Astros, without blinking, based on price, performance, and control. Bellinger has been his terrible self outside of a hot April. McCormick is better than Bellinger; Julks is your backup anyway when you have Yordan and Tucker out there. Both of the Astros are under control for longer and cost nothing. This is a trade that makes the Astros worse, adds to their payroll, and costs them years of player control.
I take it as a compliment when you disagree with one of my ideas. If the GM simply employed a “do the opposite of what IdStrisfan thinks”, the Astros would be in great shape.
Bellinger and McCormick project to be roughly equal hitters going forward, but Bellinger bats lefthanded and can play 1B. Happ projects to be significantly better than McCormick and Julks; Happ also can hit lefthanded to provide addl lineup balance. Happ also is controlled thru 2026. So the deal would very likely make the Astros better this season and possibly thru 2026, the question is if it’s worth giving up the additional control. I wouldn’t argue if you said the deal only makes sense if the Cubs kick in some money; I originally had them kicking in $15M but took it out since it seemed too lopsided toward Houston that way.
Happ signed a 3 yr extension that goes into effect next year. Players never sign extensions then get traded before the deal even begins. Both Happ and Bellinger have played everyday, made all star teams, and won gold gloves. Chas MAY have played himself into Happ's league, but at very least they are equal. He still has not been an everyday starter which reduces his value until he does. Julks is a AAAA player who has played enough this year to show he can play in the bigs, but his offense is league average even after a hot streak. His defense means he must be significantly above average with the bat to have any value. Any team could have chosen him in the rule 5 draft and he really does not have any more value now than he did then. Bellinger is an impact rental player that will command AT LEAST 2 mid-level prospects (similar to Cristan Vasquez last year) while Julks is a throw in at best. So the Cubs would view this deal as the Astros giving up Chas, who is likely very close but slightly less value than Happ in exchange for both Happ and Bellinger.
So you think the deal is lopsided in favor of the Astros, Major thinks the deal is lopsided in favor of the Cubs. That makes me feel pretty good about how fair it is.
I think there are 3 things I was wrong about in my analysis. 1) Corey Julks has no value. I personally don't understand it, but am.just a fan. Apparently, his 1/2 season sample size improves his value more than I expected. 2) Bellinger is worth 2 mid level prospects. I don't know why you want him in this deal, but I just looked at his numbers for the first time in over a month and realize just how far he has fallen. 3) Ian Happ is worth more than Chas. While I still maintain that he is the more proven player and worth very slightly more on the field, the amount of his extension (3 yrs $61M) makes a huge difference that I did not account for. So I rescind my previous analysis and apologize for laughing. However, I don't think this deal makes any sense for the Astros. At best it is a lateral move and why make a trade that does not fill holes or make you better?
Ha no - but close enough, over July 4th weekend. Were discussing smokers when I snuck the question in.
I am sure it would be the same that they said last year and earlier this year - that the pitching staff wants Maldonado to catch them, and even if individual pitchers will not comment on it to the media, in private they make their preferences well known. Maybe that will change as the season progresses, but I suspect that it will require Maldonado to retire or be on the DL for Diaz to become the guy behind the plate.
Julks is the perfect sell high candidate. His value will never be higher. He strikes out too much for a guy with not a lot of power, doesn't walk and can't play defense. Trade him before his BABIP comes back down from .354.
It isn't that simple though. The pitching staff wants Martin Maldonado behind the plate when they pitch. My guess is that Diaz is the Astros starting catcher next year based on what I was told, but it will require Maldonado not being an option behind the plate.
I think the Astros would say no to paying Happ 21 million a year the next two seasons unless they are confident that they can move him later. The Astros are going to be moving some outfielders over the next 9 months. If Gilbert doesn't get injured, he is going to be given every chance to pry away the starting centerfield job. They like Gilbert enough to discuss long term contract money with him. I think it is fair to say that one of McCormick or Meyers will be gone..... Tucker will remain, and who knows what happens with Julks. I also think part of it will depend on whether Dusty Baker walks away - he can manage as long as he wants.
It would fill holes in the sense that Happ is a significant upgrade over Julks/Meyers offensively, so they’d be improving their OF and offense overall. They would also be replacing two RH hitters with two LH hitters, creating more balance in their lineup. Finally, both Bellinger (who can play 1B) and Happ (who can play 2B and 1B/3B in an emergency) are more versatile, adding depth and flexibility to the roster.
Depending on how the next 90 days plays out I wouldn’t be all that disappointed with a 2024 opening day OF of Tucker/Gilbert/Barber with one of Julks, Leon, or Corona as the bench OF. Would be inexpensive, with a high offensive ceiling and excellent defensive profile. Getting good trade value for Meyers/McCormick would be bonus.
Let's assume that Ian Happ is better than Chas McCormick going forward. For their respective careers, they both have the same OPS+. McCormick can play centerfield better than Happ can.... but Happ can hit lefties... The biggest difference is that Happ will cost about 50 million dollars more than McCormick over the next 3 years. That is between what Montero and Abreu cost you over three seasons. Would you rather have the money to sign an elite reliever to a multi year deal? Sign an aging ace for a season or two? It really comes down to the difference in money to me. The exception is if the Astros think they can flip Happ later for a reliever or position of need.
Some ideas for capturing value from Meyers: Meyers for Giolito and Graveman, with Chicago including some money Meyers for Victor Robles, Hunter Harvey, and Jeimer Candelario Meyers for Tommy Pham, Brooks Raley, and David Robertson
Yes - I think we will see them deal some of their depth in the outfield for relievers under team control. This Winter the Astros have: Neris, Stanek and Maton as free agents..... they don't know what Montero will be, but he will cost them 14 million.... and Pressly will cost them 14 million. There is no way that the Astros sign other relievers to large sums when they already are paying two of them nearly 30 million is 2024. So that leaves internal promotions or trades for guys under team control. I don't see a lot of internal promotion candidates - so that leaves trades.
The Astros would do Meyers for Giolito and Graveman in a second. They would address two large needs for this year and have Graveman under contract for 2024 at a reasonable cost. The one concern would be how much Graveman is exceeding his FIP. His FIP is a nasty 4.80 this season
Are you saying Meyers straight up for Giolito and Graveman or including him in a package for those two? If it's just Meyers there's no way CWS would do this and in fact they'd hang up the phone laughing. Giolito alone will be one of the top starting pitchers available at the deadline and there's going to be numerous teams asking about him and able to offer more than just Meyers. Graveman isn't a rental (signed for next yr as well).
