Spoiler WEAKNESSES Howard does not have a ton of length. Can play a bit smaller than his listed height. Also, Howard is going to be a below-average athlete by NBA standards. Not all that explosive. Does not have a great first step or average lateral quickness for the wing position. Not all that vertical as a leaper. Extremely poor rebounder for his size. Does not seem to be willing to get into the tough areas of the court often enough. Michigan was better without Howard on the court this past season – and it wasn’t by a little. Per Pivot Analysis, Michigan beat its opponents by about 3.3 points per 100 possessions when he was on the court but beat them by 10.4 points per 100 when he was off it. In large part, that was due to his poor defensive play. Where Howard’s athletic concerns come up most is on defense. Don’t think he’s a good on-ball defender right now and is in no way a disruptive player. Gets blown by going to the rim more often than you’d like to see. Guys with a solid first step can drive him. Doesn’t use his frame all that physically, and I think his mechanics are generally poor. Struggles to cut off angles and doesn’t get his chest in front of his man. He plays high, and I think he has a bit of a higher center of gravity, which allows opposing wings and guards to get better leverage than him. Playing high also creates issues in ball screen coverages when he’s defending a guard. If he gets clipped on a screen, it’s hard for him to get his momentum going again and hard to play through that contact. He was something of a magnet for opposing teams looking for parts of Michigan to attack this past season, particularly in ball screens with Hunter Dickinson. Think Howard needs to do a much better job of getting stronger and playing stronger through his lower half. Needs to play lower and sit in a defensive stance more often. There is also something of a switchability concern right now for someone who is his size. While you might think you can just hide Howard on bigger guys as opposed to playing on smaller players, Howard also doesn’t seem to do all that well on even bigger wings. Got taken down onto the block a bit more often than you would expect for someone who is this size because he doesn’t seem to have a ton of strength through his core or lower half. Doesn’t really hold his ground all that well. Guys who can get lower than him can move him. Doesn’t play all that physically. Because he can’t get around screens, can’t stay in front of quicker players and struggles to body up against bigger players, I’m just not sure who he guards effectively right now. I also don’t think his off-ball defense is all that impactful. He sinks too far in, then when his man gets a kickout pass behind the 3-point line, he closes out very upright and allows himself to be driven by with ease. He’s not impactful using any sort of length in passing lanes and doesn’t really rotate around and protect the weak side of the rim impactfully. He doesn’t “miss” rotations, but he also doesn’t really bother opponents with his presence either. He also has a tendency in his rotations to be a bit hoppy. He takes a hop step into his movements on that end instead of strides, and defenders recognize it and play off them when he’s in- between steps – particularly on his closeouts. In general, his defensive movements and mechanics need an overhaul. That lack of burst also impacts him offensively. Michigan did a superb job of accentuating Howard’s strengths in this regard while minimizing his weaknesses, particularly on offense by getting him the ball on the move more often to allow him to get into the paint, as opposed to asking him to do so from a standstill. Juwan Howard is a terrific offensive coach and figured out how to optimize Jett’s skill set. If Jett doesn’t get on the move before starting his initial action, it’s hard for him to separate from his man. This is why he generally does not put much pressure on the rim in half-court settings. Only took one shot at the rim out of half-court actions per game, per Synergy, an extremely low number. He took only 2.6 free throws per game and did not get all the way to the rim. This is where we see the lack of lower body strength and the fact that he doesn’t play with a ton of bend rear its head again. Gets knocked off his line way too easily, and it completely stops his momentum as a driver. Howard only made 31.8 percent of his 3-point attempts from 25 feet or farther this past season, per Synergy, meaning there might be a touch of an adjustment for him to the NBA line. SUMMARY Howard’s evaluation comes down to how much improvement you think you can make in his defensive mechanics and what kind of scheme you plan on running. If you don’t believe he can improve in either respect, he has the potential to be more of a rotation player who spaces the floor at a high level but struggles to find anyone to guard and doesn’t impact the box score outside of scoring. If you do believe in his defense improving, he has a real chance to be an impactful starter. His versatile shooting off movement and off pull-ups gives him an extremely high ceiling as an offensive player, especially when mixed with the fact that he can pass and playmake a bit on the move. More than anything, scheme will be tremendously important for Howard. If you put him into a scheme with a lot of high ball screens for a heliocentric offensive player where his teammates stand around spacing the floor, he’s probably not going to get the most out of his game. If you play more of a ball movement, off-ball movement, dribble handoff style with creative offensive actions, he has potential to be useful because of his ability to shoot on the move, handle the ball once he gets it going downhill and make solid passing reads. The idea here is that he can be an impactful player in the vein of a Kevin Huerter, someone who has turned into an extremely valuable piece for the Kings. But to reach that level, he must improve defensively. I think I’m just a little bit lower on him than consensus because of that.
