What is the cost looking like? How much control does Gilbert have in terms of years before FA? Doubtful Seattle would trade Gilbert to the Stros, although these 2 teams have done trades before.
Then we don't do it. It's not worth trading a sure thing at catcher for another outfielder that's only a rental. Soto is a great player but he doesn't increase our chances that much. Soto would give us 100 OPS points over Chas and 200 OPS points over Julks. Diaz gives us about the same over Maldy. Catchers that are capable of hitting double digit homeruns in 30 games don't grow on trees and we would have Diaz for the next 5-7 years.
After thinking more about it, I think it’s too much. Meyers and Diaz will post 2+ wins over the rest of the season. Soto will post roughly 4. So you gain 2 wins this season, and maybe 4 wins next season. That’s just not enough to justify giving up 2 more years of Meyers and 4 more years of Diaz, PLUS 6+ years of Gilbert and 3 of Garcia.
I'm not trading Diaz. Guys that should be available for trade are, Gilbert in a very rare trade for a guy like Cease. Something like Gilbert/Lee/Leon for Cease. I probably would trade for a cheaper rental instead and keep Gilbert. Gilbert/Lee/Leon/Arrighetti/Gordon/Decenzo/Whitcomb/Ullola/Any number of other OF'ers. This should allow Brown to fill the 3 major needs. I really dont want to trade Gilbert or Arrighetti but would for the right players.
One important topic when predicting Houston's deadline approach is analyzing their competitive window. Of course the owner and GM talk about a neverending window, but a lot of fans dismiss that and I see a lot posts talking about the window closing after Bregman/Altuve reach free agency after next season or after Tucker/Framber reach it the following year. And while I do think that 2024 has the chance to be Houston's best team ever, I don't see the window closing anytime soon. They have one of the 10 best hitters on earth under cheap control through 2028. They have a legit ToR SP under cheap control through 2028. They have a slew of proven complementary players under control for at least 3 more seasons after this one: Pena, Meyers, McCormick, Diaz, Javier, France, and Bryan Abreu all have varying projections. The Astros have zero bad contracts on the books after 2026. The only "bad" contracts they have are: Jose Abreu for $50M/2.5yr, Rafael Montero for $30M/2.5yr, and Lance McCullers for $60M/3.5yr (all rough numbers). Their farm system, while not elite, is not barren. They've already graduated 6 players this year from their "bad" farm, and 2 of those guys could easily be in the mix for ROY honors. They have a dozen guys in the upper levels alone who could end up being everyday caliber players within the next 2 years. Assuming average prospect bust rates and average free agent signings to use available payroll, and assuming Crane keeps payroll within spitting distance of the CBT threshold, this team's window is not closing without Houston making some big mistakes. For me, that makes me hope that the Astros' deadline moves focus on shoring up the fringes of the roster and preserving their best prospects/players, rather than going "all-in" on this season or just the next 2 seasons. Here is my projected WAR and salary dropping off via free agency starting this season: 2023: $31M, 1.1 fwar (Maldy, Brantley, Maton, Stanek, Neris) 2024: $58M, 8 fwar (ALtuve, Bregman, Pressly) 2025: $73M, 11.5 fwar (J Abreu, Tucker, Framber, Urquidy, Montero) 2026: $47M, 5.5 fwar (Dubon, McCormick, McCullers, Garcia, B Abreu) 2027: $44M, 7.5 fwar (Pena, Meyers, Javier)
One important topic when predicting Houston's deadline approach is analyzing their competitive window. Of course the owner and GM talk about a neverending window, but a lot of fans dismiss that and I see a lot posts talking about the window closing after Bregman/Altuve reach free agency after next season or after Tucker/Framber reach it the following year. And while I do think that 2024 has the chance to be Houston's best team ever, I don't see the window closing anytime soon. They have one of the 10 best hitters on earth under cheap control through 2028. They have a legit ToR SP under cheap control through 2028. They have a slew of proven complementary players under control for at least 3 more seasons after this one: Pena, Meyers, McCormick, Diaz, Javier, France, and Bryan Abreu all have varying projections. The Astros have zero bad contracts on the books after 2026. The only "bad" contracts they have are: Jose Abreu for $50M/2.5yr, Rafael Montero for $30M/2.5yr, and Lance McCullers for $60M/3.5yr (all rough numbers). Their farm system, while not elite, is not barren. They've already graduated 6 players this year from their "bad" farm, and 2 of those guys could easily be in the mix for ROY honors. They have a dozen guys in the upper levels alone who could end up being everyday caliber players within the next 2 years. Assuming average prospect bust rates and average free agent signings to use available payroll, and assuming Crane keeps payroll within spitting distance of the CBT threshold, this team's window is not closing without Houston making some big mistakes. For me, that makes me hope that the Astros' deadline moves focus on shoring up the fringes of the roster and preserving their best prospects/players, rather than going "all-in" on this season or just the next 2 seasons.
We don't have the pitching to win now so trading Diaz and Gilbert for soto would be a waste. I just don't see us going through the post season relying on Blanco, Bielak, France etc.
Yeah- that’s why I said I’d have to have JV of someone like that coming back to so that deal (I still wouldn’t).
