Brandon Miller....

daywalker02 · Jun 17, 2023

OremLK said: ↑

I kind of doubt they're very attached to Little at this point. His minutes actually went down amid a wasted season. Sharpe, for sure. Sounds like they view him as borderline untouchable so they must be extremely high on his potential.

I wouldn't be surprised to see them take Amen, if Charlotte takes Scoot, because he does fit their usual profile (tools, upside, intangibles), but I don't think Miller is necessarily a worse fit for them on paper, especially if they're keeping Dame.

Still think it's going to be Amen or Miller for us, whichever one falls to us... maybe 60/40 odds Amen/Miller.
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I still do not get how Ausar can be that far apart when the differences are miniscule IMHO.

They do some things differently.

I suspect the insiders know that Amen and Ausar are probably only 1 draft slot apart.

That slot is probably Whitmore.

OremLK · Jun 17, 2023

daywalker02 said: ↑

I still do not get how Ausar can be that far apart when the differences are miniscule IMHO.

They do some things differently.

I suspect the insiders know that Amen and Ausar are probably only 1 draft slot apart.

That slot is probably Whitmore.
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I wouldn't be that surprised to see Ausar jump Whitmore on draft day. Guess I also wouldn't be that surprised to see Whitmore jump both twins (should the rumors about us potentially taking Cam be true, which I do doubt).

zeeshan2 · Jun 19, 2023

cheke64 · Jun 19, 2023

zeeshan2 said: ↑

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Just as I was about to read the subscription popped up. Come on Zeeshan!

OremLK · Jun 19, 2023

Another Miller comp that occurred to me is Nic Batum. I really have this sneaking suspicion he's going to end up somewhere in the range of guys like this:

Nic Batum (low-end/floor)
Chandler Parsons
Harrison Barnes (median)
Danilo Gallinari
Khris Middleton (ceiling)

YOLO · Jun 19, 2023

zeeshan2 · Jun 19, 2023

cheke64 said: ↑

Just as I was about to read the subscription popped up. Come on Zeeshan!
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you can say continue reading

Enter Brandon Miller, the 6’9” 20-year-old wing that lit the net on fire at Tuscaloosa this season.

Let’s not get it twisted, Miller didn’t exactly come out of nowhere to crash the party. The Antioch, Tennessee native was a highly touted prospect heading into the year—he was a two-time Tennessee Gatorade Player of the Year and a McDonald's All-American. He was very much on the radar, however, he was divisive and mostly on the outside looking in amongst his peers as prospects most likely to find themselves on early Top 5 draft boards. While I had Miller in the Top 5 on my personal preseason board, Miller came into the year as the 15th-ranked prospect on the $DRFT IPO. The contention was not whether Miller was worthy of a top 5 ranking, but rather is he even worthy of a lottery grade?

It didn’t take long for Miller’s name to buzz behind the scenes. Miller got to work right away, reportedly dropping 33 points in a scrimmage vs TCU. Still, evaluators had questions about how he stacked up to his peers, even after a scorching hot start to the college basketball season. The main reason was Miller’s finishing at the rim, which I’ll detail in depth later in this piece, but what had made Miller one of the focal points in the early draft discourse was Miller’s shot-making from deep.

And that’s the main sell with Miller if you are of the opinion that the unanimous Second Team All-American should hear his name called second on June 22nd. With Miller, you are investing in one of the best shooting prospects in recent memory, who just so happens to also be 6’9” with the skills to also dribble, pass, and defend.

Miller shot the three-ball at ridiculous volume as a freshman. But beyond the volume, it was the hit rate, connecting on over 100 made threes while shooting 38.4% on 12.5 3PA per 100. Miller also shot over 85% from the free-throw line and got there enough per game that it matters in his eval. Those are real-deal shooter qualifiers. He’s also the only freshman prospect at a high major since 2008 to clear that bar. People may quibble with his freshman status as he is old for a freshman—he’ll be 20.58 years old on draft night. Taking Miller’s age into account and adding in sophomores to the query, the only other prospect to join him is UConn’s Jordan Hawkins, on the back of an elite prospect shooting season himself.
A lot of the online discourse for why Brandon Miller should go number two overall is due to his cleaner fit in Charlotte. I do think that sentiment is true given the shooting advantage, but fit shouldn’t be the primary reason to take him there. Miller should only go #2 overall if Charlotte feels as if he’s the second-best prospect on the board. I personally believe that he just may be, but with all that said it is easier to imagine Miller’s game complimenting not just LaMelo Ball in Charlotte or Damian Lillard in Portland, but really any litany of on-ball creators across the league. Miller is considered to be a Top 3 prospect not only because he can shoot and play with the ball in his hands, but the dude’s game is enhanced by the fact that he can synergize with any kind of roster construction. Pair him with a playmaking rim pressure guard or jumbo initiator and he can either spot up or shoot it off movement. Miller’s spot-up shooting and the gravity he provides on the floor for his teammates given his NBA range, is particularly deadly, as Miller shot 51%(!) on unguarded catch-and-shoot threes this season. If you leave him open just put the three points on the board.

