I am curious if any of the seriously under slotted round 1-10 picks in previous drafts have ever made it into the top 10/20/30 prospect lists.
Live draft tracker for Astros: https://www.mlb.com/draft/tracker/2023/all/team/astros which is not keeping up with @tellitlikeitis
Matthews ranks 4th on my current org list. Tredwell will slot in the 9-15 range. Bloss, Fisher, and Jaworsky will be in the 25-40 range. The other guys will be in the honorable mention list until they show they were underrrated. Hopefully they get a player tomorrow that slots in the same range as Tredwell.
Baseball draft and signing 'em is different compared to other pro sports. If the player is not happy w the offer and if they are HS or have college eligibility remaining then they can hold out and enter the next years draft. Could improve or not. Brady Aiken was offered millions by Stros and he turned it down then we got Yordan and Justin Verlander and the rest is history! Are we thinking we passed on a top talent bc chances of signing him was slim?
I've learned from the Astros' drafts over the last several years that the 11th Round is the most interesting round! Can't wait for the @tellitlikeitis thread tracking the signing bonuses, etc. Easily my favorite CF thread of the year.
Back of the envelope, assuming Matthews and Jaworsky sign for slot, Houston should still be able to scrounge up between $1M and $1.5M of savings from their Sr and 4th yr Jr draftees. That should be enough for any of the remaining undrafted prospects who are at all open to signing.
Outside of Tanner Witt, I don’t see any player that I think would immediately crack Houston’s top 10 prospects. Witt would rank in the 5-8 range for me. There’s a dozen other guys still undrafted who would slot in the 10-15 range.
MLB pipeline has both Matthews (draft #57) and Tredwell (draft #63) as 50 grade prospects. They currently have only Gilbert rated higher, and Melton, Barber, and Clifford as 50s. So theoretically, both should fall between 2 and 6 among Astros top prospects Fangraphs has Matthews rated a 40+ (draft #39) which would put him between 4th-10th in the system and Tredwell (HM) as a 40 which would fall between 11th -20th.
It depends on what you consider seriously underslot. Ryan Hartman made the majors after a $10k bonus. Garrett Stubbs got $100K of his $176k slot. Quincy Hamilton got 13% of his slot and Joey Loperfido got 33% of his slot. Hasn't been very successful overall, but most 7-10th round picks aren't.
I don’t think Pipeline has updated their grades since the season started. Fangraphs aligns more with how I see it, although I disagree with quite a few of their individual player ratings.
Yea I think Brown really wanted Matthews and knew he wasn't going to get him in the 2nd round. It isn't like the other sports where you can trade up or back during the draft. He thought the kid was who he wanted and took him As for the Sr draftees, it's likely a twofold path. We will get savings for overslot later on, and also potentially get some guys who can get here quicker. Let's not forget the Braves had no problem moving guys quickly through the system. He is likely looking for one or two guys who can get to Houston on a fast path
