[ I mean it's more of a testiment to how deep our young talent pool is. Just too many bodies at Cam's position. Amen will play some wing minutes. Obviously Tari and then Brooks and Tate.
There’s really not that many players who have been allowed to do this at such a young age. It’s not common. It’s like when people post a rookie is “top 3 among his class” at something and there’s like 5 total players lol. Here’s the full list of guys who got to shoot 1800 shots before turning 21 (its 13 players) -
Who would you say are flukes in the top 20 that are mere beneficiaries of just having high reps at a young age? Wiggins? He's the worst player here but he still ended up being the 3rd best player on a chanpi team.
It also should tell you something that if the three worst players on this all time list outside of Green are LaMelo Ball, Bradley Beal and Wiggins while the rest are like first ballot level hofs(LaMelo still has a shot at that) then maybe it's incredibly difficult for young players to get that many shots based on talent as it seems like there aren't many flukes here?
Flukes as in their high volume and scoring at a young age is merely just a product of the opportunities given to him rather than talent. Aka "fools gold"
Green has by far the highest scoring ceiling and I think is the most likely to become a superstar in both the playing side of things and the media/popularity side of things. Jabari is the player with the highest 2 way ceiling though I think he's less likely. Amen has the physical tools but it's too early to say whether his weaknesses improve. Sengun also has a possibility, I just think of him, Green, and Jabari, Sengun has the less direct route to superstardom skill set wise.
I feel like Amen is the biggest TBD wildcard. He could leap front Green and or Sengun because of his combo of elite athleticism and IQ but it's so undetermined now because all we've seen him do it against is ote and a single summer league game. I don't think Amen cane in as refined as Green. Green came in with a deeper bag. I hope Green picks up Amen's habit of always looking up and being aware of where all your teammates are constantly.
I appreciate that @BaselineFade started this thread. Despite all the "Such and Such is the Rocket's Franchise Player" threads, I think most everyone realizes that we don't even know if ANY of the young core will eventually be that MVP candidate. Championship teams almost always have a first team all-NBA player leading their team - (exceptions being the Pistons of the late 80's and the Pistons of the '00s - those were both great defensive teams that were also very deep and balanced offensively). I am looking forward to the growth of the young core over the next 2 seasons, but will be surprised if any of the young core suddenly looks like a future MVP candidate anytime soon. I voted only for Amen at this point - I think it is very unlikely that anyone else is a first team all-NBA at any point in their career. Even Amen is unlikely to end up as an MVP Candidate. I badly want Jabari, Jalen, and Alpi to prove me wrong and hope that real offensive and defensive systems allow all 3 to flourish this year and put them on track to be all-stars during their peak years. Tari, Cam, and KPJ look like their upside is a bit lower than the others, but still as quality NBA starters that maybe make an all star game or two. I am excited about the Rocket's future, but I think this young core has to follow the Detroit Pistons Archetype versus the Jordan/Pippen bulls Archetype.
you don't think someone like Green immediately clears anyone in that Pistons era team in terms of talent and ceiling? Obviously guys like Billups played above their talent level due to work ethic, IQ and good coaching staffs. I don't know why you are locking out a player like Green from being a first or second team level player. Dude has the exact same stats or better in their respective first two years in the league than guys who everyone thinks will be that like Anthony Edwards and Paolo or currently that with guys like Devin Booker. And Amen has plenty of potential but I think this is "shiney new toy" syndrome. I don't think you realize that a player like Green predraft was a much higher rated prospect than Amen: https://www.nbadraft.net/players/jalen-green/ https://www.nbadraft.net/players/amen-thompson/ And given that Amen hasn't played a NBA game yet, we can only go by predraft comparisons.
I'm not trying to argue that Jalen is a fluke, I just really dislike the "under 21" stuff. I think it's a recent development to have so many players come into the league at such a young age, it used to be way more rare. It's a way to prop him up unnecessarily. I am infinitely more interested in the list of "most 30 point games in a player's first two seasons" than adding the under 21 caveat.
So who are the so many players? Like this list has LaMelo Ball, Ant Edwards and Denvin Booker as the modern players. Are they flukes? Yes I think it really gives perspective how good Green is for his age. I don't know why you just can easily dismiss his scoring abilities for his age. Age is extremely important. A 22 year old entering the league has a more developed brain and body than a 19 year old entering the league.
