Reinforcements are definitely on the way offensively. I'd feel a lot better if Javier wasn't broken (but right now he is). The only SP I have any confidence in (in the playoffs) is Framber. Brown has been up and down and come Sept/OCT he'll be way over his career high in innings (same with Javier). Urquidy? No idea how he'll look once he comes back. France? Bielak? If they're going to make a deep run in the playoffs and have any chance at repeating, they'll need four reliable SP. Right now they have one and with the rest there's too many questions. Knowing this I'd use the assets they have to try and acquire another reliable starter (someone you'd have confidence trotting out in a playoff game). I'd also do what I could to bring in a dependable arm to the pen (possibly even two).
I like excitement, and acquiring both Cease and Robert would be the most exciting roster move Houston has made since at least the Verlander trade, possibly the most exciting move ever. If they only have to give up one of Pena/Diaz/Brown plus one of their MLB OF, one other pitcher, Gilbert, and another prospect from their upper levels, I would like that deal. Losing whoever the headliner is would hurt but Cease and Robert have as high of a ceiling at their position as there is.
I like excitement, and acquiring both Cease and Robert would be the most exciting roster move Houston has made since at least the Verlander trade, possibly the most exciting move ever. If they only have to give up one of Pena/Diaz/Brown plus one of their MLB OF, one other pitcher, Gilbert, and another prospect from their upper levels, I would like that deal. Losing whoever the headliner is would hurt but Cease and Robert have as high of a ceiling at their position as there is.
Very nice insight and well thought out. I too think it's unlikely, but with the (hopefully true) report that there "is traction" I am hopeful. Crane wants a splash move and with both Cease and Robert this would be like the JV and Beltran trades together (if Beltran had 4 more years of control). I am a bit more optimistic than you and put the odds at 10-15%. Your point about either Pena, Diaz, or Hunter Brown headlining the deal makes sense. 1) I don't think replacing Brown with Cease makes enough of an impact this year. They are upgrading, not filling a hole or a weakness so I think thats a non-starter unless Lynn is also included which turns a blockbuster even bigger. 2) I don't see them including Diaz in the deal without including Grandal. The Astros need 2 legitimate catchers for the rest of this year. Besides the problems of growing the deal even bigger, I think the Astros have struck gold with Diaz and plan to keep him. 3) That leaves Pena so let's build a deal around him. Without adding to the deal, that leaves Dubon as the starting SS and Kessinger as the backup. Neither can be included in the deal. I'm fine with this to get Robert in the lineup. Still an offensive upgrade and net positive. I still think 2+ likely 2024 rotation pieces must go back to Chicago for them to include Cease. The Astros have few SP (outside of Brown) who have the ability to step into a #1-3 SP right away so it will probably need to be quantity over quality, but all legitimate MLB starters or starting prospects. Garcia is the obvious choice. He is out this year but should be healthy the majority of next, he has pitched in big moments, and has the floor of a #3-4 SP and not reached ceiling yet. SP or SP prospects who can help fill their 2024 rotation need to be players #3 and 4 in this deal. There are: France, Bielak, Blanco, Dubin, Arrighetti, and Whitley to choose from IMO. If we choose the safest and most upside that would be France and Whitley. With an OF of Chas, Robert, and Tucker all under control for 2+ years, they can include Gilbert in the deal which adds great upside and value for Chicago. In order for Chicago to actually pull the trigger on this they must feel they have filled holes for 2024+ and are therefore better overall because they will not be better at CF and #1 SP. I think Brown should add: Korey Lee, who could be their starting catcher next year but almost certainly can be on the 26 man roster and Pedro Leon who can compete with Gilbert for the CF or be a utility #4 OF/2B with power, speed, and a great arm. The fact that he's Cuban means they likely scouted him heavily and knows his tools well. So that makes it: Pena, Garcia, France, Whitley, Gilbert, K.Lee, and Leon. Chicago potentially gets 3 SP, starting SS, starting CF, a catcher, and a #4 OF/2B who could all be on the 2024 active roster. At least 5 of them have all star potential and 2 have already had all star level moments. Chicago fills up to 7 holes on their 2024 active roster.
