I think you’re right, that package I put out likely won’t be enough. Leon and Dubin seem like good adds to get it more realistic; otherwise, maybe instead just add one prospect from the next tier up (Melton, Barber, Clifford, Loperfido, Dezenzo).
Of the Astros are interested in Verdugo, then I think the Hunter Pence deal is a good comp. Both are all-star level but not high enough to contend for an MVP RFers who have 1 year of control remaining. Pence brought back: Jon Singleton -a 19 yr old 39th overall prospect by Baseball America, in high A. Jared Cosart - a 21 yr old 70th overall prospect by Baseball America, in high A. Josh Zeid - a 24 yr old unranked lottery pick in AA. I realize it's a while ago, but this market appears to be as much a sellers market as any. I don't see trades being less advantageous to the seller. FWIW: both Singleton and Cosart were rated higher than Gilbert was to start the season, though when midseason grades come out I'm sure he and several others will rise considerably, so they are more valuable now. We probably need to realize that the cost of a trade is going to exceed what any of us has thought of so far.
Verdugo is nowhere near the player Pence was. Verdugo has never been an All-Star, Pence was already a 2-time All-Star when he was traded.
All Star selections are a pretty weak way to determine which is better. Pence 2.83 bWAR per 500 PA as an Astro Verdugo 2.64 bWAR per 500 PA since becoming a regular in 2019. Verdugo's best season before 2023 was 2020. If it had been a full season at the level he played, then he would be 2.95 bWAR per 500 PA. Even if Pence was better, I think they are very close.
#1 Pence was traded over a decade ago. Prospects value in trades has gone down a lot since then. #2 One should be using more than 60 games of data in the extrapolation. That extrapolation is 30% more value over 4.5 seasons. #3 Not a big difference, but probably should use 600 PAs instead of 500 PAs. #4 Pence played 4.5 seasons as an Astros. #5 Verdugo's data is cherry picked and Pence's isn't. #6 Health is a skill. Pence beats Verdugo in per stats, but his health allowed him to play a lot more. 4.5 WAR advantage over 4.5 years is big. #7 fWAR favors Pence by a lot. #8 Did Pence have an extra year of control when he was traded? #9 Even using your method, Pence accumulated WAR at a 7 percent faster rate.
When you are by definition below average(worse than half) in the state for Tex mex, how can you be considered world class. I guess our definition of world class is different. For other than barbecue, I can think of 1 restaurant I would drive from Houston to Austin to eat at and that restaurant only holds 8 people and is almost impossible to get a reservation at unless you know the owner.
I think he knows that we can develop low upside players aka Julks, Baliek, JP etc. In the very near future, he needs to extend our window, and get some potential stars to replace Bregman, Tucker, Altuve, Frambers production to continue production or we will be in mediocrity limbo. .
#1= I have never heard that prospects have less trade value today than 12 years ago. Can you please tell me where to find that information? #2= I prioritized actual stats rather than prioritizing the 60 game 2020 season. I added the extrapolation for 2020 to add value to my argument but clearly stated what I was doing and you can't pretend 2020 didn't happen. #3= only 69 players got 600 PA last year. Not that it matters much. Production per PA is the same, but 500 PA is a much more realistic expectation for a player. #4= I just realized that you responded to my uncorrected post. Yes, I was wrong and my math wrong so I deleted and reposted a corrected post. #5= I used the exact same data for both players #6= Verdugo has played in 91.4% of his team's games the past 4 years. On the Astros only Tucker at 92.0% is better. Health is not a factor. #7= Now who is cherry picking? #8= Both players have the same amount of control #9= I think that by Pence being 7% better that actually proves my point that while Pence may be better, Verdugo is close and a very good comp.
Another poster familiar with the valley, eh? I would consider the valley to be more Northern Mexican than strictly Tex-Mex but it is damn good. I could go for some tacos a la plancha from Alicias or maybe some tacos al vapor from La Curba about now.
Verdugo would cost McCormick in a straight up trade they would maybe add Paxton to get the deal done. Years of control are more valuable then stats overall. Cost effective players with multi years of control would cost more via prospects then an out going player on his last or 2nd to last year of his deal. Only way this doesn't apply is if it's some mega super duper star player
I'm not disputing you, but how can this be true? Was 7 years instead of 6 years the requirement at that time? Pence played 100+ games in 2007-2010 then a full season up to being traded in 2011. So he had 4 1/2 years of service time.
Not sure but I got my info from Spotrac. It shows he was still in arbitration years 2 years after he was traded from Houston to Philly. And he was moved at the deadline. That’s where I’m getting the 2.5 years from. I see what you’re saying though. My only point was that Pence had much more team control then than Verdugo does now
Let's talk Ohtani! What would you be willing to trade to aquire him and what are the chances of him signing longterm?
The Angels are dumb as hell, but they know what they have here. The conversation would start with Yordan or Tucker. No way in hell he'd sign long term.
If you play less than a full season in the majors it doesn't count as a year. For all practical purposes you get 6.99 years of team control if you wait 15 days or so to call up a prospect while he "works on his defense". Pence didn't have a full season in the majors his rookie year. So yes he had a full extra year of team control, he was a slightly more valuable player and teams were more willing to overpay back then before front offices were universally filled with bean counting nerds.
#1 You must be under a rock. Why did you choose this trade instead of a recent trade? Edit: We can pretend this isn't the case if it makes you feel better. #2 2020 happened. You extrapolated data from a 60 game set when he had nearly 4.5 years that suggests that 60 game set was an outlier in performance. I don't see how missing 102 games in 2020 makes up for the fact that Verdugo chewed up an extra year of service. If anything, the 2020 season data should be removed to make the years of service equal. #3 ...and yet Pence never had less than 600 PAs prior to the trade. #4 No response needed. #5 You used Pence's entire career and cherrypicked out the beginning of Verdugo's career that cost Verdugo an extra year of service time while providing no value. #6 Pence played nearly every game from getting called up and accumlated a lot more total WAR than Verdugo prior to his trade. #7 I prefer to use fWAR because it is better. This is what I use to compare players. #8 Pence did not start his rookie year in the majors. The Astros gamed service time rules such that he would not have a full 6 years of service after his 6th year in the majors. [narrator voice] Pence had an extra year of service [/narrator voice] #9 ignoring that Verdugo chewed up an extra year of service, using the inferior WAR model, discounting actually being on the field, and you think coming up 7% short is close? Pence produced 4.5 extra rWAR using 1 less year of service.
Just as a caveat: I see missing PAs due to Dusty very different than missing PAs due to small nagging injuries.
