I want Abreu extended too. Altuve shouldn’t need any extra money for an extension- his baseline number is like 26 right now right? give him 6/150 and that gets him to retirement as an Astro, 3,000 hits and keeps the cap number the same. Unless you think his next deal is going to be worth more than 150 which would surprise me I guess.
I would be very surprised to see Altuve get another 6 year deal. This year or next. At the end of this contract he'll be at the end of his physical prime. That's right when aging curves suggest he starts his decline phase. 4 years would be generous. 3 years (for his age 35, 36, 37 seasons) would be similar to Jose Abreu's contract. Remember he basically has no current defensive value. When the bat falls off he'll be pretty worthless (like Abreu early this year).
If it’s 3 years on the next deal it’s probably more than 75. I’m fine with Altuve making a 50% premium on this next deal if it doesn’t mess up our cap for services rendered to the organization. he’s never been properly compensated in his entire career for what he is. If he gets a couple extra years while keeping the base line number down in absolutely fine with that. Not saying it will happen but it would be good.
My o/u for an Altuve extension is $125M/5yr with a 6th year team option that vests into a player option based on games played in the 5th year. Guarantees he retires an Astro, keeps the AAV <$30M, obeys Crane’s 5 year rule, pays slightly less than market value. That assumes he finishes this season healthy and productive. If he averages 3 wins over the first 3 years of the contract it wouldn’t be a terrible deal even if he didn’t do much the last 2 years; he just put up 6.6 wins last season.
I think the narrative of 'never properly compensated his entire career' is kinda over. He's making $29m per year in each of his age 30-34 seasons (5 years). He was definitely underpaid through his first 7 seasons, but he's getting a fair market rate now. He's getting paid all-star money and performing like an all-star. I would be shocked if he got that kind of contract. No other team in baseball would give a bat-first 2nd baseman going into his age 35 season a 5 year deal with a team option for a 6th at that kind of money.
https://www.spookynooksports.com/ Nook, are you affiliated with Nook Sports. PA and OH. Sounds like Stros may be targetting a couple relief pitchers. Maybe we can rely on our offense, counting on a healthy Yordan, Altuve n co. and get our TOR guys thru 5 or 6 innings and close em down from there. Could be good. I am eager to get Yordan and Altuve back in their top form! Lessgo!
What kind of contract would you offer? If he’s coming off 3 consecutive 3+ win seasons, a 9 figure deal is probably in play. Abreu is more defensively limited with more red flags and was coming off a less productive 3 year run and got $60M/3yrs.
It's kinda moot how well he's done up til FA. It's all about how he'll perform over the life of the next contract. Abreu's contract should be a cautionary tale for giving large amount of money to a player entering the physical decline phase. I still think Altuve gets more money and maybe an extra year (cuz he'll be 1 year younger and play a slightly higher def position), but $3/75m with a team option for a 4th year seems reasonable. Keep in mind if Altuve slips defensively he's basically a DH and then his value goes down even more. EDIT: looking back over the last few off-seasons, it's very uncommon for a >30 y/o 2B to get a multi-year deal 2023: Brandon Drury (age 30.2) got 2 years/ $17m ($8.5m AAV) 2022: Marcus Simien (age 31.2) got 7years/$175m ($25m AAV) 2021: DJ LaMahieu (age 32.5) 6 years/$90m ($15m AAV), Tommy La Stella (age 31.9) 3 years/$18.75m ($6.25m AAV), Kolten Wong (age 30.2) 2 years/$18m ($9m AAV) 2020: Zero Basically only Simien got that kind of AAV and he was 4 years younger. I still think $3/$75m would be a reasonable offer to Altuve, but now it seems alot more generous than I first thought.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/07/farhan-zaidi-discusses-giants-deadline-plans.html Giants get: SS Jeremy Pena OF Corey Julks Astros get: OF Mike Yastrzemski SS Marco Luciano IF Casey Schmitt LHP Carson Whisenhut LHP Reggie Crawford Astros get a star caliber LHH OF with 2 more years of control, a top 100 SS prospect, a solid MLB utility guy, and 2 very high upside pitching prospects. Giants get a long term SS with star potential and a RHH OF to offset their glut of lefties. This trade only makes sense for Houston if they believe Pena and Dubon are going to continue to perform about how they have this season. That’s Yaz plus 3 of SF’s top 10 prospects. Giants fans would probably not think that deal is fair.