Early on in the process, Miller had gotten a fair amount of comps to Jabari Smith as high-level shooting forwards. However, the quibble with Smith was always that he needed to be set up for those shots. Remember all the dialogue about how if only Jabari had guards that could get him the ball in his spots? Well, you don’t have to worry about that with Miller.

Miller has one of the slickest handles in the class and is one of my favorite ball-handling wings that I’ve scouted over the last few drafts. There aren’t many 6’9” prospects that have the ball on a string like Miller does. Skeptics feel as though Miller lacks that streetball-esque shake, the kind that Jamal Crawford had. While Miller may not have as much traditional side-to-side shake as J-Crossover, he still has plenty of wiggle that allows him to get elastic and bendy. That elasticity is what makes Miller’s movement patterns hard to predict, which in turn allows him to misdirect his defender and get them off balance to create space for clean looks.

This in-and-out step-back three is shot-making at the highest level. The way that Miller uses his body to sell the in-and-out by shifting his weight and playing high-to-low and then transitions seamlessly into the step-back with the exquisite footwork while the defender is recovering is just…chef’s kiss.

P&R Maestro
Alabama ran a very NBA-friendly style offense this season, one in which Brandon Miller was very much empowered as a ball-handler. This in turn let Miller operate a heavy dose of P&Rs – around 20% of his overall possessions per Synergy. Miller’s off-ball spacing prowess makes him a clean fit in any offense, but it’s his ability to operate as an initiator that makes him such a high-level prospect. I’m not saying that Miller is going to be Luka or Harden and you should let him dominate possessions as a heliocentric creator or anything like that. That just isn’t the way to best make use of his game. And he still has some decision-making that needs to be cleaned up and perfected, but the consistent flashes of pace, nuance, and shot creation for both him and his teammates were very enticing when projecting how he’ll be optimized as a pro.

Let’s get back to Miller’s shooting for a minute because it’s the threat of the shot that opens up his pick-and-roll operation.

Miller has deep range and a quick trigger, he’ll make teams pay against whatever P&R coverage you throw at him. Going under gives him too much space and time to even make him think.

Dime ‘Em Up
It’s time to hit on the playmaking. On the surface, the playmaking numbers won't necessarily knock your socks off, 2.1 AST to 2.2 TOs and a 12.9AST%; but play the tape and you know that Brandon Miller can pass that rock man, providing us with some of the most advanced playmaking flashes of any prospect in this class.

Let’s start with his ability to hit the roll. Miller had great chemistry with Charles Bediako and would play off his ability to get up and go get it. On this possession, Miller again shows the nuance in ball screen operation by starting the action by faking the catch and rip with a jab step set-up to make the defender commit to the drive. This subtlety takes Miller’s defender completely out of the possession and puts pressure on the big to guard two, leaving him in no man's land. Miller uses a jump pass to make the big commit to him and it results in an easy lob with perfect placement above the rim.

Uncomfortable Conversations
Ok, it's time to get real. Miller is not a flawless prospect by any means as he has one glaring weakness at the moment…the finishing. Miller struggled at the rim this season and for a guy whose shot diet was mostly rim and threes, it’s fair to say that it could be a big problem going forward.

Miller shot just 54% at the rim per Synergy this season; when you isolate his at-rim attempts to the halfcourt, that number falls to 39.3%. That is a fairly ghastly number for someone who is more than likely going in the Top 3.

A lot of the issues stem from Miller’s lack of strength. Miller is slight of frame and it doesn’t help that he reportedly came down with a bout of mono during the pre-draft process which in turn caused him to lose an additional thirteen pounds.

Too often his lack of strength would disrupt the finish before the actual attempt as he’d get bumped off his spot and lose control of the ball on his drive, or have his space altered in the air because he can’t yet win the physicality battle.

