The case for giving Amen Thompson starter's minutes

I'm all for it! Start Amen, play him 30+ minutes a game, it'll help ensure the tank.....so that we keep our pick and can take another highly athletic guy that can't shoot.

If you can start a SG that shoots like an average Center and a PG that shoots like a random fan, that's a recipe for a top 4 pick!

 

Just checked it was %73 and a year before that it was 74%. That's good enough. Low release isn't necessarily a problem. Miller has a low release too but he's a monster from behind the arc. Amen's shot is so broken i'm kind of scared that it might be unfixable. Tell you what's scarier this kid probably worked on it for years and this is the best version of it.

 

You’re just looking at it in hindsight. Before entering the NBA his shot looked broken and the concern was mentioned in every scouting report.

 

If FVF does well enough, in two years he would be a decent asset to trade for positional needs at the time of Amen pops off and certifies himself as the long term pg of the team.

 

It wasn't the nicest jumper but it definitely wasn't "broken". Some reports said it was a real concern but some said that he had nice shooting touch and it'd improve in the nba which it did. Amen's shot is clearly broken.

 

The biggest knock on LaMelo was shot selection...and still kind of is. The shot looked weird, but it was effective when taking quality shots. I'm sure you can find shallow analysis that just said "shooting" in general, but those who looked into it more realized it was how often he took really bad shots.

He's always been one of the top catch and shoot 3 point shooters....which incidentally is why they should have drafted Henderson. They'd have been a perfect combo.

Amen on the other hand is just flat out tragic. Give him a wide open 3 and he's as likely to airball it as he is to make the shot, which is why it's hilarious that he just got added to the worst shooting team in the league.

 

Again for some reason you’re looking at it with the benefit of hindsight. His shot was the most major concern in his game, it’s always had a hitch in it, he shot 25 and 70% in a bad league before joining the NBA.

No one knows if a shot is permanently broken, neither you or I know. They only thing that can guarantee a bad shot is a Ben Simmons type character issue.

The numbers for Amen are roughly identical to Lamelo, and there’s just as many people saying Amen can fix his form as there were for Lamelo.

Show us the report that said Lamelo has a nice shooting touch, I’d love to read the report.

 

Also FVV can want a 4 year max, but I don’t think anyone is offering him that. He’s going to accept less money than that either way.

 

1) https://www.nbamockdraft.com/lamelo-ball/

(Ball’s 3-point shooting rate doesn’t suggest that he’s an elite long-range shooter, but his shot selection wasn’t always the best at Ilwara and there’s nothing noticeably wrong with his shooting form)


2) https://www.nbadraft.net/players/lamelo-ball/

( Has decent shooting touch and should continue to improve as a spot-up marksman)

3) https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2020/4...a-draft-mock-scouting-report-highlights-video

(Ball certainly has natural touch from deep)

 

Spoiler

https://www.sportingnews.com/ca/nba...d-player-comparison/6cj28xqnj1431p8gokoaavjnh

Ball’s jump shot is broken and needs to be demolished and rebuilt from the ground up. Right now it’s a pushed, two-handed release that was likely developed from him trying to shoot from too far from the hoop when he was too young to have the strength to shoot correctly. That form has persisted and his crooked jump shot was lucky to climb up to 24% in the NBL after he started in the single digits for the first weeks of the season.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles...-report-pro-comparison-updated-hornets-roster

And though his shooting consistency needs to improve, Ball will start his rookie season with NBA range and the shot-making confidence to catch fire and score in bunches.

https://hoopsprospects.com/2020/12/14/lamelo-ball-scouting-report/

On the other hand, Ball has to achieve an extraordinary amount of improvement on the defensive end of the basketball floor and as a jump-shooter.