Spoiler 34. Rayan Rupert | W | New Zealand Breakers | Birthdate: May 31, 2004 (Age: 19) | 6-6 | 195 LBS | Hometown: Strasbourg, France BACKGROUND Parents are Thierry and Elham. Thierry, a former professional player in France, was a powerful four who was also a member of the French national team from 2001-04. Thierry passed away due to a heart attack in 2013 when Rayan was eight. Rayan also has an older sister, Iliana, who was selected 12th in the 2021 WNBA Draft as a 6-foot-4 stretch four. Both Iliana and Rayan wear No. 12 to honor their father, who also wore No. 12. Rayan has a classic developmental story in France. He was discovered early, likely in part because of his lineage and the success of his older sister. From there, he went to INSEP Academy, the French insti- tute for sports where many of the best basketball players within the country go to develop their games. He started to play for the academy’s highest-level team in 2019, next to former and future potential draft picks such as Ousmane Dieng, Ismaël Kamagate, Daniel Batcho, Adama Bal and Yohan Traore. The next year, he also played a couple of games next to Victor Wembanyama, who joined the high-level prospects for four games. Rupert stayed at INSEP for three years, where he largely played a lot of minutes as a lead guard. Had a bit of a growth spurt throughout his time there to get up to his current 6-foot-7 height. Rupert had options across the board on where his next step would be for 2021-22, but he decided to follow in the footsteps of his former INSEP team- mate Dieng and head to the New Zealand Breakers in the Australian NBL in its Next Stars program. Rupert played well, although he missed two months in the middle of the season due to a left wrist injury. Came back to play for the Breakers in the latter part of the season, earning minutes with his tenacious defensive ability. Was excellent on that end this past season and was the first Next Star to truly get high-leverage minutes on a winning team. Noted as a very high-character player by those in the NBL and around the Breakers. Loves to work on his game. Very competitive. Declared for the 2023 NBA Draft following the season. At- tended the 2023 NBA Draft Combine. STRENGTHS Hard to overemphasize how elite his physical frame is for the role he’ll play. Rupert is 6-foot-6 without shoes with a 7-foot-2 wingspan, a length measurement that dwarfs that of most wings. Has an 8-foot-10 standing reach that is closer to that of a four than a wing. Rupert also really knows how to use that length. He has long limbs, so he utilizes long strides and gets his hands involved in plays most players can’t. He also plays really hard. Has an aggressive mindset on the defensive end. You can trust him, as the Breakers already have. Outside of LaMelo Ball and Josh Giddey, Rupert is probably the most impressive Next Star the NBL has seen in terms of readiness to play as a teenager in a professional league. He looks like he belongs on a good team. That length is best utilized on the defensive end right now. He’s exceptionally disruptive. He has quick hands and can get his arms into an opposing player’s dribble while still maintaining legal guarding position a bit further away from the offensive player’s body. Having grown up as a lead guard, I think he has an innate understanding of guarding at the point of attack. It always makes him a threatening on-ball defender. Pressures ballhandlers in the backcourt before they cross half court. He fights through screens at a high level and gets his hands into dribble-handoff exchanges to get deflections other players can’t get. He understands angles well and uses that length to stay in front of opposing players. Uses that strong lateral quickness to stop opposing guards and wings from getting paint touches. That mix of quickness and size/length is going to allow him to guard one through three effectively, even early in his NBA career. That length also makes him a terrific off-ball havoc creator. He has great anticipation for such a young age and really gets his arms into passing lanes well, in addition to forcing turnovers on little digs onto drivers and post players. He does get a bit overaggressive at times, but his recovery play is strong. Uses his length to get back into plays in scramble situations and generally plays light on his feet. Rotates well around the court. Also creates a lot of transition opportunities and drives play out there through his deflections and steals. All of this leads to a world where it’s possible, if he adds real physical strength in the next five years – and can stay on the court offensively – he could turn into an All-Defense-caliber player in his prime. With the Breakers, he largely played off the ball and out of spot-up opportunities offensively. His role in their half-court offense was to camp out in the corners. Got a lot of cross-corner kickouts that ended with long closeouts from defenders where he could choose to fire from 3 or drive. You can see his comfort level handling the ball here. If he gets a heavy closeout, he’s very comfortable putting the ball on the deck and getting to the midrange area and taking push shots or floaters. Additionally, he shows occasional flashes in ball screens. Has some passing ability from that past as a lead guard but needs to keep working through his reads. Generally, a quick processor who knows how to play. Think he’s a sharp cutter and finishes well off those situations.