First off, I am not locking out anyone. I am just a rando on the internet giving my opinion based on Green's first two years in the league. He sucked - the team sucked, the coaching sucked. Anthony Edwards, Paolo, and Booker are all over rated in my opinion. Like you said, Green had as good of counting stats & was as efficient as those guys in their first two years - which only means that they were all pretty bad. Only Edwards has moved away from that label as he gets some credit defensively and has potential as a two way player while Paolo & Booker look awful defensively by the advanced bean counters. Now, Booker and Edwards are both looking like all stars/fringe all stars as they progressed and improved but neither is on a first team all-NBA track - despite the hype machine that is trying to market Ant as the new up and coming star. I am rooting for Green and I expect/hope Jalen Green will eventually figure out how to be his best version of himself and become a all star/fringe all-star, but to think he would be a future MVP candidate is a tough sell. MVP candidates that lead their teams to championship contention look great right out of the box as Rookies. There is a very short list of players in this category. Magic, Bird, Jordan, Hakeem, Duncan, Shaq, Kobe, Durant, Jokic, Curry, Lebron - all time greats that were the best player on over 80% of the champions of the past 45 years. Except for Curry, these players were all in the All-NBA discussion from year 2 at the latest (or should have been in Jokic's case). No one on the Rockets is in that category. The NBA is a star driven league and the rules favor those teams that have the very best two way players who can impact the game by in multiple ways. Billups was universally considered to be playing below his talent level until his Detroit years (#2 overall pick just like Green) and then he had a few peak seasons where he reached his potential within that system. I think Jalen Green's upside, if he learns how to play defense, is similar to Billups. With Detroit, Billups had years where he produced VORP's of 3.8, 3.9, 4.5, 6.1, 4.3, and 6.2 before being traded mid season to Denver... This falls just short of MVP type efforts, but might get the player on an all-NBA team.
I guess I see potential in Smith that few see. He is a teenager people. I see a 25 old Jabari who is seven feet tall, with a refined jumper, weighing in at about 245 and dominating in the paint. Time will tell.
1. Amen 2. KPJ 3. Sengun 4. Jabari 5. Green That is my order - but any of them could become the Superstar really. DD
I’m always surprised at how low everyone is on Sengun on this board. I get that Sengun only fans are annoying. I’m a rockets fan first and played basketball all my life. Sengun passes the eye test more than anyone through the past 2 seasons. I am a bit concerned for Jalen Green. But his ability to draw fouls and get to the line is impressive I picked Jabari as my second option though over Green. He struggled so much his rookie season but he has all the tools to be our best 2 way player. Perfect fit with Sengun and tbh he could fit on any team. Defense and shooting will always be in style. It’s too early for Amen, I love his personality, playmaking, defensive potential and athletic burst. He is going to be good. I’m high on Tari too, perfect role player/glue guy. I see his ceiling as Phx Mikal Bridges. I don’t think he has the tools to be Brooklyn Bridges on offense though. There is a lot to be excited about as a Rockets fan but it will take time, we can’t expect any of these guys to make an all star team for at least another 2 seasons or playoffs. Play ins maybe as a 10th seed is our ceiling this year
https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/nba-players-who-took-1500-fga-before-turning-21 I just mean that it's becoming more common. This is 26 guys who have done this since 1981-82, according to the website. That's 26 guys in over 40 years. That's less than 1 per year. And of those 26 guys given the opportunity to do this, 8 of them have come in the past 5 years. Jabari is definitely getting added to this list, and Paolo has a chance to as well. Victor will almost definitely be on it as well. I didn't really think it was a controversial take to say that guys are coming into the nba younger and younger, and getting more reps at a younger age. It used to not happen at all, and then it was reserved for only the most elite prospects coming straight out of high school (like Lebron). It seems like it's more common now and only becoming more common. Yeah I know you think this, and we're just gonna have to agree to disagree on it.
As I define it, there are never more than 2-3 superstars at once. These are guys that warp the floor and will you to championships. Clearly the best of the times--LeBron, Kobe, MJ, Dream, Bird, Magic, etc. It's hard to win a championship without one. Then there are high level all-stars, regular all-stars, and quality players. A team with a good grouping (and depth) of those can beat a team with one superstar. I would hope this is the path we're on. You can't bet on a superstar emerging but you can build a team with all-stars and quality at multiple positions (Bad Boy Pistons, Golden State)--and if you win that way, chances are at least one of your guys will get the mantle of superstar.
Jalen is in a different tier as Billups in terms of natural gifts so it's weird to even relate the two. The difference between Edwards and Green is Edwards does what he does in a team that wins more and therefore he gets more positive reception but ya a team that has established vets and stars is going to win more. It also seems like you have an inability to apply context of age and stage of development. Again, Green is literally in all time lists for scoring before turning 21. He has the 6th most 30 pt games in league history before turning 21. Look at the list of the top 20. The worst players are like Wiggins and LaMelo Ball. Almost everyone is a first ballot hofer. Outside of all time 19-20 year olds like Zion, Luka and LeBron, Green is doing fine.