…

Ball also has a long way to go to be considered an efficient half-court scorer. His NBL shooting splits were far from ideal (.389/.279/.700). He displays excellent ability to create space for his shots and has a quick release on his jumpers, but he struggles due to inconsistent mechanics and poor shot selection (6.6 three-point attempts per game). In terms of PPP, he was much better when catching and shooting (69th percentile) than shooting off the bounce (34th percentile). Additionally, Ball is not an elite finisher in the half court, which is due, at least in part, to a lack of strength and modest vertical pop. Around the basket in the half-court last season, Ball ranked at the 34th percentile for PPP; he did, however, show a great deal of promise with runners and floaters, ranking at the 70th percentile.

https://hoopshype.com/lists/lamelo-ball-scouting-report-comparisons/

Ball has current holes in his game, including his shooting, defense, and physique. Tate, who guarded Ball during their overseas matchups, also shared his defensive strategy.

Eastern Conference executive No. 2, whose team picked in the lottery: “His shooting is very erratic. He doesn’t play any defense. He does a lot of dribbling, but he never can really beat a guy off the dribble to make his passing effective. In the open court, he’s a pretty good passer and has good court awareness and feel.”

Eastern Conference executive No. 3, whose team picked in the lottery: “Not a big fan. He’ll have good games and could put up numbers, but he can’t shoot. Very inconsistent mechanics. Poor shot selection and low defensive IQ and instincts, along with lack of strength and effort. With that said, he’s a very good passer and will likely be elite in that area soon. Tough to play him off the ball, though.”

NBA Scout 1: “His main weaknesses are his caliber of strength, defensive discipline on and off the ball, and shooting.”

NBA Scout 3: “He’s an elite creator for others and a high-level ball-handler, but just worried about everything else in terms of ability to score, and shooting more specifically, as well as his willingness to defend.”

Josh Boone: “Number one is going to be his shot selection, which I think will continue to get better. Number two is going to be his body physically. He needs to get stronger. He needs to continue to work in the weight room so that he can avoid injuries. The third thing is probably his defense. Obviously, his defense needs to get better, but I did see a drastic improvement. I was encouraged by the fact that he does really try on defense. It’s still something that he needs to learn the intricacies of, but it’s not that he doesn’t put the effort into it.”

Jae’Sean Tate: “We definitely didn’t want him to get going downhill with his dominant hand going right. We wanted to bait him into shooting off the dribble. I think those are two big things. On the defensive side, we were trying to just take advantage of his youth and how young he was.”

https://www.nbadraft.net/players/lamelo-ball/

Weaknesses: His overall jump shot lacks any real consistency at the moment, and just like his older brother that can likely be attributed to his highly unorthodox shooting form … His release point is low, somewhere between his chin and his chest, and he shoots a set shot with below average elevation, leading to plenty of flat shots and bad misses whether open or contested (25% from 3point range on 6 attempts per game in 2019) … His mediocre FT shooting (72%) points to him potentially becoming a reasonably efficient shooter in time, but he’s a work in progress …. Ball’s shot selection will also need to improve, as he made just enough deep shots to both keep the defense honest, as well as justify (mostly to himself) that he should at times hoist low percentage shots off the dribble from all over the court …

 

Spoiler

https://theathletic.com/2198272/202...20-final-rankings-big-board-and-player-tiers/

WEAKNESSES: The defense isn’t a sure thing, though, because Ball doesn’t quite engage at a high enough level on that end. Having never been held accountable defensively prior to this season, Ball faced an adjustment and he didn’t always meet the challenge. Sometimes he’d get caught wiping his feet while he was supposed to be tagging a roller on the back side. Sometimes, he’d hunt rebounds to start the break and ball-watch instead of staying in solid position. His overall intensity and mindset must improve on that end.

The big issue on offense is a question of his jump shot. Ball hit just 25 percent from 3 this season, although there is reason to believe he is a better shooter than that. Really, the low percentage comes down to shot selection above all. There are times that he’ll pull up with 20 seconds left on the shot clock for a contested 30-footer for no good reason. And overall, his jumper does have some mechanical work that needs done, starting with his footwork and base off the catch. However, he can hit shots coming off of screens if defenders go under on him. He’s also grown about seven inches in the last two years, which has led to an elongation of his frame and body. He’s skinnier and the trajectory on his jumper has changed. As he gets more comfortable with his frame and gets stronger, he should become a more consistent shooter, more capable of repeating his mechanics.