Nerris is a team option that I’d be super surprised if it wasn’t picked up, right? this contending window will go as far as our ability to develop a MOR starter more or less yearly and a TOR starter more or less once every 5 years or so. I define TOR as a guy in the top 15 or 20 SP in the league (AL) and a MOR guy as top 50 in the AL. Framber- TOR Javier- TOR (if not broken) Brown- TBD- looks promising LMJ- when healthy his first 6 years yes MOR- Urquidy, Garcia, Pending- France- looking more and more likely he’s at least a legit starter and maybe MOR guy. Bielak and Blanco are perfect guys to have at Sugar land and you should always try to have 3 or 4 for spot starts lasting up to maybe a month. Any more than that and you are probably in trouble. The pipeline looks not awesome right now on that score but who knows, Brown was, I think, the only top 100 prospect (other than LMJ who doesn’t count really on his second contract).
Neris will be on a player option when he hits 40 appearances. Right now he has 38 appearances. He will probably require a raise and another 2 year deal to keep.
I’m sorry but why are we wanting to trade Diaz? We have our Maldy replacement - you don’t get that lucky with this position especially one that can hit.
Can someone share whats special about these in our system, please. Or direct me where to read about em? Arighetti is a pitcher. Whats awesome about him and if he is not traded when to look for him in the majors? Same for Gilbert (Tennesse lefthanded batter? Plays outfield, correct?) Melton? Whitcomb, Decenzo, Leon, Corona and Ullel. I am far from knowledgeable of these players and want to know more about em. Thank you very much.
Gilbert has excellent bat to ball skills, a big arm, in all likelihood will play a very good CF and hits the **** out of the ball. It’s unknown if his launch angle will improve and he turns into a 30 HR guy or hits 15. Pretty athletic and can run. My thought is possibly his upside is a slightly poor man’s Jim Edmonds. His floor, imo is going to be Chas as a slightly above average offensive player that’s a good defender. That’s a valuable dude if he isn’t making big money. I’m going to pencil him in for about 20 WAR if he plays CF the entire time he’s under club control with 2 All Star appearances. No idea on the other guys.
When When would we plan on Drew Gilbert to arrive in the big leagues? Mid to end of 2024? And thank you Wlaw!
I’d call it July 1, 2024. That would put us at 6.5 years of club control and past super 2. We don’t have super pressing needs in the OF so no need to have him up at the beginning of the year. I’d like to see us break camp with Tucker playing every day, Chas every day in CF and meyers and Yordan more or less playing 50/50 (with Yordan obviously at DH when he’s not in the field. Then- when Gilbert is ready Meyers is traded for something good and interesting at the deadline and Gilbert starts playing 80/20, shifting Yordan to DH 3/4, and Gilbert playing behind Chas and Tucker as a backup or occasional off day for those guys when Yordan plays the field. Move on from Julks. If he’s truly ready to start in 2024 in April you trade Jake in the off season.
Arrighetti is a pitcher with good stuff who has broken out this year. He is now in AAA so if he looks realy good there over 20+ innings he would then be on the radard for a callup. He is not an elite prospect like Hunter Brown, but he is a good prospect with solid upside who could be anywhere between a solid 3rd SP or a MR arm. Gilbert is an elite prospect who has reached AA in his first full season. He has tools across the board and could be a star player. He is likely the only prospect HOuston has in their system that virtually all teams covet. He has been injured so that slowed his ascent a bit, but he could be ready for a late season callup if he stays healthy and starts dominating AA. Otherwise it depends on Houston's roster next season but I would expect him up between opening day and late June next season. Melton is a high upside OF in High A. He is striking out too much for now to be an elite prospect but he has a rare power/speed combo so the upside is high. He is 2 years away. Whitcomb has broken out and is in AAA. He is a SS who hits for power. He strikes out too much to be considered a future star or elite prospect but he has a big league future. Somewhere between Javier Baez and Jack Mayfield. He could be called up if needed but Kessinger and Hensley are still probably in front of him. Dezenzo is a 3B who also has reached AA. He is posting elite exit velocities which is the underlying indicator of a hitter's power. He has a very very high ceiling. For now he kind of reminds me of COlin Moran as a prospect. He will be up sometime between 2024 and 2025. Pedro Leon is the highest ceiling prospect in the system. He is hard to value/assess because his development was marred by his journey from Cuba, the pandemic, injuries, and position switches. He has a 70 grade arm and 60 grade speed and power. If he could avoid strikeouts, he would be like Mookie Betts. Instead he is probably like Jose Siri (only maybe not as good). He could get called up later this year or early next year. Kenedy Corona has broken out this season after being acquired a few years ago from the Mets (I can't remember if it was the Marisnick trade or the JD Davis trade). He also has plus tools across the board. He has been surrounded by other good OF prospects so he has flown under the radar, but he is now hitting really well in AA and looks like a real prospect. Still, a 25% AA k rate isn't usually the stuff of future stars. He will likely reach the majors next year. Ullola is a high ceiling international arm in the lower levels of Houston's system. They have half a dozen or more guys like him. Who knows which ones will become the next Javier/Framber/Garcia/Urquidy/Abreu. He is a couple years away. This thread has tons of info on HOuston's minor leaguers: https://bbs.clutchfans.net/threads/2023-astros-minor-league-thread.317872/page-95#post-14719088
Who says no: Astros get: JV and no money Mets get: Montero and Melton (or their favorite minor league OF of ours not named Gilbert. thats a net 30M a year increase in our payroll next year, a net 15M increase this year but we get out of Montero’s 2025 obligation altogether. Mets dump some salary and get a reliever reclamation project and pick up a 45 or 50 grade prospect for their troubles.
