Again being a lot more common is an argument. Now we can look at the lists and see the players added recently and see how many players made it and as of now are seen as non superstar ceiling players. Like in my list Wiggins would the clear player and a player who played in the 70s in John Drew. Guys like LamElo Ball and Ant Edwards people believe have superstar ceilings. That's the general consensus of those players. So ya, in the modern era it happens more so we should see more flukes in theory today.
I mean, just to play devil's advocate. Here's the same comparison with LeBron: LeBron - 19.1 pts, 5.4 ast, 5 reb, 1.5 stl, 0.7 blk, 3.1 TOV, .417 FG%, .290 3p% Green - 19.5pts, 3 ast, 3.8 reb, 0.7 stl, 0.3 blk, 2.3 TOV, .426 FG% ,343 3p% Whilst I fully agree that Green definitely needs to buy in on D to hit his ceiling, saying that one of these players looks great out of the gate and the other doesn't is actual nonsense. Just a thought.
You should actually respond to other posters with something other than the same list... like respond to their actual points in their replies to your post.
I absolutely did. They claim that modern era more players. My response: so in theory there will be a lot of modern flukes on the list. So let's examine who they are. Wiggins is the worst player outside of Green on the list. Who else would you say are flukes who are a product of the modern era and won't amount to much outside of Green here? LaMelo? Trae Young? My impression is general nba consensus, those players are seen as superstar ceilings.
I fail to understand what makes your counterargument valid. How about 6/20, 3/10 3-pt & 3/10 2-pt + 5/9 ft? That's 20 pt.s on 20 shots for you.
You're right, we definitely will start seeing more flukes, I can promise you that. Combine the younger players with the shifting attitudes towards "organic tanking" or whatever you want to call it, and I can assure you we will see a lot of flukes. Regardless, to repeat what I said earlier, I don't think that Jalen is a fluke. That was never a point I was trying to make. I just don't like the "under 21" stuff for the reasons I've explained. I'd much rather compare his first 2 years to any other players first 2 years, even if that player happened to join the league 1 or 2 years older than Jalen did. That's not disqualifying to me, and it's a better point of comparison.
Oh okay... you quote Lebron's rookie year, where yes, he was universally regarded as the Next Thing and a fringe all-star due to that defense and his assist ratio, to Jalen Green. Alright, I guess. In year 2, Lebron was an MVP candidate. What was Jalen's second year like? Its just dumb to compare Jalen to all time greats after his first two years. After a couple years in the league, you adjust expectations. Hopefully a real system under a defensive minded coach will get Jalen squared away and I can adjust my expectations back higher.
To me this simply doesn't make sense logically. From my understanding of player development, ages 19-21 are the years pro athletes experience the most rapid muscle growth development along with still developing their brains(average the brain is fully developed is like 23-25 years of age). There is immense difference in readiness between a 3 year college player who joined at 22 and a 19 year old who joined after one and done. Look at how different Jordan looked between his freshman year at UNC and his rookie year in the NBA. So ya it matters. And the sample size of one and done has existed for more than a decade by now. Almost all high end lottery talent of the past decade+ are 19 year olds.
Another thing is you put words into peoples mouths like "won't amount to much" I said he sucked his first two years. He did. I did not say he wasn't talented or that I am not rooting for him, because he is and I am. His expectation is more like Zach LaVine's - who is a "MAX" player. But after a couple of years in the league, when you have actual data versus NBA players you adjust your expectations. He was bad defensively. He was a very inefficient scorer. He didn't rebound or distribute very well. As a Rocket's fan, I want him to improve... but it would be unexpected for Jalen Green to ever become an MVP candidate and I hope the Rocket's organization realizes that as well so the org can develop this young core appropriately.
Ya Jalen Green isn't a Lebron level talent. There is a wide spectrum of talent between a Zach Lavine type of ceiling and Lebron. Green falls somewhere in between. I think the point of the exercise is to show that young players even all time goat level players start off their careers inefficiently. And in terms of winning impact, do you know who is the all time leader in lowest +/- in their first two years in league history? Kevin Durant. Young players, even all time talented young players struggle to impact winning.