Honestly (and sadly) I think altuve is starting to breakdown. The fracture was obviously a abnormal injury but every year he has soft tissue stuff now. I think he is now on his decline bc of it. Maybe it's the small frame combined with being in the world series every year that is contributing.
I think astros are going to be set at lf. Going into the postseason, I think they will better at dh (yordan), catcher (Diaz fingers crossed), and 1b, then they were last year in playoffs. They haaaave to get a number 2 bc at this point you can't rely on javier to be that and brown is too young. It be nice to also get a bullpen arm or two but offense with everyone back healthy should be ok. I know that makes no sense when you look where astros rank offensively and team Era but things change in the playoffs.
You might be right. Altuve is more comparable to Semien and LeMahieu than the other players on that list. And I still think Altuve’s next deal will ensure he retires an Astro, meaning 4 years minimum but more likely 5 years. But you’ve convinced me that $125M is probably too heavy. Maybe $90M/5yrs with added incentives for awards and plate appearances. That is a really low AAV for a still-productive HoF caliber player on a contract that ends before the player turns 40.
I still believe a deal for Kris Bryant knowing his versatility helps this team over all. He can play all OF spots and Corner Infield spots. This would mean our depth would be greater. Trading Montero in the deal frees up his cash for Bryant. We add in a couple prospects to make it work for the Rockies. You could use Bryant as a super utility to keep everyone on the up and up. You could still aim for another bat. CF like Verdugo. Who gets on base and hits.
Really behind the Kris Bryant trade. Also opens up more options if Bregman or Peña gets hurt since he can play 3rd and bregs can play SS. Drop montero and a corner outfielder and we’re golden. also tired of seeing the Peña trade ideas. Good lord guys. We had Correa for years, then he left and we got lucky and replaced him with a WS MVP in Peña. Who is every bit as good defensively but working on hitting. Meanwhile we all hated dubon and dusty for playing him, now he has half a season of hitting above avg although still with no power, and suddenly we are all clamoring to trade Peña with the safety of dubon who has even lest time at being great than Peña does but it’s apparently enough to rule out Peña and rule in dubon.. y’all’s changing with the weather is nuts.
"still-productive" needs to be balanced with "very strong possibility of hitting the decline phase and never being productive ever again". Dustin Pedroia had a similar early career arc. 45.1 fWAR through his age 33 season including 3.6 fWAR in his last full season at age 33. Then he had negative fWAR in the next two injury plagued seasons before retirement. Altuve is slightly better (currently 49.1 fWAR in his age 33 season) and has had stronger platform seasons (6.6 fWAR last year), but it's so hard to tell if what he'll be able to maintain. Paying him $25m per year at 36 is a lot different than paying him $25m per year at age 29. (I'm not against signing Tuve to finish his career in Houston, just saying the contracts moving forward need to look alot different). Flip side, an extension for bregman at age 32 is a bit less risky.
Totally disagree about Bregman. He has more injury history and far less consistent performance compared to Altuve; I think that more than outweighs their age differences. And that ignores the impact each player has on the culture. I would MUCH prefer to see Houston extend Altuve over Bregman. Altuve’s age is certainly a factor. But if he were 28 we’d be talking about a $250M+ contract, so a $90M or $125M contract does seem to be taking into account his age and the risk of a rapid decline. I too fear Altuve falling off a cliff, and have for the last 3 seasons. But he’s kept chugging along. He’s such a unique player that it’s really hard to put much weight on comps when trying to gauge his value or predict when he will decline. That said, of course the fact that almost all players decline rapidly at some point in their 30s should weigh heavily into any contract he’s offered.
Bregman is the much better defender, one of the best in the league. I think they extend both unless Bregman gets too expensive.
I agree that Altuve is the heart of the Astros, not Bregman. But it's impossible not to factor in that Bregman will be in his age-30 season next year and Altuve will be in his age-34 season. Again, if we're talking about future value (which is the next contract), I have to think Bregman is more valuable moving forward. Especially if you're talking a 4-5 year contract, there's a very low probability that Altuve would out-perform Bregman I think the extensions come down to price.
