Looking at the standings, gotta think CWS, STL, and NYM are close to selling. Those are probs lt the most talented selling rosters. flaherty on STL would be a nice pickup. I wonder if Brown tries to pull of something big and restock through the draft. Is there a world where we land JV for pieces where NYM picks up part of his salary?
Probably. Meyers is in a similar position to us trading Straw and Siri. They are good players to have, but hes more valuable to a team where he's the regular starter. Barber and Leon are going to be passed up by Gilbert, so they are also staring at being 4/5 outfielders in Houston (though I guess Julks gets plenty of time). Arrighetti is a tough loss just because we don't have much in the way of pitching prospects.
Probably. Meyers is in a similar position to us trading Straw and Siri. They are good players to have, but hes more valuable to a team where he's the regular starter. Barber and Leon are going to be passed up by Gilbert, so they are also staring at being 4/5 outfielders in Houston (though I guess Julks gets plenty of time). Arrighetti is a tough loss just because we don't have much in the way of pitching prospects.
Astros get: OF Alex Verdugo SP James Paxton RP Nick Pivetta Red Sox get: OF Jake Meyers C Korey Lee RHP Spencer Arrighetti OF Pedro Leon Playoff roster: 2B Altuve LF Verdugo 3B Bregman DH Alvarez 1B Abreu RF Tucker CF McCormick C Diaz SS Pena Bench: Maldonado, Dubon, Julks, Kessinger Rotation: Framber, Brown, Paxton, Javier Bullpen: Pressly, Abreu, Neris, Maton, Pivetta, Stanek, Montero, France, Urquidy
What is Arrighettis ceiling? Could he be a 2? If I thought that probably not. If I thought his ceiling was 3 then probably.
Looks to be a fair deal, but I don't think Pivetta fits. He walks too many batters which is what got Stanek benched last post-season. Substitute Chris Martin and I think the deal fills all holes, as long as Paxton stays healthy.
Who knows. When they first got to AAA what was the ceiling of Framber? Javier? Luis Garcia- oops sorry he never pitched above A ball lol. I don't think anyone outside of the Astros organization think Arrighetti has a ceiling above a #3 SP. If he had #2 ceiling, national raters would talk about him and he would considered for top 100 prospect lists From MLB.COM: He threw strikes in college and doesn't have to be precise because his low arm slot and the extension in his delivery create a lot of deception. He could be a No. 4 starter if he locates his pitches better, and his fastball/slider combination and competitiveness would play well out of the bullpen. From Fangraphs: He has the vertical fastball/breaking ball attack that is typical of this system, and the relief risk, too. The quality of his fastball strikes is pretty reliever-y and his delivery does feature quite a bit of effort (Connor Brogdon is a good delivery comp), so we’re more on Arrighetti as an eventual reliever than a four-pitch starter. Obviously the Astros see something in him, just like so many before him, but the national perception of him means his trade value is likely much lower than the Astros would want or expect if they were to give him up.
What is Arrighettis ceiling? Could he be a 2? If I thought that probably not. If I thought his ceiling was 3 then probably. yeah that’s my point about what the internal ceiling is before is trade him. No way I do that package if my development people told me he could top out as a top 50 starter in MLB. If they tell me I’ve got another Urquidy on my hands I tell them great job fellas, good work on the development and make the trade.
When are posters going to stop putting credence to these sites when it comes to the young Stros pitchers. I trust the development staff much more than what some dude at these sites thinks. Why? The Stros development guys have proven to be right almost every time they bring guys up. Look at Fence and Blanco this year as an example. These guys weren't highly rated either. But they're producing.
If you think that’s an obvious overpay then I think you’re going to be shocked at what teams end up giving up for players like Verdugo and Paxton. The relief market is flush so I don’t think prices will be that high for those guys but everyday caliber bats and SP with a viable chance to start a playoff game are going to be extremely expensive. There’s a ton of teams that want them and only a handful of guys to go around.
You say "SP with a viable chance to start a playoff game are going to be extremely expensive". I definitely agree with this but yesterday you're also throwing out a trade of Giolito (who many consider to be the best possible SP available) and Graveman (an excellent arm in anyone's pen who's also signed for next yr so he wouldn't be a rental) and in your hypothetical trade you're suggesting the Stros offer only Meyers to get these two?? I mean come on there's no way the CWS would do this and to quote you it's going to be "expensive". That's not even in the ballpark to get both Giolito and Graveman.
Anything is going to be an overpay. If you think that is not acceptable, then you are not going to be happy with any deal that gets made. Yes, Paxton is always an injury risk but has a TOR, playoff calibur arm and is healthy and pitching well now. That's the type of risk that will allow the Astros to fill holes without completely gutting the system
That's kind of my point though. Organizations, and fans of organizations are always going to have an inflated opinion on the value of their own prospects. Other organizations are not going to feel the same way. These scouting reports from national outlets are close to how other organizations value these prospects. When trading, it doesn't matter what you think a player is, or even what he really is. I realize the Astros have an extensive history of being right. It matters what the other team in the trade thinks he is. And that is going to be closer to that national opinion than your own. Either hold on to him because you think he is better, or trade him at their value because you jeed what they have. Those are the only options.
That’s not a disagreement about “expensive”, it’s a disagreement about Meyers’ value. If you view Meyers as the guy who has posted 2.9 fwar over 557 MLB pa, an elite defensive CF with a slightly below average bat but potential for more, who comes with 4 more years of control, that’s worth a LOT. If you view him as something less than that (based on...????), then sure, he’s not worth much and can’t be the headliner for anything meanginful. On a career fwar/pa basis, Meyers has been roughly as good as players like Randy Arozarena, Ian Happ, Bryan Reynolds, Cedric Mullins, and others that people view as star players; if you were talking about trading for one of those guys when they had 4 more years of control left, you’d be talking a package involving multiple top 100 prospects coming back. I understand Meyers hasn’t played consistently enough to warrant that kind of value but to suggest he’s not a good trade chip is off base.
What diminition in value (if any) do you think Dusty's decision making in how he apportions lineup time has on guys like Meyers and Chas?
It’s hard to say. It’s something I’ve thought about a bit. Are they more valuable, because with consistent playing time and ideal matchups they’d be even more productive than they already have been? Or are they less valuable, because you can assume they’re being used only when fresh and in ideal matchups, so they’ll be less productive if deployed in a more traditional full time role? One thing about Meyers is that he has been played VERY inconsistently in his career, AND I think he has played a LOT of games hurt. So I think the 3 win player he’s been over roughly a full seasons worth of career pa may not be anywhere close to how good he’d be when fully healthy and playing consistently, especially since so much of his value comes from his defense. I really like Meyers and really really hope to see him play a full 130 game, 600+ pa season soon. I fear he could end up being a 4-5 win guy for 2-3 years and I don’t want that to be with another team. But if they get the kind of value that helps them win another ring it’ll be worth it.
I agree with this. However, I think that deal probably does not make sense because teams that trade away MLB talent usually prefer multiple options in return. It reduces the risk. I think the White Sox are more likely to want 3-4 legitimate prospects than a single young semi proven player. FWIW I still think Giolito and Graveman would give this team the best chancr to compete. With the questionable status of Brantley, a bat to improve the lineup vs RHP is the only other thing needed.
