The issue with Tucker is that, IMO, he has no interest in an extension. He is betting on himself and happy to go to FA because if something happens to him he has already made enough money to be set for life. I would offer him 10yr / $300 and then trade him before 2025 or at deadline 2024 if he doesn't take it. How many of the current OF prospects perform between now and then is very important. I think Pena signs a Bregman-like 6 yr / $100M deal this offseason, buying out 2 FA years. Because of this, Gilbert is off the table, for me. I also keep Clifford as I can see him sharing 1B w/ Abreu in 2025 and winning the job outright after. I also hope that Barber makes it into MLB and settles in at LF. I expect both Altuve (shorter/hometown discount) and Bregman to resign. This is mostly because of the lack of potential impact prospects at those positions and RH bats in the system. I also think both want to stay more than they want to make $300M but Bregman's deal will still be richest in team history ( thinking 6-7 yrs/ $180-200M). Alex remains starting 3B for several more years, but Altuve moves more to a DH/bench role by 2026. As for current top prospects, I see most of them traded away or not making an impact. That's unfortunately what happens to prospects. 2026 C: Diaz and ?(defense first veteran) 1B: Clifford 2B: Dubon/Altuve 3B: Bregman SS: Pena LF: Barber/Alvarez CF: McCormick RF: Gilbert DH: Alvarez/Altuve. Bench: Could be 2 of many current prospects who continue to develop and aren't traded. At this point my best guess is Loperfido and Kessinger (who I think will have a long Jose Vizcaino type career) Gomez and Baez are serious threats to take away Chas' spot on the roster and may win a starting job if not traded. Melton, Leon, K.Lee, J.Perez, Corona, and Hamilton (among others) are traded. Julks, Dirden, and Wagner have been up and down multiple times over the previous couple of years. By now Julks is out of options so has moved on. Many others like Whitcomb, Cerny and Daniels couldn't develop enough to make the bigs, and are likely hanging on as AAA players for other organizations. High K rate is the biggest culprit. Pitching is much harder but I'll look at that in a different post as I get time.
This is the impasse the fandom is at. Either the way Dusty handles things is completely illogical and he is a total moron. Or you take it on faith that there is some reasoning for Dusty to be doing things the way he is and while uncomfortable for the fandom, Dusty is not an idiot. It’s two sides of the same coin, yet such an increasing number of people on the boards fall in the former camp. Nook has mentioned several times that Dusty does experiment and is proven both right and wrong, but seemingly he only gets criticism never credit. I think Dusty’s been wrong on several things this season, but for the club to be where it is with as many injuries and underperformance streaks…. It’s a pretty solid job managing.
Astros get- Snell and Hader (both in walk years) Padres get- Meyers, Lee and Leon. Padres have 3rd best run differential innNO but are tied for 11th right now in actual record and 6 games back behind/tied with 5 teams between then and the playoffs. If they have a shitty 2 weeks they could be even more buried. this solves all the Astros problems that aren’t self inflicted and immediately fixable (like playing time) or can’t easily be filled by guys being healthy and their old selves (Javier, Yordan, Altuve) SD is terrible at catcher and mediocre at CF.
It is depressing that the Astros aren't sold that Diaz is already the best catcher on team by default.
I am excited about Diaz's future and present. I am also realistic to know that unless he gets injured enough that he CAN'T play, Maldy will continue to get 75% of the starts the rest of this year. How he does in those will determine how much, if any, he plays in the postseason. This team is 2 games out of the ALW lead, and #2 seed for the AL playoffs despite everything (which has been examined ad nauseum). If the season ended now, they would be the #2 WC vs Baltimore. This team can win with (despite?) Maldy and will likely need to. So much still has not played out (trade deadline, rest of year performance and health) but I can see 3 possibilities: 1) Maldy gets the 2022 Dubon treatment- he plays most regular season games but is then benched in The playoffs. 2) Yordan is made the everyday LF in the playoffs and Maldy and Diaz( DH) both start nearly everyday in the playoffs. 3) Diaz is sat many playoff games. This would most likely be due to plate discipline not getting better the next 3 months and the high quality pitching in the playoffs (or at least that's how they would spin it)
If S.D. comes to the conclusion that they're going to trade Snell and Hader they'll be able to get much more then Meyers, Lee + Leon.
Manager's shouldn't have much of an affect on a game based on in-game/lineup decisions as they should be canceling out the other manager. Maybe Dusty is a great manager in the clubhouse. That is difficult to measure. France, Blanco, and Bielak have an ERA of 3.42 across 25 starts while pitching a lot to Diaz. That is likely not in-game managing, and is likely mostly luck. That luck probably has much more to do with the Astros record than Dusty does regarding lineup decisions.
I do this deal. Unfortunately I think it gets outbid. I am hopeful but I think some teams are going to offer crazy deals. The Orioles, for instance, need pitching, are desperate for playoff success, and are loaded with top 100 prospects that will be likely more attractive. I think that the Astros best chance is to make a big, over spending type, offer before teams are focusing on trade deadline and while their is still lots if player supply available. The type of offer the Padres accept out of hand without giving other teams time to hid and before the Astros rescind it. Based on the offer above, I offer Melton, Lee, Leon, Joe Perez, and Colton Gordon. (I think Meyers is needed this year as Chas' backup until/unless another OF who can play CF is traded for). Once teams like Baltimore really start focusing on trades after the draft it will be nearly impossible to get the 1st choice of players. If Snell and Hader improve the team enough to win a WS then the cost is worth it. And the top position and pitching prospects are not included in the deal.
Maldy is done. Better suited as a coach. Diaz is the future. If it's a safe bet you would make Diaz off limits to any trade. The Astros haven't had a power bat C since Ivan Rodriguez
Padres won’t trade now because they are a better underlying team than their record by far and will want 3 more weeks of data to determine if buyers or sellers. I don’t think they would want Perez because they are pretty set there and I wouldn’t want to trade him. I would do the rest I guess. Dubon would be your back up CF if Chas got hurt. If Altuve is down in the playoffs and chas you are probably just not doing anything this year.
I think the Mets, Padres, Cardinals, Cubs, and Pirates will dictate the market this deadline. They are all essentially out of it this season, but none of them are really positioned to rebuild. So will they just put up rentals and try again next year, or do they take advantage of the sellers market and trade away difference makers with multiple years of control? Could we see JV/Scherzer hit the market along with Snell and Montgomery and Giolito? If so that’s a pretty robust ToR SP market. Do we see Soto and Goldschmidt and Alonso available? Beyond that there’s still another 4 teams who are in no man’s land: Mariners, Guardians, Angels, and Red Sox. This next 2 weeks will determine what they do and all 4 teams have some good players they could offer up. What do you do when you’re above .500 but have <20% chance of making the playoffs? Gonna be a fascinating deadline and a whirlwind 3 weeks after the break. I think the floodgates are gonna open after the All-Star game.
I know both Snell and Hader would be rentals, but given how many teams (playoff teams) desperately need a TOR starter and a closer in my opinion I still don't think that would be enough.
We don't need Belli. I don't think he's a significant upgrade over McCormick and he's expensive. Also brings a weed-smoking vibe to the clubhouse, which is the opposite of what we want. We want fierce warriors.
Plus, if those injuries were to happen, you could bring up one of the minor leaguers like Dirden, Leon or Corona to play CF.
I call my scouts up and ask them how we really feel about Gilbert. If the answer is still really good boss, I do that deal. If it’s non committal I probably say no.