Pena/Meyers/Gilbert/Arrighetti/Garcia for Cease/Robert McCormick for Bellinger/Stroman Melton/Leon/Bielak for Barlow/Hernandez Playoff Roster: CF Robert LF Bellinger 2B Altuve DH Alvarez 3B Bregman RF Tucker 1B Abreu C Diaz SS Dubon Bench: Maldy, Singleton/Salazar, Kessinger, Julks Rotation: Framber, Cease, Stroman, Brown BP: Pressly, Javier, Barlow, Abreu, Neris, Maton, Hernandez, France, Urquidy Probably one of the greatest rosters of all time. Offseason tasks would be very simple: finding a replacement for Bellinger (or deciding one of Julks/Barber/Corona/Loperfido/Dirden is ready) and signing 1 decent RP. 2024 Roster (with no offseason moves): CF Robert 2B Altuve DH Alvarez 3B Bregman RF Tucker 1B Abreu C Diaz LF Julks SS Dubon Bench: Lee, Kessinger, Barber, Hensley Rotation: Framber, Cease, Brown, Javier, France, Urquidy (w/McCullers on the IL) BP: Pressly, Barlow, Abreu, Hernandez, Montero, Whitley, Blanco
Finally some reality, this proposed trade is very unlikely to happen. Although Stros fans should be very happy if it did happen. You can't go wrong getting an ace and a top 25 player. But these kinds of players cost is going to be prohibitive. Like Garcia, Urquidy, Meyers, Pens, Gilbert, Arrighetti and a young prospect or 2 type prohibitive. I'm talking Baez or Gomez type prohibitive. The Dubon, Julks etc... type trade ideas some are putting on here just aren't going to cut it. A trade like this is really going to hurt. The return is the Stros should be WS contenders for at least the next 3-4 years and that should be more than enough time to rebuild the farm system to be much stronger than it currently is. I really don't think it shortens the window that much. The best talent in the Stros system appears to be in the lower levels. Many of y'all on here are much more well versed on the younger prospects than I am. But making this trade would mean the Stros should be WS contenders for the next 4-5 years. This gives the young guys time to growup and with the added draft picks throughout these years the farm system should still be much stronger than it currently is. The downside is your depending on guys like Kessinger, Madris, Barber the AA pitchers for depth. Brown may have to sign a FA pitcher like Odorizzi and a couple of relievers this off-season to fill out the pitching staff. This is a gamble no doubt, but if you believe in Brown and he's known for his scouting prowess, guys he drafts don't have to spend as much time in the minors as most prospects, then you make this trade for an ace and a top 25 player in MLB. This really comes down to do you believe Brown can rebuild the farm system quickly?
You say this as if the white sox don't have access to this information too. Whitcomb probably has more value if your goal is to have an everday player. If I'm Chicago, here's the minimum... Korey Lee - Grandal is old, past his prime, and they have no catcher in their top 25 prospects. Grandal is a free agent at the end of the year. 18 million in salary saved. Shay Whitcomb - Anderson and Moncada are likely around for one more year in 2024. Burger doesn't hit for average but slugs ok. Whitcomb has sizeable experience at 2B, SS, and 3B giving him flexibility as they decide for 2025 and beyond. He strikes out too much but guys can grow out of that. Montgomery is their top prospect but is probably 2 years away. Whitcomb could play SS and move to 2B when time comes. They also have Ramos for 3B in pipeline. That makes Joe Perez little value to them. Bielak or France - 5 of their top 10 prospects are pitchers. Two of them may be ready for 2024. I could see value in Bielak or France as just an arm until their higher ceiling guys come up. I think they could resign Giolito. If they let Lynn, Clevinger, Grandal, Hendricks, and Joe Kelly walk they save 66 million on top of 10 they pay Giolito already. They could give Giolito 22 million per and still have 50 million to spend on the rotation. Moncada's awful deal falling off in 2025 pays for increases to Robert, Jiminez, and Kopech. Gravemen falls off too. They have decent payroll flexibility... After that, maybe they go for highest upside on some outfielders. You have 2 corners and a DH to stash a hitter... Jiminez is hurt all the time. Sheets has underperformed. I could see room for a bat there so maybe a Barber or Melton have value to them. So something like... Lee Whitcomb France Barber + something else That addresses short term needs for them...
I hope you are right about Alex. As I said he's my favorite player but I'm an Astros fan first. I have gone from: Jose Cruz Bill Doran Jeff Bagwell Lance Berkman Hunter Pence J.D. Martinez (very short) George Springer To Alex Bregman. I will likely have another favorite player sometime in the next 10 years. As for Dubon's arm, baseball savant has it at 40 and Bregmans at 26 so if Alex has the arm forc3rd so does he.
Not for the Astros but he played 12 games there in the minors and 15 games there for the Giants in 2021-2022.
