I have him at seventeen on my list but I am listing him at second base and that is a very high ranking for a second baseman under my ranking system.
I said that after the covid years and the draft reduction that teams would be drafting a lot more seniors. Allowing the un-drafted players to sort themselves out in one more year at school makes a lot of sense and is one of the benefits of the smaller draft. I think that the disdain for drafting seniors is kind of misplaced when you consider the effects of the way the draft is now being done.
In the last couple of years I think the 12th round pick has become a fallback pick in case the deal with the 11th rounder falls apart. So far on the teams that have picked that way signing both has been very difficult.
I know nobody will listen but I will say it again anyway. Nobody cares about a catchers bat unless he is looks great behind the dish. Until he establishes himself as a catcher he is a position-less bat and there is a bunch of those out there.
I know. That's my fear. I don't like it. If they both get $500k cool. If we only get to sign one it feels like- what's the point? Maybe the 2nd rounder is better than I think he will be. Maybe we strike lightning with a guy with the Springer tool kit maximizing (but that's a dubious bet- springer is a true outlier imo).
a not small number of their higher floor college guys in the past either didn’t make the majors or did almost nothing when they got there. I think if anything you could argue this draft gets an incomplete cuz there’s so much volatility in the players drafted, but I wouldn’t say the volatility is innately a bad thing.
I don't follow the drafting process that closely, but can one build a narrative around the types of players pursued by the Astros under Luhnow, Click, and now Brown? i.e., did one generally favor younger/higher ceiling guys versus older college/high floor guys or was there never any kind of underlying strategy at play and the team simply took what it believed to be the best players available?
He certainly CAN be, but I don't expect him to hit his ceiling. I hope for 6 yrs of 2/3 games started, 120 HR and a .750 OPS and I think he has that kind of talent. But I expect much less.
Luhnow’s tenure is a much longer post. Click: it’s super hard to judge cuz he oversaw the drafts where the Astros lost their 1st and 2nd round picks and the draft pool money. He only had one full draft and early returns are extremely promising. It’s hard to judge how much he leaned college for Gilbert and Melton vs just BPA. Brown: obviously only 1 draft in but it’s pretty clear he’s willing to roll the dice on flawed, toolsy players and flawed prospects with interesting characteristics. Stats be damned in the UCLA guy’s case. I’d say he favored upside way over floor. BPA is super subjective. He drafted the players he wanted.
Brown drafted high upside players he could develop. Luhnow had top picks in the draft and got Correa, Bregman, and Tucker. He also had some duds. Luhnow's legacy beyond not screwing up those 3 players is his international signings. Alvarez through trade, Framber, Javier, Guriel, etc. He rebuilt the minor league system into a developmental powerhouse. Luhnow knew how to build a minor league system.
Everybody believes in taking the best player available but everybody also has situational exceptions.
Keith Law doesn’t dislike the Astros, Luhnow offered him the position of head of scouting. Keith said he couldn’t take it after how bad his experience in Toronto was. The problem with Law is that for as smart and well educated as he is, his methodology over the last 20 years has gone from being very progressive to very dated. He also is very very stubborn and has a hard time admitting he is wrong. It is too bad, he is a very kind and good person. He plays snarky on purpose for his job. He drives me nuts because he will point at Ronald Acuna or another can’t miss prospect as proof his evaluation system works - but fails to realize literally everyone knew Acuna would be a stud. I wouldn’t take what Keith says too seriously.
I will put it to you, the way it was given to me last night while discussing dog breeds and trucks….. The Astros from Brown, through Gross and down to the player development people all are confident that they can find and improve high floor prospects… they can find and develop a JP France or a Jake Meyers, even a Jeremy Pena and Chas McCormick. The problem is that there are only 9 positions on the field at once - and the Astros have gone from Verlander, Cole, Correa and Springer level players to good but lesser players. In the upper minors Brown and Gross are not confident they have enough star level players, which the Astros are starting to need and will need with Tucker, Altuve and Bregman all up soon enough. So, the Astros are willing to be more aggressive pursuing lower floor but higher ceiling players in the draft and international market. The Astros have not abandoned the high floor strategy when it is for value (they are pretty confident in their 3rd rounder and also a reliever they drafted will be big leaguers but with lower ceilings). The kid from Nebraska they took in round one would have been taken within 3 picks of the Astros pick from what I was told. So he wasn’t really a reach. The kid from Galena Park? That is someone Brown personally wanted and met with along with Gross and some player development people. Gross wanted him too. They view him as a major sleeper with very high upside. The only reason they didn’t take him higher is that they knew he would be available. So - the Astros reach for a handful of low floor and high ceiling players was on purpose and a response to the big league clubs needs and the composition of talent in the upper minor leagues.
The Galena Park kid sounds like Yordan 2.0. really big, hits for power and average. He can throw 95 mph but drafted as a hitter.
