1. Green: he stay 2. Bari: he stay 3. Amen: he stay 4. Cam: he stay 5. KPJ: he backup green 6. Sengun: he stay 7. Eason: he stay 8. KMJ: he gone 9. Christopher: he gone 10. Garuba: he gone 11. TyTy: 21 he stay
I get it. With Tate added to the list that is 12, and the reports are the team is looking for three free agents to make the rookies earn their spots and learn the ropes. I am not familiar with Udoka's rotations, but assuming an 8 or nine man rotation.........we got assets we probably need to move for either win now players or distant draft picks. @DaDakota post is the next step in this process as we bring in two or three vets to solidify the roster.
This is a great post by @DaDakota , but frankly when i have time i will assemble my TIERS OF LOGJAM post that provoke more fulsome discussion, and this will be consigned to the dustbin of history. You may think a team that projects to win 28 games is not literally filled to the banks with felled timber of top tier talent, but of course you would be a zillion percent wrong
They have to trade some of these young guys for some vets ! Like DD said too many to develop or did O’s say that?
Tyson Jones? Yeahhh I dont know what to tell you bro, but CP3 wont be walking through those doors anytime soon. I'd say the trade deadline will be fairly active for Houston this upcoming season.
You can relax on that count, DD. Josh Christopher is NEVER going to be a star, here or anywhere else. Unless it's fashion or TikTok related. (Sorry, @Williamson, just keeping it real. )
As far as who to cut/let go, here are my simple criteria: If you've only played one year, you had to show at LEAST a little something that made you look like an NBA player. So bye-bye Nix and Days. TyTy, you're on the bubble. If you've played two years and proved you could maybe be a rotation player, but not top 7-8 on the roster? Congratulations, you're now a trade piece. Garuba, you're definitely here. Christopher has shown enough that he can help in a trade. KPJ is our best trade piece, except for the fact that no other teams want him.
Yea, it's actually pretty simple. I see the 8 man rotation as something like this: Amen Jalen 3-and-D wing Jabari Sengun KPJ Tari 3-and-D big I think you trade KJ/Tate if you can get anything. I don't think you'll get decent value for any others. I think you'll have a main 3 guard rotation and the 4th will be whoever earns minutes from TyTy/Christopher/etc. Garuba/Whitmore will have to earn backup frontcourt minutes. I would guess Nix is waived and the random vets/baby sitters from last year aren't re-signed. They may keep Boban if there's a 15th roster spot when the dust settles But, I don't see this huge glut of players that need to be moved. I see 2. Some of these young guys just have to make an effort to remain in the nba. We will have some young guys that don't play at all. Many players have gotten better (practice and offseason) without much in-game playing time. If anything, just knowing they're on the bubble may light a fire under some of these guys to improve.
I will take a stab at this one... and since DD's original post asked for cut or keep that should be easier than assigning playing time. I will also take a stab at whether I think 3rd or 4th year rookie contract options will be exercised. If a 3rd or 4th year rookie option is not exercised that player becomes an UFA next offseason. I will also add whether I think a player should be traded/will be traded in the upcoming season. Note: The only players who will be "cut" are those with non-guaranteed deals otherwise you get dead cap space. Now if Daishen Nix had a guaranteed deal, I think he would test that expectation - he was that bad last year. Jalen Green: Keep and exercise his 4th year option. He is not untouchable and I would consider trading him (not this offseason) by the trade deadline if he doesn't improve dramatically. To this point in his career, he has been an inefficient chucker who plays poor defense. His talent is immense, but if he doesn't improve dramatically under Ime's coaching, let someone else pay him his second contract. A VORP of 1.5 or better would change my opinion and he gets there by increasing his eFG% to something closer to league average of 55-56%. Basically, I would see him losing his starting job by the end of this next season if he doesn't take better shots and play defense. Sengun: Keep and exercise his 4th year option. Maybe the only player on the current roster who has performed well enough (1.9 VORP last year and 65th best WAR) to say is performing at the level that supports winning basketball. I don't think he is a future MVP candidate, but I think he has a decent chance to become a top 30 player in the league. Josh Christopher: Try to trade. Do not exercise 4th year option. He is an inefficient chucker with tunnel vision. If Ime can get him focused back on playing winning defense and only taking wide open shots, I might change my opinion. Usman Garuba: Keep and exercise 4th year option. Garuba doesn't get a lot of love on this board, but his analytical profile is coming along right in line with the thought that he is a plus defender who might develop an outside shot. He doesn't take bad shots, so he isn't causing the team to lose. He hasn't had a lot of playing time due to being hurt and out of condition. If he shows up out of shape or "hurt" he will probably be traded or not have his option exercised. Daishen Nix: Probably the easiest decision. He will either be cut or traded. His 2023/24 contract is not guaranteed, so he will be filler in a trade or cut by not having his option exercised by 6/29/23 (Spotrac). He has less than one week left as a Rocket. With a VORP of -1.0 last year, cutting Nix will improve expected wins 2+ wins. Kevin Porter Jr.: Keep unless you receive a better player in a trade. If Kevin Porter Jr. is traded as part of a consolidation trade for a "better" veteran player, then I would let him go, otherwise, he is a keeper. Now, I don't think he should be the primary ball handler, but I do think he deserves 30+ minutes as a wing and back up point