Spoiler WEAKNESSES While Rupert has a terrific frame and strong lateral, side-to-side quickness, I don’t love his explosiveness. Don’t think he’s an above-average jumper by NBA wing standards. Also doesn’t have a great first step. He’s more of a fluid athlete than an explosive one. Body is filling out still, at 190 pounds. Will fill out in time but might take a year or two before he can truly deal with the physicality of the NBA. Rupert has limitations offensively. The big one is the shooting. Can Rupert become a reliable shooter? He has what looks to be a projectable shot moving forward. He uses that length well on the shot, possessing a very high release point that is hard to bother. Much better from the corners than everywhere else. Made 32.4 percent from the corners, which is much better than anywhere else on the court. But has real issues with his base. Think his feet are a bit wild pre-shot. Doesn’t always consistently have his feet in the same spot. Sometimes feet are narrow. Sometimes feet are wide. Ended up seeming like he missed a lot of them short, which points to him not getting enough of his legs into the shot. Also looks a bit robotic with how he brings the ball up into his shooting pocket. Needs to speed it up too. Made 25.5 percent off the catch from 3 this past season, per Synergy, which isn’t good enough to keep him on the floor. Sydney basically didn’t guard him in the NBL Finals, which led to him getting benched. Needs to improve here tremendously or else he might not stick. Can operate in ball screens but is not any sort of isolation creator. Doesn’t have a ton of technical craft off the bounce at this point. Loose handle. Not a ton of suddenness. Doesn’t have much in the way of change of direction or rapid change of pace, although he does shift gears well. Also, does not really get to the rim out of these self-creation situations. Most of his rim attempts come off cuts or in transition. As a driver out of spot-ups or pick-and-roll ballhandler, he tends to be more of a midrange player who tries to pull-up from 15 feet or drive to get his floater within 6 feet. Made just 19.4 percent of his pull-ups, per Synergy, and just 26.7 percent of his floaters. Has potential to grow into some skill but likely will never be a consistent on-ball creator who pressures the paint or hits pull-up 3s at a high level. On offense, he needs to continue to round out the little intricacies of his game. Knows what he’s looking at coming off ball screens as a passer but isn’t always the best passer on the move when he attacks off spot-ups. Doesn’t really turn it over but is still working to read where the help is coming from on defense. In time, I think these aspects end up being fixed as he gains more experience and game-speed professional reps. But they could lead to things being slow early. SUMMARY Rupert’s length gives him an awful lot to be excited about as a long-term investment. He has a terrific frame and tremendous upside on defense due to his physical tools and lateral quickness. He’s a former point guard who is at least comfortable handling the ball and making plays, which should allow him to continue to build on those skills to the level he needs them in the NBA. He is your patented 3-and-D type prospect if the shooting comes through. But his season as shooter was not good enough to instill a whole lot of confidence on that piece of his game coming through. It’d be ambitious to expect him to turn into a 15-point-per- game scorer or to provide much offensive value in the first three years of his career. But he’s likely going to be a very difficult problem for offenses when he’s defending due to his rotational instincts, motor and on-ball potential. If all his skills hit, you can squint and see a starter down the road. But that requires you to really have a plan for how to work through his issues with his shooting base. If you’re going to make a developmental bet as an NBA team, I get buying into Rupert. I just can’t really do it before the end of the first, and I’d probably prefer it more in the early second round given how much work is required on the offensive end.