https://www.si.com/nba/2020/11/09/nba-draft-big-board-top-80-rankings

Ball’s his rare combination of size, ball-handling and passing chops make him arguably the draft’s most entertaining player, and one with a clear pathway to being a starting point guard. There remains a degree of skepticism in NBA circles surrounding his haphazard jump shot and ability to truly lead a team, and his unusual path to the draft has made him polarizing. But in a league dominated by gifted playmakers, it’s easy to at least understand the case here. Bottom line, Ball will have to score efficiently to lead a winning offense in ball-dominant fashion, and the types of shots he favors aren’t statistically the most conducive in that regard yet. He’ll have to gradually shift his style toward winning games and not piling up stats. Fit here matters, as a team will need to hand Ball the keys to maximize his potential, a process that will inevitably lead to some rough patches. Still, the upside is tantalizing.

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/st...draft-lottery-prospects-strengths-comps-intel

Improvement areas

•Has struggled to score efficiently throughout his career. Shot just 46% from 2-point range and 25% from 3. Shoots jumpers with unorthodox mechanics, including a two-handed release while kicking out his legs. The touch he shows on floaters and career 82% free throw percentage leaves room for optimism, but his inability to buy a basket at times this season in the half court was discouraging.

•Lacks a degree of high-end explosiveness creating offense from a standstill and beating opponents off the dribble. Doesn't have the strength to finish what he does create around the basket. Relies on a lot of tough floaters and other difficult attempts inside the arc.

•Indifferent defender for much of his career. Still reverts back to that frequently, especially off the ball. Struggles to get over screens due to his lack of strength. Has been maligned at times for his work ethic and level of focus.

https://nbadraft.theringer.com/2020/

MINUSES

•Ball is a great passer, but he can’t be classified as a great playmaker yet because of his decision-making. He jacks up poor shots early in the clock and settles far too often rather than attacking the rim.

•Poor shooting mechanics: He has no consistency with his form, other than his low release. As a solid free throw shooter with good touch on floaters, he has obvious upside. But his form—much like his brother’s—must be overhauled.

•Rarely initiates contact and avoids it around the rim.

•He doesn’t stay in his defensive stance and often keeps his hands down when closing out—or as Mark Jackson would say: “Hand down, man down.”

•Defensive discipline: He defaults to switching instead of fighting over screens and he falls out of position off-ball when chasing steals.

https://theathletic.com/1808864/202...us-sleepers-the-guys-id-be-willing-to-bet-on/

1. LaMelo Ball, PG/SG, Illawara Hawks

In an ideal world, you’d like the top-rated player on the draft board to be somebody who actually tried on defense. Alas, that option doesn’t appear to be on the table this year. The two most talented players, Ball and Anthony Edwards, both submitted staggering displays of indifference at that end. Other players you’ll read about in a minute were more solid, but don’t possess nearly the upside of these two players.

That matters because the draft is primarily about upside, especially at the top. Whiff on a top-5 pick and you’ll get another one a year later. But for the non-glamour markets, this is your team’s best (and perhaps only) chance to hitch its wagon to a star.

Ball played only 13 games in Australia this season and the results weren’t always spectacular, but he’s atop my board because he showed the ability to do things most NBA players simply can’t. He’s an amazing passer off the dribble, particularly with his right hand, and his rebounds sometimes turn into full-court TD passes that hit the receiver’s hands perfectly in stride. At 6-6, he can see over the defense too.

Ball combines that with a very solid handle. Relative to his older brother with the Pelicans, LaMelo is much looser in the hips and can change directions more easily, and that makes him a much more dangerous navigator around screens.

Ball is a poor shooter right now and in spite of that will take some adventurous long-range shots, and his skill as a finisher could also use some work. It’s possible he ends up as just a bigger Ricky Rubio – brilliant in transition, but not so much in the halfcourt.

Defensively, Ball’s half-assed efforts are a concern, but he has the tools to do the job and he anticipates plays well … too well, actually, as he just tries for steals instead of playing solid. I don’t worry overly much about the defense – he’s very young and once he can’t get away with gambling and has to try, I’m guessing he will. As an added plus, he’s a very good rebounder for his size.

