I would take bully ball over a guy that flat out can’t shoot. You posted a video in another column of Amen against a foreign team where he had decent stats. In that video of all his shots he missed 9 of 12 point blank layups. So not only does he shoot 22% threes, 55% frees throws, but also has no touch whatsoever on layups. He’s a classic version of the the slam dunk contest in recent years where some 12th men are representing their teams who we’ve never heard of because all they can do is impressively leap and dunk. Curry can’t do any of that nor can Harden for the most part and neither can Jokic but they all won MVPs. Be smart Houston and take this very gifted 18 year old.
According to some here Amen Thompson can become a much better player and may even magically develop a shot but Whitmore will forever stay the same player. Got it.
Developing into a better shooter isn't "magic", the list of guys who've done it is a mile long. It's a teachable, repeatable skill. Players rarely evolve into dramatically better playmakers. Usually either you have court vision or you don't. It's one of those innate basketball IQ/instinctual things, not just a mechanical skill you can teach. Whitmore can and will improve in some areas, he'll probably even get a little bit better as a playmaker, but he doesn't have primary ballhandler potential and that's a limiting factor to his ultimate upside. Most top 5 in the league, MVP-contending superstar wings are at least decent playmakers, even the ones you think of as being highly focused on scoring. I doubt Cam will ever clear 4 assists per game in a season, and that is a major issue in my view. If a guy like that is your #1 option, you're going to be real easy to stop in the playoffs. That doesn't mean he won't be a good NBA player, maybe even an all-star... I could see him evolving into something like Jaylen Brown (who is a great player, but is also a bit overrated, by the way). I just don't think he has the same level of superstar potential that Amen Thompson does.
I don't think I understand what you mean. Age is of the same importance in every draft. It's hugely important when considering projected development. To my understanding, this isn't opinion or philosophy, just stats. Historically, younger draftees have done much better than older ones. And the younger you get the more important time gets, i.e., the difference between 23 years and 23.5 isn't meaningful, but the difference between 18.5 and 19.0 is legit important. So Whitmore is what, 18.8 and the Thompson twins are like 31? Fine, they're 20.3. I'm no stats pro but from the pros I know that difference is huge.
Think of it this way, it would have been great if Amen Thompson were drafted two years ago because his shot wouldn't be so busted at age 20. Not after two seasons of training in the NBA. Might not be good, yet but wouldn't be as bad as it is. The early years are precious, bball development slows down so much as you get into the 20s. It's quite possible (or at least not crazy to think) that two years ago Amen Thompson would have been a legit #1 overall draft prospect. In an alternative universe, the question would have been, do you want Cade #1 with a season of NCAA proof as to what he is? Or instead, do we take a chance on this 18-year-old high school kid who 1) has no statistical profile but 2) might have Kobe's body and athleticism and 3) passes at a PG level but 4) has a busted shot? I might very well have taken that Earth 2 Thompson over Cade.
Oh, hell. Dean is really good. He ranked Whitmore 16th. "Whitmore is a thick 6’7 at 232 pounds and a good athlete who loves to dunk the ball, and has a decent shot making 35% 3P 72.1% FT. He is also one of the youngest prospects in the class, turning 19 in July after the draft. But he also plays somewhat like a smaller Jabari Parker, as he is often tries to create with pure brute force and is prone to tunnel vision with 1.1 assists vs 2.4 turnovers per 40. He also drew a curiously low 0.25 FT rate given his style and tools. He is young enough for this to not be a death knell, and perhaps he can evolve into a Tobias Harris type of NBA player who is a coveted wing. And he is young enough to become even better than Tobias if things go really well. He is a pure gamble on youth and tools. There is definitely enough there for him to have potential, but it comes attached with some chunky bust risk." (https://deanondraft.substack.com/p/sweet-16-big-board)
Great point….funny thing is I’d take Cam over Amen as things currently stand, but to make a fair comparison we should be adding 3 more years of experience to Cam’s game so he’s Anen’s age and then think of who we’d pick. Not even close when adding three more years of improvement to Cam’s game.
Great point….funny thing is I’d take Cam over Amen as things currently stand, but to make a fair comparison we should be adding 3 more years of experience to Cam’s game so he’s Anen’s age and then think of who we’d pick. Not even close when adding three more years of improvement to Cam’s game. Wow…..just read your Dean report. He had Cam at 16 with star potential and both Thompson Twins in the 2nd round. He was absolutely brutal in his assessment of the twins and said watching 20 year olds beat up on 16 year olds wasn’t worth his time. He said they were overrated beyond reason, yet someone will be dumb enough to draft both in the first round.
So let's completely ignore that he's 70%+ in the paint this year, just because you've seen a single video where he had a bad night and bricked a lot? You can find similar videos for every player in the world, judging by one night makes zero sense in any sport.
Yeah, his prediction for Jalen Green was also pretty damn rough. And painfully accurate. Sengun and JC as well. Even Garuba, I think. Focused on his passing chops, IIRC. I do fear his predictions.
Well, it was right after the tournament, so the only thing that's changed since is the combine, right? And all the reports from the combine this year said not much happened in the way of changing opinions. So this is as fresh as any other scouting report but for the players' dimensions.
His probably would not change but it was suspect in other areas, like he had Wallace at third, had Filipowski at 5th, Scoot at 7th. IDK sounds like someone just going against all grains. I bet he just put Wemby and Miller at top just to having people looking at this and not be turned off completely. Someone's opinion. Whitmore had great workouts and people knew this.
I'm really ignorant here. I don't watch NBDL or college. But there are plenty of draft models that rate Scoot 5 or lower. There's a huge split. Hell, Kevin Pelton has him 13th. jessefischer33 has him at 11th. Basically, anyone who uses stats in their draft board has him low. Scouting people all have him 2 to 4
For sure, he takes some swings and misses. But everyone misses. Some just miss as a group and some miss idiosyncratically, like this cat. But I mean, the dude isn't my brother-in-law, I only pay attention to him because he's hit at a higher rate than anyone else I've followed.
And he talks 80% how awful prospects are and 20% probably what they do well. But I guess that is how he rolls. The Draft cannot arrive soon enough.
I'm suddenly very curious to know what the real number is. I mean, maybe that's the case? Maybe only 20% of each draft class remains in the league after X years? I mean, there are only 450 roster spots and 60 new draftees every year. I truly couldn't begin to estimate. But my gut says no more than 1/3 of each draft class makes it 5 years.
I have made my final decision irrespective of anyone's opinion and thoughts for the 4th pick. I went back and forth many times. I believe that the Houston Rockets should select Cam Whitmore over the Thompson twins, Walker or Hendricks etc. I believe his passing will improve with his experience since he can see the floor. He may not ever be a superstar. He is safe, young, physically and mentally tough with upside. He has also played at a higher level of competition than the Thompson twins. I'm just an amateur Houston Rockets fan. My opinion is not based on the potential return of James Harden to Houston.
Kelly Iko has been saying for weeks that Rockets will take Amen, I am really worried. It would be a terrible decision.