If Miller doesn’t make progress with his body, he’ll struggle to live up to the hype. But here’s the good news, he isn’t the first skinny dude to be drafted into the league. NBA teams are very good at putting plans in place for physical development. Miller is never going to look like Scoot, who appears as if he was chiseled out of ****ing marble, but that doesn’t mean that he can’t gain functional strength that will allow him to more effectively control his drives and at-rim attempts. He’s also not the only skinny high-level wing who had physicality issues in college. Paul George struggled with similar issues in the half-court at Fresno State and would frequently look like he struggled exploding off the floor because he got bumped off his spot by a physically stronger opponent. Synergy doesn’t have PG13’s sophomore at-rim finishing numbers but they do show that George connected on just 33.3% of his overall half-court attempts. By the way, I apologize for the quality of this clip. Apparently, Paul George played in the 1980s.
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zeeshan2 · Jun 19, 2023

Despite the slight frame, Miller isn’t afraid to attack the cup and seek out contact. If you give him a head of steam and a clear lane he will attempt to put you on a poster.

Miller’s finishing issues weren’t a secret made for the internet. The scout was out on him. Opponents would try to put him in uncomfortable positions, sending him left and daring him to finish. But as he got more comfortable, he got more confident, and consistent at putting pressure on the rim and finishing.

When I asked an anonymous NBA Draft prospect to give me a scout on Miller he told me: “Crazy how he improved his finishing throughout the year. We tried to make him finish going left at the beginning of the year and then he figured it out and he was doing it multiple times against us.”

In two of the tightest crunch time moments of the year with a dwindling clock against South Carolina, Miller attacked hard downhill and finished with two tough clutch buckets at the hoop.

More Than Meets the Eye
One of the more underrated aspects of scouting is looking back on pre-college tape. Sometimes a prospect may look awesome because they’re just way more physically gifted than their peers, but sometimes they show you skills that a college system may not have tapped into.

At Bama, the team opted for an analytics-friendly offense. Mid-range shots were an afterthought. But it’s still an important NBA shot if you indeed project to be a star. In a playoff setting, you can’t always get clean looks at the rim or behind the three-point line. Teams will game plan and try to force you into more inefficient spots on the floor. The best scorers in the league can make you pay by hitting enough of these looks when they’re given to them by the defense. Miller didn’t shoot a lot of these shots in college, but it’s how he bread his butter in high school.

The case for Brandon Miller isn’t a hard one to make. He’s a 6’9” dribble, pass, shoot wing that happens to be really really awesome at the shoot part. When the shot isn’t falling, he doesn’t sulk, he finds ways that he can still impact the game. And that’s what Brandon Miller does, he impacts the game, and in a variety of ways. He scores at all three levels, he rebounds, he makes plays for his teammates, and he defends. He does everything you want on a basketball court and with plenty of room to grow and expand his game at the next level.

Two-Way Impact
When you’re selecting prospects in the top three of the draft, one of the barometers the prospect should reach is the potential for two-way impact. Does this prospect have the ability to get it done on both ends of the floor? Are you ever going to be in a playoff setting and have to ask yourself: is Prospect X going to get targeted and played off the floor?

The answer to that question is a “no” for Brandon Miller.

At 6’9” Brandon Miller moves around like a guard. He’s a smooth lateral mover that can get low, flip his hips, and use his length to make you take tough shots over his outstretched arms.

It doesn’t matter whether Miller hears his name called immediately after Wembanyama, keeps Portland weird, or heads down to H-Town. Whatever city that Brandon Miller ends up in is going to land themselves an elite NBA prospect.
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rimrocker · Jun 19, 2023

Miller is like a taller, faster, stronger Ray Allen on offense and a better, smarter Battier on defense. Extreme Basketball IQ. He's learned his lesson and is now a better person than Mother Teresa ever hoped to be. Anyone with a chance would be a fool of the highest order to not draft him within the first 5 seconds. He'll end up in the Hall and go down as a Top-5 player of all time. I hope there are at least two foolish front offices and he drops to the Rockets at 4. If not, we'll have to take that broke-shot Amen, which I would hate.

Hemingway · Jun 19, 2023

rimrocker said: ↑

Miller is like a taller, faster, stronger Ray Allen on offense and a better, smarter Battier on defense. Extreme Basketball IQ. He's learned his lesson and is now a better person than Mother Teresa ever hoped to be. Anyone with a chance would be a fool of the highest order to not draft him within the first 5 seconds. He'll end up in the Hall and go down as a Top-5 player of all time. I hope there are at least two foolish front offices and he drops to the Rockets at 4. If not, we'll have to take that broke-shot Amen, which I would hate.
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LOL.