Spoiler Has Brandin in Tier 6 “Second round guarantee swings” 42. Brandin Podziemski | G/W | Santa Clara | Birthdate: Feb. 25, 2003 (Age: 20) | 6-4 | 205 LBS | Hometown: Greenfield, Wis. BACKGROUND Parents are John and Barb. Has one younger sister. Brandin wasn’t really a high-level basketball player early in high school by NBA standards because he didn’t come to the sport until later in middle school. Wasn’t seen as a prospect as a freshman, but immediately made his mark as a sophomore at St. John’s Northwestern. Won his conference’s player of the year award in all three seasons of high school and was all-state in all three years. Averaged 22 points per game as a sophomore then 27 points per game as a junior. As a senior, Podziemski became a genuinely impactful national recruit. Averaged 35 points and 10 rebounds while winning the Wisconsin Mr. Basketball award in addition to the Gatorade Player of the Year. Became the first player to score 2,000 points in Wisconsin state history in just three seasons of basketball. Was a four-star recruit and a borderline top-100 prospect in the country. Committed to Illinois out of high school over Kentucky, Wake Forest, Miami and Vanderbilt as one of the later recruits to decide. Really struggled to make an impact as a freshman, though. Played only 69 minutes as he struggled to adjust defensively to college basketball. Decided to transfer following the season. Chose Santa Clara, and immediately broke out as one of the best mid-major players in the country. He was dominant offensively and as a rebounder for a guard. Won the WCC Newcomer of the Year award, was first-team All-WCC and won co-Player of the Year in the league. Was a phenomenal hit for an underrated Santa Clara team that finished third in the WCC. Podziemski declared for the 2023 NBA Draft following a successful season, maintaining his eligibility for college. Was invited to the 2023 NBA Draft Combine. Impressed overall throughout the pre-draft process. STRENGTHS Podziemski was a superb scorer this past season. Largely, it’s because he has elite touch and hand-eye coordination. He’s a ridiculous shooter, has a nose for the basketball and plays with a high motor. Terrific rebounder for a guard. One of the best catch-and-shoot scorers in the country. Hard to overemphasize how pure the shot looks. Podziemski drills them at a ridiculously high clip, and so many of them hit nothing but net. Hit 44 percent from 3 off the catch. This is where he’ll make his biggest impact in the NBA. Statistically, also drilled 3s from NBA range at a high level, making 46 percent of his attempts from beyond 25 feet (although bizarrely only made five of his 16 attempts from beyond 27). Really good shot prep. Very quiet shot. Doesn’t have a ton of elevation on it. Also made quite a few off some interesting movement sets. Made a few off screening actions, but I thought he was a bit more interesting off dribble handoffs. Flattens out behind them and fires. Rarely takes them off the hop, but can make them from multiple different footwork, planting with either his right or his left foot first. Loves the no- dribble jab-step 3 to create that little bit of separation. Podziemski uses the threat of his jumper off the catch well to knock down shots off the dribble. Hit 41.8 percent of his 3s off the dribble, which is a wild number. Finished top 15 in the country in made pull-up 3s per game. Has a great sense of when he has the perfect enough window to fire. Great at relocating off shot-fakes. Again, will flatten out right behind screens and fire as soon as he sees the smallest amount of space. Hit 36 percent from 3 off ball screens, making 15 such shots, per Synergy. Will also use the threat of this skill to drive inside the 3-point line and pull-up from the midrange. Not quite as good here as he is from 3 but does have the floater counter he can get to. He’s incredibly crafty with his footwork and spin moves to get into these shots. Made 45 percent of his floaters this past season, per Synergy, and he averaged more points off floaters this past season than all but 16 other players this past season. Hits them off jump-stops, runners, normal footwork or wrong footwork. Great touch on these high-arching shots. While Podziemski is best as a scorer now, I think he passes well off his drives by using the threat of his scoring ability to draw attention. Throws live-dribble passes with both hands in a way that is fun. Santa Clara loved running empty-side ball screens, where Podziemski would make quick reads to his roll man if it came available. Just consistently finds unique and strange angles into passes, in part because of that ability to live-dribble passes with either hand. Throws weird angle underhand lobs and pocket passes. Throws wild wrap-around passes and shovels. Just a creative pick-and-roll passer. Averaged 3.7 assists. His game just flows well into itself. The catch-and-shoot flows into the game off the bounce which flows into the passing. It just really works.