All told, however, it could be a wild ride in his first couple of seasons. Between his penchant for home-run passes, the YOLO 40-foot pull-ups, and the defense, he definitely will drive his first coach insane.

Overall, you can make a case that somebody like Killian Hayes or Onyeka Okongwu will have a better career. But I think Ball has the best chance of playing in an All-Star Game of anyone in this draft. Players of his size who have plus athleticism, can handle the ball, and fire laser beams all over the court are extremely rare. You grab them when you can and then deal with the warts.

 

Hahaha thank you man. I read his post and sighed thinking I'm going to have to do a deep dive now, but I wouldn't have achieved a fraction of this in the time you did.

@invocux Do you see what I'm talking about? His shot was a major concern. That it turned out ok is awesome, but that's not what anyone was expecting. It still looks ugly even right now, and when a shot looks that weird mechanically, it's right to question whether it will succeed.

 

He should be in the 20-25 minute range sooner rather than later. I like the idea of a Lowry or Conley type who would be amenable to split minutes with the rookie instead of demanding 35 mpg.

 

His shot was a concern no doubt about that but it wasn't a major concern. It never looked unfixable to me and i sent you some scout reports were saying the similar stuff. This ugh his shot weirds me out thing isn't an argument. Brandon Miller's shot doesn't look beautiful etiher too but it's working.

 

Are you actually still denying that it was very obvious to most professionals - i.e. not me and you - that his shot mechanics were a cause for concern? That's ridiculous, there's like DOZENS of scouting reports there saying his shot is a problem and you pulled out 3 sentences only one of which says his shot can be kinda nice.

It's obvious that his shot was a major concern. I'm happy for people to decide based on these posts if what you're saying has any merit. We're done here.

 

Probably needs to work on his pull up mid range shot since teams gonna give him the Westbrook treatment.. He can still be a threat offensively , just not from 3 pt range .. He has years to work on the 3... but no excuse to be bad from other areas of the floor

 

Ultimately, I think a lot depends on free agency (and/or other moves the Rockets do prior to the season). It is simply too difficult to predict how things will go with lineups and minutes until we know what the final roster looks like.

With the current roster, I probably would *not* start him, though if he seems ahead of the curve in training camp, it might be an option. It might even be possible to do a KPJ/JG/Amen starting lineup, so KPJ wouldn't even lose his starting spot and he could still help with some PG duties (I also think he could be deadly off-ball).

People bring up sending him to the G League...but that doesn't really seem ideal IMO. I'm guessing people don't really put much thought into it because they also say lock him in a room with Ben Sullivan...and I'm not sure how that can happen if Amen is with the Vipers.

If Amen is struggling with pretty much all aspects of his game, then sure send him to the G League. But I'm optimistic that his major issues will generally be shooting and off-ball defense primarily (knowing when to gamble, staying in good technique, not relying too much on atheleticsm, etc). Not that he'll be great at much, but I assume he'll be decent by rookie standards in most other areas. In that case, IMO he will mostly improve in those areas by getting reps against NBA competition (in practice or in games), and I don't think he'd get a ton of value out of the G League.

In comparison, I've thrown out Cam as a better fit for G League, if he continues to have issues with tunnel vision. I think giving him 20-30% usage with the Vipers and forcing him to playmake could be fairly useful, and it likely won't be something he can do with the Rockets in limited minutes/touches. I don't think this is necessary (especially if he shows improvements in these areas in SL/training camp), but if anyone would benefit from G League, I think it would be Cam. I'm kinda leaning towards keeping him with the Rockets, but a small stint at the beginning wouldn't be a terrible idea (especially if there's still a huge logjam with the roster).

 

Man you are really slow it is sad. I said it was a concern but not a major concern jesus you can't even read. And i provided you the links of those reports YOU asked from me. I dropped the links YOU wanted and you never even adressed them. And you have the audacity to tell me that we are done here while you are the 68 iq here.