OremLK · Jun 19, 2023

rimrocker said: ↑

Miller is like a taller, faster, stronger Ray Allen on offense and a better, smarter Battier on defense. Extreme Basketball IQ. He's learned his lesson and is now a better person than Mother Teresa ever hoped to be. Anyone with a chance would be a fool of the highest order to not draft him within the first 5 seconds. He'll end up in the Hall and go down as a Top-5 player of all time. I hope there are at least two foolish front offices and he drops to the Rockets at 4. If not, we'll have to take that broke-shot Amen, which I would hate.
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That is a wild take my dude

If we end up with him I'll be hoping that limb you're out on is strong and sturdy, but I'm not going to hold my breath.

DrNuegebauer · Jun 19, 2023

If Miller falls to 4, and we take him, what could go wrong?

Drafting a sweet shooting forward (who is slightly less athletic than ideal) has always worked out in the past. I mean, it's not like his shot would suddenly vanish, right???? [...]

Dredd · Jun 19, 2023

DrNuegebauer said: ↑

If Miller falls to 4, and we take him, what could go wrong?

Drafting a sweet shooting forward (who is slightly less athletic than ideal) has always worked out in the past. I mean, it's not like his shot would suddenly vanish, right???? [...]
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Jabari Smith says hello.

CHAMPBOY · Jun 19, 2023

Dredd said: ↑

Jabari Smith says hello.
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The difference between him and Jabari is handles and elite free throw shooting…..Jabari has no handles and Brandon has average handles. Many of his games when his shot was off, in the 4th quarter he would just drive the ball to the basket….miss the shot but was always…10-11 or 9-9…he is different from Jabari

CHAMPBOY · Jun 19, 2023

I want Amen because there are 3 potential SUPERSTARS….WEMBY, SCOTT AND MAYBE AMEN if he can shoot average from outside. Brandon is a #2 star, Armus is a elite ROLE PLAYER, elite defender that you need on a championship team. Cam? Undersized, not the best player on a sorry Villanova team and no defense prospect. Black is a good prospect but does not have IT. I think we pick AMEN OR BRANDON and call it a day

DrNuegebauer · Jun 19, 2023

Dredd said: ↑

Jabari Smith says hello.
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Imanimal · Jun 19, 2023

CHAMPBOY said: ↑

I want Amen because there are 3 potential SUPERSTARS….WEMBY, SCOTT AND MAYBE AMEN if he can shoot average from outside. Brandon is a #2 star, Armus is a elite ROLE PLAYER, elite defender that you need on a championship team. Cam? Undersized, not the best player on a sorry Villanova team and no defense prospect. Black is a good prospect but does not have IT. I think we pick AMEN OR BRANDON and call it a day
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To counter your Cam negativity: Amen Thompson - old guy in glorified HS league with flaw in his ugly shot that caused him to shoot 22% threes, 55% frees, and 55% layups, compared to 34% threes, 76% frees, and 80% layups for a guy who played in one of the toughest conferences in college basketball at the age of 18!!!!!!!

RC Cola · Jun 19, 2023

Imanimal said: ↑

To counter your Cam negativity: Amen Thompson - old guy in glorified HS league with flaw in his ugly shot that caused him to shoot 22% threes, 55% frees, and 55% layups, compared to 34% threes, 76% frees, and 80% layups for a guy who played in one of the toughest conferences in college basketball at the age of 18!!!!!!!
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Where are you getting these numbers for Amen? Actually for Cam too. I'm legit curious.

OremLK · Jun 19, 2023

None of those numbers are correct...

CHAMPBOY · Jun 19, 2023

Imanimal said: ↑

To counter your Cam negativity: Amen Thompson - old guy in glorified HS league with flaw in his ugly shot that caused him to shoot 22% threes, 55% frees, and 55% layups, compared to 34% threes, 76% frees, and 80% layups for a guy who played in one of the toughest conferences in college basketball at the age of 18!!!!!!!
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There were two guys they played against on OTE will be on scholarship and going to Stanford and one of the players is a top 20 prospect for 2024. When Amen played in tournament against professional players he was excellent. These players could not match his athleticism and his on ball defense. Cam!? He Is 6’6 trying to play SF? Not known to be a defender? Will never be a playmaker…because he has no vision, feel for the game or passer. He is a BLACKHOLE. He never pass the ball. He is a average shooter, but he is mainly a BULLY BALL GUY. We need a playmaker not a blackhole on offense

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