Astros get: SP Justin Verlander RP Brooks Raley $15M Mets get: RHP Spencer Arrighetti OF Corey Julks Crane gets Verlander on the contract he pretty much offered him (1 yr plus a vesting option). Astros also get a very good RP controlled thru next year. Mets get a 4th OF/DH option plus Houston’s best pitching prospect.
In my opinion I would stay away from JV. Even if the Mets paid some of his salary. Not only is he signed next yr for 43 mil but if he pitches 140 innings (in '24) it's vested for '25 at 35 mil. He's already breaking down and has been up and down this yr and moving forward the odds are he'll break down even more. Just seems like there's better options then JV.
Would be nice if the Padres had a bad next 6 games. Right now they probably won’t sell if they go .500 or better over these next 2 series. Cards, Cubs, Pirates, and Mets seem pretty firm to sell. Mariners, Angels, and Guardians are the other 3 teams whose fate is undetermined. Firm sellers (9): Tigers, White Sox, Royals, A’s, Nats, Cards, Cubs, Pirates, Rockies Likely sellers (4): Mets, Angels, Mariners, Padres Likely buyers (2): Red Sox, Guardians Firm buyers (15): Rays, Jays, Yankees, Orioles, Twins, Astros Rangers, Braves, Phillies, Marlins, Brewers, Reds, Dodgers, Giants, Diamondbacks Adding Scherzer, JV, Snell, Bieber, and Ohtani to the SP market sure would help bring prices down for guys like Giolito, Stroman, and Montgomery. The Mariners are a big wild card because their GM is unpredictable. They could end up trading guys nobody thought would get moved (Logan Gilbert).
Dubon has been invaluable this year. But he is not quite good enough to be an everyday starter for this club. If everyone is healthy he is on the bench and only used as an understudy and cover days off. His value will likely never be any higher so if he can bring back a guy like Verdugo who could add a LH bat vs RHP to the bottom of the lineup, or fill multiple holes it may be worth it. It would be tricky because Altuve and Pena would still need to stay (get) healthy and need days off. But with Luck, Dubon should be on the bench throughout the playoffs anyway. It would mean Kessinger, Hensley, Bannon, or someone else would need to really step up or it would make another, smaller, hole. But I'm not opposed to it.
The “Jim Crane finds out he has a terminal illness and his dying wish is to win another ring” deadline: Astros get: SP/DH Shohei Ohtani Angels get: SP Hunter Brown OF Drew Gilbert Astros get: SP Justin Verlander RP Brooks Raley $10M Mets get: OF Corey Julks RHP Spencer Arrighetti OF Michael Brantley Astros get: IF Jeimer Candelario RP Hunter Harvey Nats get: OF/IF Pedro Leon OF Colin Barber RHP Enoli Paredes Playoff roster: 2B Altuve DH Ohtani 3B Bregman LF Alvarez 1B Abreu RF Tucker CF McCormick SS Pena C Diaz Bench: Maldonado, Candelario, Dubon, Meyers Rotation: Ohtani, Framber, Verlander, Javier Bullpen: Urquidy, France, Montero, Stanek, Maton, Harvey, Raley, Neris, Abreu, Pressly
Probably do all those deals. You lose Ohtani but you have JV under contract for next year so you still have a really solid top 3 next year plus plenty to fill out the rotation and the lineup is intact other than DH. You have nobody likely to fill that hole in the minors, so that’s it- that’s your off-season shopping list. That team, if healthy is also a top 3 WS favorite in 24. That gives 2 years to win another world series and then I think you strip it down and trade basically the entire major league roster. When the marlins did that after their World Series they won another win 4 years later. You could see the same thing happening as what happened with Luhnow only with just 2 fallow years and then positioned for another decade in contention. Pick early twice and save the money to really try to win it all in 26/27.
I think it would remain to be seen if a full rebuild would be necessary. Certainly trading away Brown and Gilbert is a devastating blow to the long term outlook, but as you said, the rotation would be fine for 2 years as they get JV and Garcia back to go with Framber and Javier (and France/Urquidy/etc.), and there are a few OF with star level upside who could replace Gilbert (Meyers, Corona, Loperfido). A lot can change in 2 years; maybe those complex league studs and recent draftees blow up and brighten the future. As much as I am a prospect hoarder, and as horrible as the on-paper values are against Houston in that Ohtani trade, I would be fine if Houston completed an all-in deadline like this. 2024 roster: 2B Altuve SS Pena 3B Bregman DH Alvarez 1B Abreu RF Tucker C Diaz LF Corona/Loperfido/Hamilton/Dirden/cheap lefty FA OF CF McCormick Bench: Meyers, Dubon, Lee, Kessinger Rotation: Framber, JV, Javier, Urquidy, France (with Garcia coming back mid-season) BP: Pressly, Abreu, Raley, Harvey, Montero, Martinez, Whitley, Bielak 2028 lineup: 2B Altuve SS Matthews DH Alvarez C Diaz 1B Clifford 3B Dezenzo CF Melton LF Baez RF Loperfido Bench: Lee, Kessinger, Corona
I’d be open to the idea of not tearing it down and trading everyone if we unexpectedly developed more talent in the minors than I see happening, but we are short a couple stars if your trade happens and. It really WS competitive.
We have no idea what any of these prospects will become no matter how many "experts" pretend like they know. In 2019 Framber had a 5.86 ERA, was walking 5.6 batters per 9 innings, and we were all screaming for him to be sent down. It was nearly unwatchable. Who here had him turning into an ace at that point? He was a nobody international prospect that was considered too old and only received a 10k signing bonus. Now he is a legit ace and helped carry this team to a World Series Victory. For all we know our 5th round pick will be a star. Mookie Betts, Tim Raines, Jack Morris, Lou Whitaker, and Ryan Howard were 5th round picks. So was Tyler Glasnow.
Tear It Down means you're trading Tucker, Framber, Chas, Yordan, Brown, Bregman, Altuve, Urquidy, Both Abreus, LMJ & Garcia (if they're healthy), the bullpen, etc...I hate this idea. All sportsfans in Houston should know this maxim: You either compete or you suck.