Zach Lavine first two years: 12 ppg on 49% efg% and 53% ts% Green:20 ppg on 50% efg% and 54% ts And from watching Zach Lavine's first wo years of scoring plays vs Green's, you can see Green came in with a much deeper bag. Also Lavine is more of a straight line high flyer compared to Green. Green is more gifted in lateral agility and "wiggle".
I think aside from the Lebron/Luka/maybe Wemby types who walk in and make their team many games better starting on day 1- most guys at this age have fatal flaws. To your point, we definitely don't have THOSE instant superstars but I don't think it's unrealistic to think at least one of Green/Jabari/Amen/Sengun turns into a perennial all star at least. Ultimately the question is - can you win basketball games with this player because the super star and all star games titles are less about a player's specific skill set and more about whether they are contributors on winning teams. There was a time in his first few years when Kawhi couldn't shoot, dribble, or create very well, or a time when Klay couldn't dribble(like seriously - it was BAD), or Steph couldn't defend to save his life, or Giannis was all size and no refined skills or shooting, etc. Winning has a way of washing away the sins of your worst traits because a title and MVP later - Giannis is still a fairly unrefined player in terms of skills and Steph is still not a great iso defender...but on the other hand Klay developed the ability to put the ball on the floor competently enough to make him a way more dangerous offensive player and Kawhi DID learn how to shoot, dribble, and create.
I think any of Sengun, Green or Amen could become a top 10 player. Green I'm fairly certain will compete for a scoring championship in his career. Just needs to tighten that handle and 3pt shot. Sengun is someone I can never count out. Yes I think he can become unstoppable offensively in 2 years. 25 points and 8 assists is not unlikely in his future. Just needs the 3pt shot and get stronger. Amen I've only seen for one summer league game but if he develops a 3pt shot then I would bet yes he can be a superstar. If not, no way. Good thing we hired a great shooting coach. Critical to our future that these 3 improve their 3's. It would probably give us an unstoppable offensive trio.
Exactly. Very few and I mean very few players become instant superstars at ages 19-21. The type of players who do probably end up being in goat conversations. Zion if he had a healthy career for example, probably would be in a top 5 all time discussion if he had a long career but it looks like that won't be the case for him but that is 100% due to health issues and not on court ability. Luka if he continues his trajectory probably will be in at least top 10 all time convos. LeBron definitely already is.
Apologies, I'm not sure I'm getting your point, which may have been the intent? My response was to the "Just about anyone can average a lot of points if they're allowed to shoot enough". I don't believe that statement.
It doesn't hold water with Jordan, he was a career 57% TS guy High volume isn't the same thing as chucking when you are efficient. If Jordan had been a career 54% TS guy and maintained the same volume, the Bulls are a very different team and most likely don't win their early championships leading to them not having the team in place for the last 3. It makes that much of a difference.
We haven't even seen Sengun at full power, he has had to play under awful coaching and really bad players with the exception of Green and Jabari. Outside of that nothing. Imagine Sengun this upcoming year with Brooks and FVV along side an improved Green and Jabari... Assists all day, post moves all day.... He is going to be unstoppable. Chet will be pretty good if healthy, borderline all star for sure... Wemby is a bust...
Superstar: Amen Only thing he needs to have to be top 5 player in the league is a shot, which isn't going to be a piece of cake. After watching more of his story, interviews, work ethic, etc I believe at the worst he will become respectable (better than the Draymonds/Westbrooks) All star, Star, leading scorer territory: Jalen Green I believe Green will take a big leap this year and people will see him as a much improved play maker and defender. Some of that will be actual improvement and some of it will be from not having Silas/KPJ's drawn-out plays, which forced a lot of the players to play outside of the flow of the game. Potential All stars: Jabari Sengun Cam Whitmore Even though I don't list Tari, I'd rank him more important to our future than say a Cam Whitmore or Sengun. If Cam changes his tunnel vision ways he could become a star.
I hope Jalen Green peaks at a higher rate than Zach LaVine - who is a fringe all-star, but the defense limits the upside past that point. Does Jalen have that Dog in him to be a two way player? Can he learn to distribute and rebound at a higher rate? Until then, stop with the list, we have seen the list. I will grant that Jalen had to create more of his own shots, so maybe comparing him to all-time bad chuckers is not fair. He also gets to the line a lot, which is a sign of future offensive efficiency. Hopefully with a real system and better accountability, his self creation and inefficiency will recede.
