While I agree he likely has near zero value, how is it possible for Whitley to have negative value. You can simply DFA him if you want, and he would be picked up by somebody else the second they do. The mere illusion of his potential still has value, or else we would have DFAed him already.
Maybe not this year, but I expect more teams are going to start trying to trade from surplus to improve weaknesses soon opening the market with teams being both buyers and sellers. Maybe it won't be this year, but 2-3 years once teams realize there just aren't enough pure sellers, they are going to realize they have to trade from their MLB roster to get a piece that they want to fill a hole. Oddly, I think fan speculation is way ahead of teams in this regard.
Yep. Someone (2 someones I guess) is going to have to break the seal but once that happens it will be a thing, I'm sure. Nobody likes to give up a quality player or one that's performing well for them while they are in the midst of a playoff run, but eventually they will say- hey- this hole I have in my pitching staff is more painful to me than parting with this guy over here that we really like but don''t fundamentally need/could be replicated by someone else on our team or in our system. For the Astros those guys would all be OF to fill holes on the pitching side I would think. Jake or Chas for a good SP #4 that you would be fine starting in the playoffs if we were going to do something like that. I don't know that works for anyone else in contention. Last years Astros would have been one of the few where they could trade a quality starting arm and not blink- as we saw with Garcia and Urquidy collecting mothballs for most of the post season, outside of an 18 inning game and a blowout.
I guess that you are right based on that logic that no player has negative value ( unless they have a guaranteed contract that still must be paid) But Whitley is about as close as it gets for a minor leaguer. Unless MLB grants an exception, he will be required to be waived or on the 26 man active roster next year.. . unless he's hurt. So any team that takes him on will be taking on a big roster crunch problem or simply accepting him as a throw away.
Are there any 2017 Verlander type opportunities out there? Or Cole where someone has great stuff but under achieved. We really need a 4th playoff caliber pitcher.
So long as Whitley is still in his 20s and showing ANY sign of the potential he showed in AA 5 years ago, he will have a place on some MLB roster and thus have some value. Of course his value is lower than it would be if he didn’t require 40 man protection and will be lower still next season when he’s out of options, but there are probably a dozen teams that will be in position to claim him if he is DFA and make him their 13th pitcher. Most teams’ 13th guy throws between 20 and 50 innings in a season; sacrificing those innings to Whitley in the off chance he stays healthy and figures it out would be well worth it to any number of rebuilding teams or even contending teams short on pitching depth. I will be very surprised if Whitley is DFA before July 2024 and would bet he’s on a big league 40 man roster even into 2025 even if he continues sucking and getting hurt.
I don't want to trade Julks because I think he might be valuable and I don't think he will bring back any value in a trade. Julks is the surplus OF. if Julks could bring in a SP that could make the postseason roster, I would have no issue with that. I still want the OF to be Chas/Jake/Tucker with Yordan DH and Diaz at catcher until Julks shows he's better than Jake overall for a larger sample. Removing Chas or Jake opens up hole at DH or Catcher, and leaves the Astros with only one good defensive CF. Granted one could DH Altuve, and play Dubon. However, trading Dubon makes as much sense as trading Jake or Chas. Rarely, does it seem Jake or Dubon are the trade bait. They should be viewed as the surplus as the backups based on performance. If Brantley was 100%, sure, trading an OF (i.e., Jake or Chas) make sense to me. I'm not sure why Chas is the trade bait much more than Jake in these speculative trades.
Astros and Mariners did that in 2021 in the Graveman trade. We had no room for Toro and they had a bunch of arms in the pen so they gave up Graveman before he hit free agency. Mariners only missed the wild card by 2 games in 2021.
The only issue I have with trading Dubon is that he has such value as a backup for Altuve/Pena/Bregman. Trade Dubon and one of them get hurt, whonis your starter? Trade Chas or Meyers and there is still Dubon not to mention Leon and Dirden at AAA who would likely be better than any infielder brought up for the same situation. As for Chas/Jake, Chas has separated himself a bit by continuing to raise his ceiling as a hitter. But Meyers is special in CF and has shown he can potentially be league average with the bat. Chas @ 110 OPS+ and Jake @ 100 OPS+ are about equal value.
Carrying Whitley on the roster won't be a problem next year. He will be on the IL most of the time anyway....
Trading Chas or Jake means Julks plays fulltime while it takes an injury for Dubon being traded to hurt regarding postseason starting lineup. Even then, Kessinger has better AAA stats than Leon and Dirden. if Leon and Dirden are viewed as okay replacements, they should have trade value and could be traded instead. I have less faith in them than you, but if you have faith in them as MLB players, you should have them in trade proposals instead of an actual MLB player. Edit: I think Leon may still turn into something, but think he more just a 4th OF/PR at this point if he was in the majors.
I have more hope than faith, although Leon's recent reduction in Ks and return of his run production/power has me even more hopeful. I think they are better than Julks though. I do not see the Astros playing Julks in CF and regardless, I don't see him playing more than he does now. Right or wrong, Brown has stared he wants a bat more than pitching (probably so Dusty won't play Julks as much). If either Chas or Jake are traded it will likely be for a hitter who will most likely play LF, CF, or DH. All of those reduce Julks playing time either directly or by moving someone else to LF. Also, if Yordan and Brantley are ever healthy at the same time there is much less playing time for him.
The White Sox have spoken with the Astros about Luis Robert. There are some concerns the Sox have with Robert. I am not saying Robert is for certain going to be an Astro - because the Sox are famously a tease and non-committal. Luis Robert is the type of player that Brown has pursued in the past. He is under team control for 4 more seasons, I could see the Astros give up quite a bit for him, including Gilbert and others.