Spoiler WEAKNESSES Size is a real question. Podziemski came in below 6-foot-4 without shoes and does not have any length to speak of with a 6-foot-5 1/2 wingspan. Only has an 8-foot 1/2 standing reach, a number more commensurate with point guards. Has the size of a combo- guard, not a wing. Will teams see him that way? Real question here is athleticism. Has zero lift as a leaper. No vertical pop. Very ground-bound player. Doesn’t really elevate into the shot or floater. Doesn’t elevate around the rim. Then, does not have any real burst on the ground. Doesn’t have a strong first step. Also doesn’t seem to have much hip flexibility or shiftiness. He’s crafty with his footwork but not shifty through his core. Plays very square to the rim, which helps him with his shot prep but not always with his driving game. These athletic deficiencies come up in many different parts of his game. Let’s start on defense, because I think that’s where I’m most worried about Podziemski. Not a very good on-ball defender. Intersection of lack of size and lack of speed makes him almost a tweener on that end. Not fast enough to guard good perimeter players. But not big and long enough to guard wings. Struggles to stay in front of faster guards. Really poor at containing guards in any tangible way. Then struggles to body up against guys. Exceedingly poor closing out to shooters and containing penetration because it involves having to stop and restart his momentum. Gives up a ton of drives that way. Then, doesn’t really have the length or vertical ability to really contest shots. The very low standing reach metric shows up here on tape. Think he’s going to be a magnet for switches in the NBA. Teams will try to get their primary creator switched onto Podziemski and attack him. How he holds up in these settings will be the determining factor on if he can stick in the NBA. Offensively, Podziemski’s athletic concerns also really pop up. He really struggles to separate from his man in any way. Had to dance with the ball a lot. As mentioned above, has no shiftiness on a live dribble. Everything is either a stop into a pivot, or a straight line downhill, and that’s if he can get to a straight line. Often ends up taking rounded driving angles in screens and isolation. Gets sped up if he gets pressured tightly. Also, somewhat predictable. Much better driving to his left than his right. Very easy to cut him off by sliding in front of him. Very easy to recover on him around screens. Ends up picking up his dribble in the midrange way more than you’d expect. Even in college, ends up taking a ton of tough shots. Solid in hostage dribbles to keep guys on his hip, but if you are long and can navigate screens, you can get back into him. Tends to get by with crafty footwork as opposed to change of pace. Against bigger, longer defenders, I’m not convinced that this will work stylistically. I also don’t love him as a finisher. Has some craft with his touch because of the floaters. But doesn’t get all the way there often. Took only two shots per rim in the half court. Then, also was average as a finisher. Made 53.9 percent at the rim, per Synergy, in half-court settings. Not a terrible number, but not an ideal one given that the WCC was the country’s top offensive and worst defensive conference, allowing the highest 2-point percentage of any league in the country this past season. Very little vertical pop, which means he can’t get there. Production-wise, Podziemski did struggle much more against good teams than he did against average or bad teams. In six games against what KenPom defines as Tier A teams, Podziemski had a below-average 53.5 true shooting percentage. His defensive rebounding rate dropped by 25 percent, as did his assist rate. Particularly, really struggled from 2-point range, which makes sense given the tape. Should be concerned about this drop-off in production against better teams and how it projects to the NBA? SUMMARY Truly, it’s all about how badly you think the athletic deficiencies will hold back Podziemski on the defensive end. I buy him completely as an elite shooter from distance. But can he prove that he can guard anybody? His instincts on that end aren’t bad, but tools matter in the NBA on defense when you’re going up against 6-foot-6-plus primary creators with great length that are elite athletes. Someone like Austin Reaves, who has turned into a reasonable NBA defender, had much more fluid hips. Podziemski needs to try to find a way to get more athletic, in my view. Otherwise, he’s going to get hunted on the defensive end almost every time down the court in the NBA. He’s also almost wholly going to be a perimeter player in the NBA. The best-case comparison here is someone like Luke Kennard if you really buy into the touch and overall hooper feel. But even Kennard, I think, was a silkier athlete with a quicker shot release. Podziemski has an elite NBA skill in his shooting and touch, which is something many other prospects in this class just cannot say. But I also think he has some real deficiencies he needs to fix to stay on the NBA court and take advantage of those skills.
