https://theathletic.com/4681470/2023/07/12/mlb-draft-2023-american-league-report/ Houston Astros This was an uninspiring draft for a team that just hired a highly respected evaluator, Dana Brown, as its GM; they landed just one player from my top 100 and overdrafted him by a round. That player is Nebraska infielder Brice Matthews (1), 57th on my board but taken at pick 28, a shortstop with plus speed who might be able to move to center if short doesn’t work out. Matthews has power from a dead-pull approach that’s left him very vulnerable to fastballs up, and if he works to close that off I don’t think he’ll have the same kind of power production given his build and swing. UCLA right-hander Alonzo Tredwell (2) didn’t pitch after an injury to his “back and ribs” ended his season in late April; before that, he’d shown three average to grade-55 pitches, led by his slider, and threw everything for strikes, but had nothing for lefties and showed a wide platoon split. Georgetown right-hander Jake Bloss (3) was a fourth-year graduate student, having finished his bachelor’s in three years at Lafayette. His velocity jumped this year by about 2.5 mph, and he shows four pitches, with the breaking balls pretty similar beyond their velocity. I would definitely send him out as a starter. Outfielder Cam Fisher (4) hit 30 homers for UNC-Charlotte this year, but punched out 63 times (21 percent) against middling competition, and struggled against breaking stuff and better velocity. Colorado prep infielder Chase Jaworsky (5) is very athletic and has good hands at the plate, while he’s a plus runner who should be able to stay up the middle. His lower half isn’t always synced up with his swing, but when it all works together it looks like a professional swing. The main worry here is just that Colorado hitters don’t see a lot of quality breaking stuff. I like the athleticism and bat speed. Right-hander Ethan Pecko (6) is a sinker/slider guy who generates a ton of groundballs with the former and gets enough swings and misses on the latter to see him as a big-league reliever. The delivery’s fine for a starter, which was his role at Towson, although he needs a changeup that finishes more down in the zone and generally has to throw more strikes. Stanford righty Joey Dixon (7) has a good changeup and a loopy little curveball that both got some whiffs this spring, helping his low-90s fastball play up, although he’s probably a reliever in the end.
Almost nobody is a good evaluator of these things. As always around draft time (or prospects in general) you disagree with my opinion, therefore you're wrong.
Keith Law has consistently displayed an anti-Astros bias for years now. It’s not that he knows nothing, but his evaluations have not kept up with the times.
Apparently Keith Laws astros hate boner is stronger than his live for anyone with a Braves halo around them. Of Law says we suck that’s the most heartening thing I’ve read or heard about our draft.
Law has been saying our farm sucked since our first championship and somehow we have a ROY candidate every year. Granted all those guys came from nowhere and none were highly ranked in Law's prospect lists. Either we have the best development staff in the world or we evaluate differently. Probably a little of both.
To be fair, I don't think being the Astros matters given he ranked the prospects before we drafted them. Obviously our front office valued players differently than many of the media sources available. I agree with Law about it being an uninspiring draft, but what do any of us know? I'm just going to be hopeful.
Law rates prospects on where they are now and physical tools. He downgraded Matthews because of a hole in his swing that he's identified. As a development staff, that's the exact type of player that should be drafted because if he could do that much damage with a flawed swing, imagine what he could do if we "fixed" him. We've learned from our JD Martinez mistake.
It’s almost impossible to truly rank these guys after they play a couple of years in the minors. Anyone upset or discouraged with our draft right now is nuts. It could be one of the best overall drafts we have ever had. It could be a total bust. In 4 years we will have a much better idea
I thought Korey Lee was a sure thing. Now, not so much. He just doesn't really have any hitting talent or power. At best, he can be Maldy without the power.
We're gathering on what I think is primarily a basketball forum to talk in depth about baseball, expressing opinions about the Astros late round picks, so I think a lot of us are nuts to begin with. I think the most common sentiment seems to be that we trust the Astros to find and develop players to put together a pretty good team. It's kind of fun to have a weird little space to talk about the draft and how it compares to previous drafts or our own expectations and thoughts of the players or draft as a whole. You're absolutely right that none of us really can predict what this draft will look like several years down the line. But what else am I supposed to do during the day, my job?
I think you are selling Korey short. He is already good enough defensively for MLB A player can be an "average hitting catcher" at a much lesser level than an "average ML hitter" Maldy is among the worst hitters in MLB history. I am not saying I expect Korey to be an all star and he certainly won't live up to a 1st rd draft pick. But I expect him to hit 10 HR and close to a .700 OPS over 350 ABs as a part time starter. Maybe end up 10 WAR over 6 seasons? Not a waste
My point was that he's definitely not a sure thing anymore. He could end not even being an average bat at catcher.
If he does that that sure as **** is living up to being a first round (ass end of the first round at that) draft pick. There are not 30 players in that draft that will have a more successful career than that. That's a success story not a failure.
