For 2020-2021, they hardcapped the bonuses for UDFA at $20K. Previously (and currently) they were like draft picks, $125K doesn't count against the pool, but anything above that does. A guy like Dezenzo had little incentive to sign for $20K if he could potentially get $125K the next year. They changed it prior to last year's draft, but the only UDFA the Astros appeared to sign were VanWey and Temple. I think the Astros might fare better under the larger draft and before the minors contracted, because they seem to be better than average at player dev. I think right now we're largely seeing the impact of the 5 round draft, which is much too short. Without short season leagues and most teams having just one FCL/AZL club, it seems like 20 is a fairly reasonable length. We don't see the Johnny Football draft picks any more. Remarkably the As did an even worse job drafting a former Aggies quarterback.
I am hoping that eventually they have a single 30 round draft that includes international amateurs (and any amateur player 17 or older can be eligible). I think that would be about the right number.
Is there a proposal newer than this? https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-international-draft-negotiations-update Intl and domestic drafts, separate, make the most sense to me.
I think I'd prefer that the draft change to be more like the IFA than the IFA getting a draft, but that's almost certainly not happening. I think combining the two might have pretty severe consequences for baseball in the Dominican Republic. As it stands, there's a $150+ million pool of money available for the top international baseball players, much of which is spent on 16 year olds from the Dominican. Even if they increased the draft pool by that amount, a significant chunk is likely going to less risky college players. I'm not sure how having similar aged American players and Latin players in the same draft will play out, as the Americans will have leverage with college commitments that the Dominican/Venezuelan/Cuban players might not. I'm sure the top end talent will still get theirs, but if you can get two mid-tier latin players for the price of one mid-tier American, you're probably going to do that, right? If significantly less money ends up in the Dominican Republic, how will that impact the investment in baseball there? Will Cuban players be less likely to defect? Some teams might just shut down their Dominican academy and bring any Latin draftees stateside. I'm not sure that there's a morally right or wrong situation here. One could argue it's not great to dangle $150 million/year to ensure that trainers find and develop the best athletes in the country to import for our entertainment. Alternatively, it's pretty cool that young Dominican players have a chance to greatly improve their situation in life by playing baseball. Baseball's player acquisition rules are one of my favorite niche topics, but the whole situation is pretty complicated. That's probably why they pretty much punted on the international draft decision.
I don’t see how the same total money being consolidated into one draft would result in international players getting less. By that theory you’re accepting that currently the international signees are getting more than they’re worth relative to US amateurs. I don’t see how that’s possible. My guess would be that the bonus money ends up relatively close to how it’s distributed now. I’m also assuming international amateurs would eventually be more integrated into the stateside evaluation process to level the playing field in that regard.
I do think that international amateurs are getting paid more than they are worth compared to their American amateurs. Or rather they are getting paid closer to their worth. The total draft pool is $300 million. The international pool is over $150 million. International players make up ~30% of the league, but not all of them sign as amateurs. The highest paid international amateur prior to hard caps was Yoan Moncada at about $60 million. How much would teams bid for Dylan Crews? Jacob Melton, Ryan Clifford, German Rodriguez, and Esmil Valencia all got about $1 million, Drew Gilbert got $250K more than Camilo Diaz. I'm not sure what the best comparison is, but I think the draft suppresses value more than IFA. Maybe raising the age to 17 and not having deals made at 13 or 14 will even it out.
Luis Baez with his 7th homer in the FCL this morning. Baez is now tied with Roberto Alleyne for the 2nd-most home runs in GCL/FCL Astros history. This is his 15th game in the FCL. I would imagine that after almost 300 plate appearances in the complex leagues, he's ready (at least offensively) to play in games that have crowds.
The DSL teams are playing each other today and Karniel Pratt has a grand slam for the Orange team. That's his second home run of the season.
Angel Macuare threw 2 innings with 6 k in that FCL game. Should be ready to rejoin Sugar Land in the next 2 weeks or so. Could be a boost to their flailing rotation.
It's gotta be for non-baseball reasons. He's dominating the league. First year stateside, they probably want him in a more controlled environment. It's mostly latin players in complex ball and they're all probably taking English classes together and getting acclimated to America together.
Eduardo "Aaron Judge" Perez hit a consolation two-run home run (2) for the Blue team. The Orange team won 9-3.
Gilbert Temp inactive today, hopefully not a trade. He is among my untouchables. Untouchable Prospects Gilbert Clifford Gordon
He’s inactive because of the Futures game. I would be very hesitant to trade Gilbert, Barber, Clifford, Baez, or Gomez. Everybody else should be on the table as long as they get fair value.
Lol, 5 legit OF prospects. pick 2 to protect. Lets get some value before some of them inevitably die on the vine.
I'm keeping Gilbert and Gomez. Although I would also keep Clifford, unless I got a SP1 in a deal for him. There's a good chance that Clifford will be the Stros future 1B.