Spoiler 36. Gregory “G.G.” Jackson | F | South Carolina | Birthdate: Dec. 17, 2004 (Age: 18) | 6-8 | 215 LBS | Hometown: Columbia, S.C. Parents are Gregory and LaKeysha. Father is a pastor. Also has a sister who attends South Carolina. Jackson has long been considered one of the best prospects in his class, which was originally the class of 2023. Went to Ridge View High School in Columbia and was immediately a terrific player in his age group. As a sophomore, he led Ridge View to a state title. Then as a junior, he led the school to another state title and won the state’s Gatorade Player of the Year award. After his junior season end- ed, he committed to North Carolina as one of the top recruits in the class. Played for Team CP3 on the Nike EYBL circuit. Was named MVP of the NBPA Top-100 Camp. Won a gold medal with Team USA in the 2022 FIBA Americas Championships, finish- ing third on the team in scoring and tops in rebounding as an underage player. Was considered at that point the top recruit in the class of 2023. At the end of the AAU season, he decided to reclassify to the 2022 recruiting class. Instead of attending North Carolina, he stayed home to attend South Carolina. He began the season at 17 years old and was one of the youngest players in the country. From a basketball development perspective, the decision was not the best one. Jackson made the nine-person All-Freshman team in the SEC because he put up counting numbers, but he was one of the least efficient players in all of col- lege basketball. In large part, the players around him were not SEC-quality, and he ended up having an enormous burden on his shoulders in terms of production. He was not successful, and the team struggled to an 11-21 record, including a 4-14 mark in the league. Throughout the season, Jackson also displayed some immature moments, including complaining about late-game touches from the coaching staff on Instagram Live. He had poor body language throughout the year. NBA teams picked up on all of this and had real questions that Jackson needed to answer throughout the pre-draft process. He declared for the 2023 NBA Draft even with all of this said. Was invited to the 2023 NBA Draft Combine. STRENGTHS A fluid athlete for being 6-foot-8 1/4 without shoes. Plays with great balance and has real shiftiness. Has a very good frame that looks like it’ll project well toward adding strength and physicality while maintaining what makes him intriguing. Has some vertical pop when he has time and space to jump, such as when he’s in the dunker spot with a free runway toward the rim or out in transition. Also an intriguing long leaper in that he covers a lot of ground after leaving his feet with his stride length. The skill Jackson showcased most this past season was his ability to create shots. He displayed increased ability out of isolations and ball screens, capable at his size of attacking defenders. His handle is more refined than most 18-year-olds you see at that size. He can string out defenders in ball screens, and his goal is to use his size to attack mismatches in those circumstances. That balance shows up here, as he has a deep bag of tricks for someone his size to be able separate from his man and has real shake. He’ll try to get to the rim but often he ends up creating some sort of midrange or 3-point pull-up jumper. About 22 percent of Jackson’s overall half-court shot attempts were pull-up jumpers in the midrange, which is a wild number for a teenager at this level. That’s not necessarily a good thing, but it shows how he can get that shot regularly. Mechanically, the jumper looks great long term even if the results are poor. He gets terrific elevation on the shot and has a very high release point. He can get into it from a variety of footwork from several different situations. Takes them off the hop or off a one-two step. Likes to drive to his right and get to his baseline stepback fadeaway or cross over and dance to get to a stepback to his left at the baseline. For his age, he has a very advanced ability to read the way his man is leaning and make a play. He’ll hit reverse pivots into midrange jumpers. His fadeaway consistently looks on-balance even if the shot doesn’t always fall. Can spin over either shoulder for a fadeaway after backing down his man. When he does get to the rim, he uses his length and extension on step-through moves impressively. He has the kind of game that, aesthetically, looks like it should translate as he improves his shooting consistency.
