I think you are nuts. I don't think anyone is going to give up their best prospect in their minors plus a guy already established at the Major League Level, plus another couple good prospects for 2 months of Ohtani. You are talking about probably trading 18 WAR in Pena (that we only will have to pay roughly 20M to get) and somewhere between 12-25 WAR from Gilbert (again, that we will probably pay 15-30M to get- depending upon if he's at the low side or high side of that prediction), plus 2 other good prospects? Not a chance in hell. I know exactly how special Ohtani is- he isn't even close to that special for 2 months and 1 playoff run. No way. The price should be a top 100 guy and a couple 45 prospects, anything else is just sort of crazy. Established GG winning SS that can hit in a non-embarrassing way and has 4.5 years of club control? Even that part 1 for 1 would give me tremendous pause if I'm the Astros. Diaz is a no chance unless you get back 2+ years of club control for an all star for me as well.
I think they MUST get pitching help. To me the extra innings that the top pitchers have thrown vs 1st half last year, especially Javier, Brown, Pressly, Maton, and Abreu, is the biggest concern I have. Ideally a SP who can be a top 4 in the playoffs, Giolito, Stroman, Snell, and Montgomery are my preferences, but any inning eater will help the club. Add another bullpen arm who can help reduce the workload of the leverage guys in the 2nd half. There are so many I haven't even looked at near all of them. Giolito and Graveman from Chicago or Snell and Hader from SD make a ton of sense. But this market along with other teams having more ammo will make it very tough.
Maybe they won't but I do not see the Angels trading him for anything less. If they can't get that kind of a return, then they hold on to him, pocket the extra revenue he brings in, and hope to resign him. If he gets out on the market, then teams like Baltimore and Texas start driving up the price.
I don’t think the Angels will trade Ohtani, but if they do, some team will do something stupid. My guess is that if he is traded, he will bring back 2 prospects generally considered to be in the Top 75 in the league, plus another prospect from the Org’s top 30. Houston will not be in the mix. Yes, he’s a rental. But he might also be the best baseball player who ever lived. There may never again be a player like him available in trade.
My guess: Out: -1 of McCormick, Meyers, Julks, Diaz, or Gilbert -1 of France, Bielak, Blanco, Dubin, Urquidy, or Arrighetti -2-3 of Leon, Dirden, Melton, Corona, Daniels, Barber, Hamilton, Dezenzo, Loperfido, Perez, Whitcomb, Kessinger, Lee, or Clifford In: -a multiyear late inning RP -a quality SP -a quality lefthanded bat Playoff roster: 2B Altuve LF TBD 3B Bregman DH Alvarez 1B Abreu RF Tucker C Diaz SS Pena CF Meyers Bench: Dubon, Julks, Maldonado, Kessinger Rotation: Framber, TBD, Brown, Javier BP: Pressly, Abreu, TBD, Neris, Maton, Stanek, Montero, France, Urquidy
I get that- like I said I know who he is. I just can't conceive of likely trading away 40 WAR at cheap money for best case scenario 4 WAR, and moving from something like a 12% chance of winning the WS to a 15% chance. That seems almost completely insane. Even for the best ballplayer ever, who could get a blister and be next to worthless for the next 2 months. Or pull a hammy. Or whatever. It's sooooooo much risk
It really is about being a risk taker and if Othani hits the market you can bet the Yankees will pay whatever it takes to get him. This off-season I think the Giants, Mets and Mariners will also be in the Ohtani market.
Any 3 of: Leon, Dirden, Melton, Corona, Daniels, Hamilton, Dezenzo, Perez, Whitcomb, Kessinger, Bielak, Blanco, Dubin, Julks, or Lee Or one of Barber/Clifford/Loperfido/Arrighetti and 1 of that group. Gilbert, Meyers, McCormick, France, Urquidy, and Diaz are off the table for rentals.
I like this list, but I would probably do Meyers for someone solving my SP and RP problem at the same time. Other than that, sure.
I would consider Meyers for both Snell and Hader, but I would push hard to get SD to eat some salary and include a throw-in lotto prospect (like Jay Groome or Josh Mears). I probably wouldn’t do the deal otherwise.
I would for sure do Meyers for Hader, Snell, and Grisham, and probably be willing to add a decent prospect from the group I listed in that deal.
This is not the year for the Astros to trade the farm for a player or 2. I think if anything they should be sellers
He's got one of my favorite Muppets as his avatar...I cut him a whole bunch of dumbass slack for that.
As mentioned previously I respect your opinion. As I previously said I think the CWS will be able to get more for Giolito and Graveman for just Meyers and the same goes here with SD. Yes both Snell and Hader are FA after this yr but you're looking at possibly the best SP and closer on the market and there's multiple contending teams who desperately need this. I guess we'll see how it plays out.
