He’s one of the best rebounders in the league and can score around the rim. But I wish he could play good defense and protect the rim. Better than Bruno, but won’t solve our defense problem at the center position.
Those Brooklyn picks are pretty much off the table for me, I think they could all be lottery picks (swaps). Their cap situation is almost dire this year. So much so that any meaningful offer to Cam Johnson pretty much puts them over the 1st apron with several other roster spots to deal with. Simmon's eating up ~25.8% of their current active roster salary is crippling.
Brook Lopez and Jordan Clarkson are the only ones that intrigue me the most. They can be good role players for the Rockets and teach the young kids how to play. Seth Curry is another player that can come in and make the team better too. I'm not that excited about the rest of free agent players.
Re: Harden and FVV “media reports”. It makes sense their agents would put Rockets interest out there since there is a clear need and cap space and they probably want to get max from their current teams. Whereas the others signaling interest through Feigen tells them not to agree to any deal until after talking to Rockets because they may be able to get overpaid with the excess rockets cap space.
This pool of free agents (WARNING: bad metaphor approaching) is rather shallow. Maybe there is a trade that can get us (WARNING: yet another) to the deep end, but I've learned not to waste time on the "who-says-no" scenarios).
It is a lot of money. Unfortunately, that is market rate for what he provides. And the cap will be going up, We have some cost-controlled players right now, so we need to spend on someone. This contract will be off the books when it's time to pay Amen, so it's basically a placeholder. He plays a position of need for this team. Hunting for bargains is fine when you are a contender, but when you are coming off 20 win seasons, you aren't going to be all that attractive. The lower cost guys are going to be signing with contenders for the MLE. We are going to have to be aggressive, and this is a move that can benefit us on multiple levels. We can't just sit back and allow the Nets to sign him to a figure that keeps them under the tax. We need to make it hurt for them. He may end up choosing them at a lesser figure, but I would force him to make that choice. If you were to offer him $20m and he turned it down, what would be your back-up plan for that money?
We can't front load a contract for Reeves as you're suggesting. Since he's an Arenas Provision FA, there's a different set of rules which aren't straight forward. The Laker's don't have full Bird rights on him, so the most that they can outright offer him is a 4yr/$50.8M contract. Reeves can make almost double that by signing an offer sheet with another team. The Lakers would have rights to match. Teams other than the Lakers are not allowed to offer Reeves more than the non-taxpayer MLE in the first two seasons of a contract (with a 5% increase in year 2). Years 3 and 4 have no restrictions. That means that the most any team other than the Lakers can offer is this: 2023 $11,368.000 (non-tax payer MLE) 2024 $11,946,400 (5% increase over 2023 salary). 2025 $36,850,000 ( League Max for his experience level) 2026 $38, 508,000 ( League Max for his experience level) Total value : $98.67M That's the deal that the Lakers would have to match. Year 3 & 4 would hurt. The other interesting thing about the Arenas Provision is that if a team other than the Lakers end up signing Reeves to the above deal, for that team it hits their cap at $24.7M per year ( total value spread out evenly over the years of the deal. 4 year max length of contract). It also means that in order for a team to be able to make this max offer to Reeves, they would need $24.7M in cap space this year. So, it's pretty much assured that Reeves will be making $11.37M next season no matter where he ends up. He can make a whole lot more money by signing an offer sheet rather than directly signing with the Lakers. First two years of the deal would be no problem for the Lakers. It's year 3 and 4 where he'd be making $36.9 and $38.5M where the Lakers would feel it. For any other team, it's $24.7M for each of the next 4 years. He obviously could sign for somewhere above the Lakers 4yr/50.8M deal and below the 4yr/98.67M max deal but it's unlikely. If a team is going to give him an offer sheet then they have to make it painful enough that the Laker's wouldn't match - otherwise there's no point in extending the offer as you know it will be matched. If you want to have a chance you almost have to offer the max since the Laker's wouldn't really feel it until years 3 and 4. Who knows, they could be in rebuild by then and it wouldn't matter.
This Brook Lopez has played as a starter in almost every game he has participated in since he was age 27 I don't think he is ready to start slumming with the Rockets
@aelliott great insight. From your analysis it’s fair to conclude that the Lakers will match and worry about the price tag on those out years later. So it doesn’t sound like Reaves is worth an offer sheet and the time it would freeze us out of negotiating with other free agents. Do you think we’d have a better shot at Cam Johnson? Do you think Brooklyn would match something like $28 mil per?
