For better or worse, this is Dusty's team. He and Maldy will likely be gone next year but we are stuck until the season and hopefully post season is over 2024 is another year.
I can not emphasize this enough. Crane had gone the way of the Jerry Jones, and ither meddling owners who want to be associated with being "key" to the success. The Click stuff was downright embarrassing. Astro fans wanted to gobble up all that BS about Click to justify the move. The signings he made before he installed a GM is just fooking stupid. He soooo desperately wanted to imprint himself onto the team.
I still don't understand why Baker didn't ride off into the sunset after winning the WS. Now he will just be remembered as Dustying up a season.
The 2023 Astros are the 1995 Rockets. The 1995 Rockets were defending champions like the Astros are this year. Rudy T was coaching a team of complacent players stumbling during the regular season. Had this BBS existed in 1995, we would have been calling for Rudy T to be fired. Never underestimate the heart of a champion for the 1995 Rockets and 2023 Astros.
Blown lead after blown lead. We’re moving closer to losing the same amount of series as we did all last season.
To me the biggest failure Dusty has had this year is managing the pitching. Maybe getting 2 high quality RP instead of a SP can fix this? It just feels like a playoff calibur SP is going to cost the moon. But France has actually been acceptable as a 4th SP as long as he isn't exposed too much. K/BB: 1st - 2nd - 3rd time through order Framber: 7.40 - 5.14 - 2.56 Javier: 4.13 - 4.29 - 3.25 Brown: 5.14 - 3.78 - 1.20 France: 3.75 - 2.20 - 1.83 Blanco: 1.60 - 1.25 - xx Bielak: 4.00 - 3.00 - 0.43 As you can see, every pitcher is worse the 3rd time than they are the 1st. Javier is actually better the 2nd time but everyone else loses effectiveness, by this metric, each time they face a hitter an additional time. OB% Framber: .214 - .274 - .360 Javier: .270 - .262 - .265 Brown: .285 - .302 - .362 France: .250 - .306 - .327 Blanco: .333 - .333 - .421 Bielak: .333 - .329 - .478 SLG: Framber: .282 - .316 - .422 Javier: .410 - .348 - .403 Brown: .306 - .362 - .417 France: .400 - .418 - .419 Blanco: .318 - .348 - .895 Bielak: .545 - .470 - .667 OPS Framber: .496 - .590 - .782 Javier: .680 - .610 - .668 Brown - .591 - .668 - .779 France: .650 - .724 - .746 Blanco: .651 - .681 - 1.316 Bielak: .878 - .779 - 1.145 As you can see, aside from Javier, every pitcher is much less effective the more times they see a hitter. France's drop is very gradual, but he starts from a lesser level so does not need to lose much to be unpitchable. Blanco looks to maintain better but falls off a cliff. Maybe this is due to him still getting stretched out to start? Framber is interesting. At first glance, he should not pitch a 3rd time through which is absolutely true, but its worth noting that he allows so few base runners that he is usually much further along in the game, frequently into the 6th inning by the time he faces a hitter for the 3rd time. My point here is clear: Dusty needs to take starters out of the game sooner. He actually pulls Javier before 100 pitches constantly, but let's Framber throw over 100 every start. This should be reversed. Framber pitches 51-75: 5.00 K/ BB, .587 OPS 76-100: 1.67 K/BB, .835 OPS Javier: 51-75: 3.00 K/BB, .612 OPS 76-100: 5.00 K/BB, .638 OPS As for Brown, France, Blanco, and Bielak: anytime the top of the order comes to bat a 3rd time ( and really Framber too) a reliever should be warm and ready to come in the 1st sign of trouble. Blanco should be not even allowed to face them. This will require more quality RP which is why I started this post asking for them.
Framber's career trends do not suggest he has noticeable issues 3rd time through or high pitch count. This season is too small a sample to suddenly start pegging him as an 80-90 pitch starter. Crazy high BABIP in those situations this season, and he has a career .477 OPS after 100 pitches. As for Javier, they clearly are trying to workload manage, which is smart. He's never thrown a full season and those extra pitches add up. France,Bielak and Blanco, absolutely. He has repeatedly asked them to throw more after they get into the 75-80 pitch range, and it usually costs us. This has easily been his biggest f**k up on the pitching side.
Your points on Framber and Javier are welcome. Thanks. And I guess no team can cover 4 innings every game with the bullpen. It's just a pretty obvious fix, especially for the bottom of the rotation. I wonder if separating Framber and Javier would help? So the 2 innings eaters aren't together.