So, you'd go from ridiculously deep OF depth in the system to almost a completely and totally bare OF situation with no ready replacement for Tucker moving on, and not even a decent option for your 3rd OF not to mention a 4th OF. That's putting a lot of pressure on clifford to be ready in 2 years, and it means you need your 1B of the future as Clifford has to stay in the OF. That's a lot of pressure on a 19 year old with good not great pedigree (I think he is a pretty safe bet to be a MLB caliber player). You then have 3 years of control with Robert, 2 with Tucker, 5 with Yordan. You have 2 more years of Cease and Framber, 5 of Javier, Brown and France and 3 with Urquidy, is that right? So, you become the betting line favorites to win in 23 and 24, at which point in time you need to make decisions on Altuve and Bregman (at that time I think you have to bring them back for 25) and in 25 the last year of Framber and Cease you are also probably the betting line favorites if Altvue and Bregman are back, with Tucker in his walk year. Hmmmmmmm, that is all star level players at C, 2b, 3b, CF and RF and DH, along with pretty mid player in LF (Julks), 1B being probably no more than adequate and SS being a pretty decent problem. Starting pitching is great. Bullpen is really good. 3 more swings at a WS and then probably tear down time as Abreu Altvue and Bregman get old, Tucker, Robert, Framber, Abreu the pitcher, Presley and Cease move on. You'd have 2 or 3 years of club control at decent money left for Yordan, Brown, Javier and Clifford hopefully being really good that you could then trade the first 3 for prospects to jump start the rebuild (and should be able to get a very big haul) while shedding all money not tied up with Altuve and Bregman to get the victory lap/Biggio treatement as team Icons that retire (hopefully) with Astros with 3 or 4 rings. Or, if the minor league system develops much better than it's expected to you have plenty of money to spend to fill in the gaps. I think I like it. I might even love it. Unless we don't win a WS then it will be pretty tough to take. I'd give the Astros maybe a 60% chance of winning a WS in the next 3 years if they did all that which is crazy high odds for a WS. Maybe a 20% chance at winning 2.
Maybe it just doesn't show in the outfield. It looks weak to me when they were putting him in center..
2024 OF depth chart in my hypothetical (extremely unlikely) scenario: MLB: Tucker/Robert/Julks/Alvarez/Barber AAA: Loperfido/Corona/Hamilton/Dirden/McKenna AA: Clifford/Daniels/Brewer/Barefoot/Cerny High A: Whitaker/Cole/Fisher/Espinosa/Kato A: Baez/Ochoa/Gomez/Machandy/Perez FCL: Valencia/Huezo/Gonzalez/Gonzalez/Pratt that’s still a stacked OF depth chart. Especially since most likely they’d add a cheap OF in Houston which would bump Barber down to AAA and get rid of McKenna and/or flow down to the rest of the system.
A lot of that is names on a depth chart is all to me- which isn't the same as depth (though there is a definite quality to quantity which I see there. I see guys as likely to be above average OF on that list as Tucker, Robert, Clifford (in 3-5 years), average (at best) guys in Julks and Dirden) and then a bunch of lottery tickets. Yordan I'm putting in a different category as a guy that will mostly DH, but the 30% of games he plays in LF are obviously super star level of OF play. Compare that to right now where I have Tucker, Chas, Meyers, Gilbert as all guys I think who pencil out to a minimum of 3 WAR type players over 600 PA, plus the 30% or so you get from Yordan in time at LF and that's really really deep in quality. If you believe in your development staff and scouting then maybe there is more in there for a guy like Barber than I think, and maybe a guy like Loperfido or Corona becomes Chas. You have added a lot of variance into the future projections here, but if you could get Robert, Tucker and Yordan all to play 30-50% of the time and layer in Julks for the other 50-70% of the time you are talking about an OF that might put up 15 or 18 WAR, which is just freaking stupid. Yeah, the more I think about it the more I'd be excited and say do it, even though it would be a really tough pill to swallow.
Spoiler https://theathletic.com/4704246/2023/07/20/mlb-trade-rumors-contending-teams/ 3. Houston Astros Trade partner: Chicago Cubs Targets: 1B/OF Cody Bellinger, RHP Marcus Stroman Astros GM Dana Brown has made it clear to other front offices that his team’s biggest needs are a proven starting pitcher and a left-handed-hitting first baseman/outfielder. The Cubs could have both available if they decide to sell at the deadline. Stroman is having a banner year, posting a 2.88 ERA over 20 starts, and he is expected to opt out of his contract after this season and hit free agency at age-32. Bellinger is a Comeback Player of the Year candidate who has slashed .311/.367/.527 with 12 homers and 12 steals. He plays above-average defense at first base and in all three outfield positions. He has a 2024 mutual option he will decline. This type of huge rental blockbuster would cost the Astros dearly, in terms of extracting value from their farm system, but a trade like this would also position them to be able to catch the Rangers in the AL West and, more importantly, give them a legitimate shot at back-to-back-to-back World Series appearances. It would be reasonable for the Cubs to ask for righty starter Brandon Bielak off their major-league club and one of their top prospects, such as 22-year-old outfielder Drew Gilbert, Houston’s first-round pick last year, who would become the headliner for Chicago. Throw in a couple of lower-level prospects and perhaps a deal in this range would work.
