This isn’t true. It’s as follows: 2023: $9.5M 2024: $12.5M 2025: $15M 2026: $20M (club option) 2027: $20M (club option) https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/chicago-white-sox/luis-robert-22648/
Really enjoy reading all your thoughts here - it’s nice having people like yourself (others as well but you especially) with actual knowledge and ability to post without homerism/bias.
What are you talking about? Dubon has a .688 OPS. / 91 OPS+ / .89 wRC+ That is terrible for a left fielder. So you are specifically talking about vs LHP. That's fine. If you are looking to put the best 9 players vs LHP on the field, LF is not the spot for him. Including Yordan, there are 5 OF on this team who are above avg vs LHP. His defense doesn't bring any extra value because LF simply is the least important defensive position on the field. Up to date, Dubon is .873 vs LHP, but Yordan, Tucker, Chas and Meyers are all over .800 and Julks is over .750. You want 2 of them on the bench? Bregman is the player who should be sitting ( at least 50% of the time) vs LHP. He is at .524. He has been terrible this AND not good last year. Dubon can play 3rd and his defense will add to his value.
Yes, I was specifically referring to platooning him with Candelario or similar acquisition at DH. I guess you missed that. Dubon is 4th in OB vs lefties. You may have a case for Meyers but he does have a lower OPS and the sample size is small. Dubon is 4th in OPS on the team against lefties. The players better: McCormick Alvarez Tucker Replacing a DH who can't hit lefties seems like a no brainer other than you lose his versatility if Pena or Altuve come up limping on a play. Putting him in left provides similar defensive depth as if he was on the bench. It would also give Yordan some DH time. Julks or Meyers could be better defensively, but enough to make up 70-120 OPS points? Probably not.. Bregman has hit lefties better than righties in his career. I worry about sample size influencing recent struggles. He always does better in the second half so it could be the case of his general poor hitting early in the season not yet being counter-weighted against the second half. In either case, sure, if he's needing a day off that could be a factor. He has skins on the wall. I'm not overly concerned.
Alex has been my favorite Astro since 2017. He won me over with his throws home in the playoffs, and walk off hit in game 5. That said, his struggles vs LHP have happened long enough now that it's more of a trend than a fluke, or small sample size. This is over 340 PA which more than 1/2 a season of everyday play. 2022: .703 vs LHP, .881 vs RHP= .820 total 2023: .524 vs LHP, .820 vs RHP= .740 total I think Dubon is a bench player. He's great to have on the team and huge help if someone gets hurt or needs a day off, but he's the 10th best position player and you don't go looking for a place to play him. If you feel different and are looking for a way to get him in the lineup, outside of covering days off, 3rd base vs LHP is the best place for the team.
Is it time to sell high on Dubon? He is terrible vs RHP (.629 this year, .601 career) which are 83% of the rotations among AL Playoff contenders. The team is loaded with players who hit LHP and are still much better than him vs RHP. The White Sox have been looking for a 2B for years, and Anderson has been awful at SS and could decline his option ( not likely but he HAS been terrible and hurt). If so, they will need both middle infielders. He could add value and reduce the other player cost of a Cease/Robert deal. I still think they will expect at least 2 SP that should be in the 2024 rotation in order to deal Cease. L.Garcia, France, Dubon, Meyers, Gilbert, and Whitley ?
I guess I read it wrong when people were saying that he had 2.5 years of control. He actually has 4.5 years of control which will make his price even heftier. I don't see how they trade him if that is the case.
I don't think Dubon's trade value is much higher than it was entering the season. He's performed admirably in an everyday role but he already projected to nearly that level. He's a valuable defensive player who doesn't strike out much and has enough power not to negate his contact ability. The only teams who would likely be interested in trading for him are similar to the Astros, looking for a good 10th position player. I would be very surprised if Chicago placed much value on Dubon. I am guilty of this too, but I think we should all take a breath on the Robert/Cease fantasy. I believe it to be true that Houston has talked to the White Sox about those players beyond just the initial ask, but if I were handicapping it, I would say that the odds of it actually happening are between 1% and 5%; not zero, but still incredibly unlikely. It would be franchise-altering deal for both sides and those usually don't happen. As to the package you proposed, I don't think the Astros can acquire Robert/Cease without at least one of Pena, Diaz, or Hunter Brown headlining the deal along with at least 3 other very valuable pieces. 11 more days...
Acquiring Cease and Robert could potentially shorten our window, but honestly who cares if we win another WS. This cannot last forever unfortunately.
Things I believe: If Houston doesn't trade for a good OF bat, they will call up Drew Gilbert in September. If Houston doesn't trade for a SP, they will call up Spencer Arrighetti in August. Houston WILL trade for at least 1 RP. I think even if Houston has a very underwhelming deadline, there are still reinforcements on the way to address all of their current roster shortcomings.
Acquiring Cease and Robert is a baller move. This elevates them past everyone in the AL if this happens. I just cannot see a scenario where this takes place without completely draining what little assets we have.
I don't agree with the idea that the window is sure to close. Yes, the stars of today and yesterday will fade, but if Houston executes in their player development, and Crane continues to be willing to field a top 10 payroll, and the GM makes good personnel decisions (FA/trade/promotions/manager), there's no reason to think Houston can't keep winning. There are a dozen or more players in the complex league who have star level ceilings and a very good number of players in the full season levels who have solid chances of being everyday caliber MLBers. Things might go south eventually, they might even be likely to, but the Astros demise is not guaranteed.
While the Cease and Robert talk is exciting, I would still rather make moves to improve at the margins rather than mess with the major and minor league rosters too much.
If he's facing left handed starters, he would not be starting many games. I don't think he has the arm for 3B. He definitely doesn't for CF. He covers ground ok. I think 50/50 he's in MMP left field he could be ok. As for Bregman, 300-400 plate appearances could still be too small. I would want to see dispersion over which months. If he faced lefties more frequently in the first half of 2022 and 2023 than se ond half of 2022 then it would weight to his poorer performance overall. Given he's been a poor performer overall in 773 of his last 1,055 plate appearances, it could be a fluke. Let's see how he finishes...
Finally some reality, this proposed trade is very unlikely to happen. Although Stros fans should be very happy if it did happen. You can't go wrong getting an ace and a top 25 player. But these kinds of players cost is going to be prohibitive. Like Garcia, Urquidy, Meyers, Pens, Gilbert, Arrighetti and a young prospect or 2 type prohibitive. I'm talking Baez or Gomez type prohibitive. The Dubon, Julks etc... type trade ideas some are putting on here just aren't going to cut it. A trade like this is really going to hurt. The return is the Stros should be WS contenders for at least the next 3-4 years and that should be more than enough time to rebuild the farm system to be much stronger than it currently is.