Next years free agent class is too good, and this year's is too bad, we need to punt. Brown, Siakim, OG, Porzingas, Murray...all on the market next year and all way more attractive than anything in this class outside Harden. We still don't know if there are any true franchise level guys on the roster, and its foolish to lock in long term deals to compliment guys who are not long term pieces. This and next offseason are literally the only two windows we will have to play the cap space game. Even with punting, you can get the same impact to the team by taking on overpaid expiring contracts (CP3, KL7) without killing your flexibility for next offseason like if sign guys like FVV. For PG - Obviously Harden if you can get him on a non max, non 4 year. - Or Take on Paul, Conley or Lowry for a small asset into cap space. - I am completely out on FVV, for what he will cost. They can start in the short term, teach these guys to play, mentor Amen, run the offense. For C We desperately need the defensive anchor, off the ball, rebounding big, in the starting lineup. Sengun just isn't viable there. - Lopez is a nice short term option, I'd give him a big 2 year deal, 2nd year Ngt. - Mason Plumlee might be another option. - TBD on a longer term solution. - If we punt, we can look to Porzingas or Siakim with cap space next offseason, IE real legit impact players. For the Wing I don't really get the Brooks love, but whatever, depending on what the price tag is. - CamJ is interesting, but I think you would have to offer 30m to pry him away, and is that worth taking yourself out of next years free agency class? - Same as above with Reeves, and Lakers almost certainly match. - Not many notable short term guys we could take on, perhaps a guy like Tobias Harris, or someone on the Clippers. - If we punt, we can look to Brown, Murray or OG with cap space next offseason, IE real legit impact players.
I have no idea if the Lakers would match or not.It depends on where they think they'll be in 3 years. The general rule of thumb with the new CBA is that it's going to be difficult to have more than two max guys on the roster. If, in 3 years, if the Lakers have both Reeves and AD as max guys, that doesn't bode well for them. But, like I said, they may be thinking that they make 2 runs while Lebron is around ( assuming he sticks around and resigns after next season) and then rebuild. The Nets are a different situation since Arenas rules don't apply there. As others have said, in order to get them to not match, you'd have to offer enough so that his salary plus the salary of anyone else they are going to add this summer pushes them into luxury tax payments. Their owner has very deep pockets so he can certainly afford it. It would come down to how he felt about paying a big tax bill for a non-contending team.
Am I the only person who wants Draymond? Draymond - Overpay 2/$65m or team friendly 3/$89m. Austin Reeves 3/$20m Poeltl - 3/$85m I think that puts us close to cap room to sign new FRPs. SALARY CAP geeks please confirm!
This new CBA is kinda doubling down on what the previous CBA caused in terms of spending - it's caused a case of haves and have nots. Big money and minimum salaries with the crunch to avoid the 2nd apron. Yeah, the Rockets have all this cap space to spend and generally a guy like Cam Johnson should be a good player to pay a .... but once the dust settles, there's gonna be some similarly talented players being paid a fraction of what we have talked about offering Cam because teams will have only minimum contracts to hand out. Some teams will lose exceptions further limiting the $$$ pool. TLDNR - some teams are going to get bargain contracts because of the new CBA limits while the top players continue to make bigger and bigger $$$. The other side effect has been those teams trying to dump salary have pretty much had a fire sale - Look at Washington dumping Beal for a poo platter of second-round picks in 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, and 2030 and pick swaps in 2024, 2026, 2028, and 2030, then dumping Porzingis for literally nothing.
If you are serious about taking that leap on Reeves or Cam Johnson then you most likely have to SNT and feels like the former would be easier to get than the latter.
The more I think about it the more I agree with this. We have guys like Amen waiting in the wings and I'm not hating KPJ manning the PG position at 22 while getting better. The PG FA list is slim pickings though and preferably they land a vet PG who's good enough to potentially start and run the offense. I think the big splash should be on Cam Johnson. He'd start right away with Eason backing him up and it'd be a position they don't have to worry about for the foreseeable future.
The more I think about it the more I agree with this. We have guys like Amen waiting in the wings and I'm not hating KPJ manning the PG position at 22 while getting better. The PG FA list is slim pickings though and preferably they land a vet PG who's good enough to potentially start and run the offense. I think the big splash should be on Cam Johnson. He'd start right away with Eason backing him up and it'd be a position they don't have to worry about for the foreseeable future.