guard (until a better backup emerges). KPJ shoots well enough and plays decent defense to be an NBA rotation player. Porter's contract is not a burden, but it may be most valuable as a matching amount in a trade. I am not in favor of dumping KPJ. I think he has made strides in being a valuable NBA player, but the experiment with KPJ as the dominant ball handler should be over. I could see KPJ being cut if he persists in this whole Head Honcho thing. He has been given a chance to run the team and he has slowly improved, but he is way below the efficiency of guards that become all-stars. He could become the 2023/24 version of Christian Wood - a valuable player by the #'s, but a horrible TEAM player due to a mismatch between the role he wants and the role he deserves. Porter could still become a future all-star, but it will be as a wing - and he probably won't get his chance as a Rocket unless he drops the whole "my team"/"head honcho" nonsense. Improving on his maturity (like he did last year) and on his on court performance this year will be key. Jae'san Tate: Trade fodder. He doesn't match our timeline. KPJ, Tari, and now Cam need his minutes. Also wouldn't be surprised if another wing is acquired in free agency or by trade I will be disappointed if he is on the roster when pre-season camp opens. Jabari Smith Jr.: Keep and exercise 3rd year option. Jabari is a player that I hope improves dramatically next year. I could see his minutes drop dramatically if he doesn't start hitting his 3's at a much better rate (minimum 33-35%). He can still support winning basketball by rebounding and playing defense, but he cannot be the inefficient chucker he was last year. Hopefully a competent veteran point guard will be acquired and help Ime enforce some offensive discipline - letting guys like Jabari know they will get their shots if they are open. Among others, I think Jabari starting chucking up 3's out of the flow because he didn't trust that he would be fed shots if he was hot. Tari Eason: Keep and exercise 3rd year option. I think Tari has the potential to be part of a winning team. He didn't finish at the rim well so his offensive efficiency was below league average, but I think he will have a breakout year this year. He may become a starter by mid-year even if we bring in a wing by trade or free agency. TyTy Washington: Exercise 3rd year option. Depending on the veteran point guard the Rockets acquire, he might be kept another year or he might be tossed into a trade. He was bad last year. If the Rockets acquire a veteran point guard on a contract for more than 1-2 years, I think TyTy goes. His upside as a Rocket looks like 3rd point guard and G-League mainstay. Kenyon Martin Jr.: Trade fodder. I wouldn't mind keeping KMJ as he sticks to what he is good at... he doesn't throw up a lot of shots or try to do things that lead to losing basketball. Unfortunately, he is limited offensively and defensively - making him a poor fit at this time. he will be an unrestricted free agent next offseason if not extended. He has positive trade value and will probably be moved this offseason as part of a consolidation move. Cam and Amen - I shouldn't have to say that they are keepers. I wouldn't be surprised if they don't play rotation minutes in the first half of the season, not calling for that, but I am hoping that rookies have to earn their minutes going forward. Anyone else... Everyone else is on a minimum deal, so they don't need to be cut to save cap space. None of the other guys matter. If we bring in 2-3 veterans plus the 8-9 younger players who will be kept (who deserve/need minutes to improve) there are no more minutes to go around.
It doesn't have much to do with how young you are or potential. Plus it's too early as it depends on who's available as a FA. I'm guessing they want sign 2 starter quality players or at least 1 starter and 1 solid rotation player. Obviously, the desired positions are PG and PF/C. For example, if you pick up, FVV and Capela, they are starting. You gotta look at contracts. KPJ and KMJ are both on their contract years, right? Tate too, right? If they don't sign a vet PG, you keep KPJ until Amen is ready to take the reigns. No way KPJ is here past this year cause they'd have to pay him. Look at JPoole. Golden State simply dumped his 4yr contract. It makes little sense to sign CP3 other than as a vehicle to shed 2 years off their books.
Tate is signed for 2 years. The Rockets control KPJ for the next 4 years. KMJ is on his contract year and will become a free agent if not extended. I agree that they will sign or trade for 2 starting level players - which makes it pretty obvious who will be cut or traded.
They extended KPJ for 4 years? I missed that. Who would want him for 4 years? That's gonna hurt. Tate and KMJ are easy. I wish we had a scenario where we keep KMJ as I think he'll have an all-star season once or twice in his career if he can get onto the right roster, which won't be the Rockets.
KPJ is non-guaranteed the next two years and a club option after that. So they control him but it doesn't hurt the team. They can cut him
Add 3 vets A big A pg A proficient 3D or even maybe a star via trade. CUT Days Nix Trade Martin Christopher Washington Sengun/FA big/Garuba Smith/Eason 3 and D wing/Whitmore Green/Porter Vet PG/Amen
KPJ's contract is structured as a series of Team options. This next season is already guaranteed (year one of extension). Details from Spotrac... He has a base salary of $15.86 Million/year + $4.758 Million/year of unlikely to be met incentives. The contract is fairly team friendly. 2024-25: non-guaranteed, $1 million guaranteed on 7/1/23, $3 million guaranteed on Opening Night, $6 million guaranteed 5 days after 2024 trade deadline (est. 2/28/24), fully guaranteed on 6/30/24 2025-26: non-guaranteed, fully guaranteed on 6/30/24 2026-27: Club Option/non-guaranteed, fully guaranteed on 6/30/25
Green, Smith, Sengun, Eason, Thompson, and Whitmore are the foundation. They are here for next season and beyond. Everybody else I think can be had or will be actively shopped.
