Even at only one assist a game….I’d still trust Cam more than Christopher to pass the ball to an open teammate. Love the man’s game, but Christopher HATES to pass the ball.
At this point, I’m pretty confident they aren’t planning on taking Whitmore. They needed to get Harden to go that route. I hope they trade back now, but my gut says it’s Amen. My gut also thinks that will be a huge mistake, but I guess we’ll see!
Yeah, but age is just one of many factors the way shooting is just one of many factors. Not everything but huge. When a guy can't shoot, you want to see compensatory skills/abilities. When a guy is old, you want to see at the very least good shooting from the line. When a guy flunks both age and shooting? Well, he's probably trash unless he: has at least 'good' positional size is among the best athletes at his position, and has great stats against high-level competition so the stats/data is meaningful). Not only do the Thompson twins look lousy by these criteria I'm not even 100% convinced that they're transcendent athletes. How can we haven't even seen them against D1 quickness, much less NBA quickness? They're surely great. Are they super duper great? We can't know. And I too have wondered about reps v age for a while. I started to type a reply but it's such a complex question. What it really comes to is are the reps you get at 18 more valuable than those you get at 20? That's the question at the root of all of the other questions—and I'm not a neuroscientist. I also ran this question by my pro stats guy a ways back and he also had no idea, didn't know of any studies. Oh, hey, Ben Taylor of Thinking Basketball was a neuroscientist. I'll try to get in touch and ask him.
https://theathletic.com/4614044/2023/06/20/nba-draft-confidential-2023-brandon-miller-forwards/ Cam Whitmore After Miller, there’s a small drop-off to the next level of wings, but there’s a lot of talent. Villanova’s Cam Whitmore missed the start of last season after undergoing surgery for a broken thumb, and he took a while to round into form for the Wildcats, who went 17-17 under first-year coach Kyle Neptune and missed the NCAA Tournament for just the fourth time in the last 20 seasons. Nonetheless, Whitmore was the Big East Rookie of the Year who displayed explosive offensive potential. College assistant coach No. 1 (his team played Villanova): It’s crazy. He was just coming off an injury, and he was the best player on the court. Super athlete. Shot it better than I thought (he would). He’s going to be that wing, that tough (guy). Is it Dillon Brooks? He’s that guy and plays hard as hell. He tried to (power) dunk everything above the rim and chasing stuff. He was in a (Russell) Westbrook mode against us. Maybe he was like, “S***, I’ve got to make up some time and hurry up and get back and do what I got to do to get to the league.” He’s also a freaky athlete. Eastern Conference executive No. 1: He was in a bad situation at Villanova with a brand new head coach, who I don’t think knew what he was doing to get the most out of Cam. When Jay (Wright) was there, the seniors and upperclassmen get priority over the freshmen. Neptune did the same thing, and I don’t think it worked well. Whitmore is a talented kid. I think he’ll be a better pro than he was at Villanova, just because I think it’s going to be better suited for him. But I don’t have a great feel for him because of what transpired there. Whitmore struggled most of the season until Neptune finally figured out some things, and Whitmore was better toward the end of the season. At the Hoops Summit, Whitmore was not a practice-type player and didn’t look very good during the week. But once he played, he was one of the better players in the game. That’s going to have to change at the NBA level. He’s going to have to exert some effort, some ability and skill level in practice for a head coach to put him in a game. He’s not going to be guaranteed minutes like he probably was at Villanova.
Amen remains the clear choice at 4 if available. No interest in Whitmore, even before reading this post.
Why would the Rockets draft him if he is not a transcendent athlete? The answer is they wouldn’t. Everybody he has worked out for says he is one of the greatest athletes to ever enter the draft. He might not have the other qualities the Rockets would like to see, and, in that case they won’t draft him. I’m assuming you haven’t been in any of his workouts and his combine numbers were through the roof. It’s ok to not like the pick due to his inability to shoot, but don’t make up crap.
Christopher had a far higher assist rate in every league he's ever played in, not sure how you come to this conclusion.
Amen is a 6'7pg with what scouts describe as one of the most athletic players they've ever seen, why are you literally making up nonsense just to fit your agenda?
I might dispute some of the specifics here, but I think a few others have already responded, so I'll stick to the general point. And I don't necessarily disagree with the general point you're trying to make. I think there are a number of factors involved in evaluating a prospect, and the more factors that a prospect "fails," the less likely they'll succeed. All else equal, yes I'd probably weight age as one of the primary tiebreakers. Certainly more than say strength (something fairly easy to develop). I'm not sure it is the most important factor (I'm leaning towards BBIQ being that), but it would be up there. I don't now how often things are fully equal (almost never, even with identical twins?), so things are rarely so straightforward, but I agree it is pretty important. I think someone could do a fairly decent breakdown by pulling in some of the public data we have on guys (in terms of "old vs young" rookies in the same class). I'm assuming there are previous examples of this, though this class seems pretty weird in that regard. Maybe the sample size is too small to study that large of a gap within the same class. I don't know if you could make huge conclusions from doing any of that work, but it would be an interesting set of data to analyze. I could even do it...except I spend too much time looking at this stuff as it is. I think there are a ton of factors involved though, and as you said things could end up very complex depending on what question you're looking to answer. I think the general point I wanted to make is that evaluations should probably be a bit more sophisticated than "he's younger, so he's got more room for improvement." I think in general this is true, but depending on the specific scenario, that idea might not hold up. I watched a video from Rob Fodor a while back: Can't remember where he says this, but I recall him saying something like the body will always "remember" the first time it does something. This was in reference to bad habits when first learning to shoot (and apparently we were all taught the wrong way). Extreme example, but this is one of those things where I think if you had a 20-21 year old who *never* played basketball, but after a short period, let's say he was 30% from 3pt (unrealistic, but just a thought experiment). Compare him to a 18-19 year old who also shoots 30% (or possibly even better, say 33%). Let's say this younger prospect has been training with a NBA level shooting coach since he was a HS freshman (maybe his dad is a shooting coach?). This prospect has played all the AAU, U16, U18, McDonald's All-American, etc. He's *younger* than the other prospect, but who do we think has the most room for improvement (in terms of shooting at least)? That's a super extreme example, and I'm 99.9% certain you can't even find a scenario like this in reality. But the point I'm making is that age by itself shouldn't be the deciding factor in things like this. Otherwise, everyone should try hard to get GG Jackson and James Nnaji. I think teams who *did* incorrectly prioritize age (and age alone) in past NBA drafts might have regretted it later.
Givony and KOC have him “slipping” to 9. “…receiving positive feedback in some places, and struggling at times with his shooting and intensity in others.” - JG “…In recent days, sources have begun to discuss a potential fall for Whitmore in part due to poor workouts. Or maybe it’s all a smoke screen?” - KOC
It's interesting. I cannot see him falling all the way to #9. I can see a team deciding that they want to reach for Bilal Coulibaly and/or maybe someone like Anthony Black - but I cannot see him slipping past #7. While his size and wingspan are a concern, he is very explosive, very strong and isn't a bad shooter - he has all the hallmarks of being able to score well at the NBA level and he is younger than most prospects. The lack of free throw attempts, the lack of smooth evaluation of the game and his size are all valid critiques, but if he improves his handle, he can play the 2 and that removes some concerns. He is still a top 6 talent in this draft.
Cause I like him as a prospect significantly more than the thompsons and if I had to choose between them he’s the clear and preferred choice
