cheap- but maybe I'm dreaming too much on him.
I thought Click traded Straw so he could bring up Jake from Sugar Land. Jake was raking in SL that year.
That is a really strong group there. It does not have national media draw, but those guys have proven they aren’t scared of the moment. McCormick has really separated himself from his peers. I thought Jake Myers was going to make huge strides, but it’s McCormick whose putting himself into a budding near all-star caliber player. Jake Myers is a premier 4th OF in at least 1/3 of MLB teams. Maybe as he gets more comfortable, he will seize CF for a true battle.
Well said Nook. The depth of the pen is THE main reason we won the WS last yr. The difference this yr is we don't have the starting pitching that is consistently able to get us into the 6th inning and it's wearing the pen down and going at this rate who knows what kind of shape the pen will be in come the playoffs. Then throw in that Maton + Stanek + Montero can't be trusted in high leverage situations. In my opinion the pen needs two more reliable arms. Having Neris/Abreu/Bednar (or someone like Graveman)/Pressly shortens the game to 5-6 innings (as you mentioned). In the playoffs there's days off between the games but the more depth the better.
I think you are right about France probably being a #4 type starter, but I don't think you can call that a floor. He could be John Halama- a guy we traded and then had a 4 WAR season and then nothing after that. There is definitely more than a whiff of smoke and mirrors with him. I'd bet on him being an effective #4 but I wouldn't call that his floor. I would call that Garcia's floor.
You run out a rotation of 3's and 4's your ceiling is scraping a wild card spot and the most likely result is running out a mediocre 75-84 win team. The Sox were a stars and scrubs team for a long time, but trading their star for a few avg guys doesn't help them either.
That makes sense. Maybe a high ceiling guy like Pena or Gilbert need to be in any deal for Cease. My point was that at least 2 established or MLB ready SP need to be in the deal or else it's a non-starter for Chicago. Maybe if Pena or Gilbert is the headliner they include Giolito? Pena, L Garcia, France, Whitley, and Lee for Cease and Giolito? They get a starting gold glove SS controllable for years, 2 mid rotation starters, an MKB catcher, and a lottery ticket high ceiling SP Astros get a TOR starter w/ 2+ years of control and a rental TOR starter. Framber, Cease, Giolito, and Javier or Brown in playoff rotation with the other joining the bullpen. Dubon and Kessinger share SS until it can he addressed in the offseason.