Spoiler WEAKNESSES Jackson isn’t overly long and isn’t all that explosive when in a crowd. Has just an 8-foot-10 standing reach that isn’t particularly big for a four. Can really rise when he gets some time and space, but he isn’t exactly a quick-twitch athlete. Doesn’t have an awesome first step, which is why he has to rely on being a technician away from the rim. As a leaper, he’s much better loading up off two feet as opposed to one but can be above the rim off one. His shooting consistency even on open looks was not ideal. I buy him as a shooter long term, but he made just 35.6 percent of his unguarded half-court catch-and-shoot attempts this past season. His shot selection is horrible. There’s no way to sugarcoat that. Pulling up from midrange for about 22 percent of your shots is not a good thing. Most of those shots end up being contested. In total, he made just 30 percent of his pull-up jumpers this past season, including just a 36.1 effective field goal percentage according to Synergy. On top of that, he regularly floats around the perimeter. Instead of using his size to be able to get all the way to the rim, he settles. He takes some absurd early shot-clock attempts that just aren’t good enough. When he gets to the rim, though, he’s not a great finisher. Made just 48.9 percent of his half-court attempts at the rim, a disastrous number for a player who is 6-foot-9. Made just 42.6 percent of his layups. This is the place where you see him get a bit off-balance from time to time. He takes a lot of leaning finger rolls going away from contact. Takes off too far from the rim consistently. Seems not to have adjusted there to playing against bigger, longer players and takes a lot of tough shots here. All of this reverts to his decision-making and how he seems to read – or not read – the floor. Jackson made very few high-level passing reads this past season. Most of the time he got the ball, he was going to rise for a shot, no matter how contested it was. There were so many moments where he had open teammates, and instead of hitting them for an easy shot he instead tried to throw up a wild one. Was the epitome of a tunnel-visioned player. Even when he did see the reads out of doubles, he threw wild passes that didn’t hit the target often enough. Averaged a remarkably low 0.8 assists per game in 32 minutes versus 2.7 turnovers. Even the good passes, it felt like most of them came from a standstill on the block as opposed to live movement plays. I’m not sure I can remember a shot-creator prospect with a 1:3 assist-to-turnover ratio like this. Desperately, drastically needs to work on his feel on the offensive end of the court. He needs to get rid of the 10 or so horrible plays he’d make per game. Can’t just be all about him at the NBA level, or he’ll fail. This is, by far, the place he has the most work to do. Defensively, Jackson is nowhere near ready to make an impact at the NBA level. On the ball, he has the length and balance to be a good defender but was consistently poor. He got driven by a ton of smaller guys this past season. Doesn’t seem to have great hip flexibility in terms of his lateral defensive movements to try to cut off angles. Also, would regularly get driven backward and hit on pull-up attempts. He really struggled to get through screens for multiple reasons. His angles getting around them were terrible, and then if he got too far back, he’d just quit on the play. Doesn’t seem to have great awareness of what’s happening around him off the ball and when he’s a team defender. Consistent ball-watcher. Got back cut often. Didn’t have the best rotational instincts in scramble situations. Didn’t rotate to cover the weak side of the rim enough. He didn’t even seem to know the scouting report in a lot of moments, such as when he went way under multiple Brandon Miller off-ball screens when the Gamecocks played Alabama. Again, Jackson is 18, so you need to give him some benefit of the doubt. But he’ll be starting from a real low point in terms of defensive feel. But beyond feel, a big part of Jackson’s struggles on defense were just effort and engagement. Especially in the back half of the season, Jackson’s effort level was abysmal. He wasn’t nearly active enough, and there were lapses all over the place because of it. Maybe getting Jackson out of South Carolina and into a professional structure will bring more out of him defensively. SUMMARY Jackson is all about how strongly you value the ability to create shots. Jackson can get his own shot and is one of the more polished players I’ve seen in that regard playing at the college level at his age. He’s creative with his footwork and handle and has real shiftiness and change of pace. There is a lot to like there. I think, long term, he will make shots. But everything else right now is at such a deficit that Jackson is about as much of a project as one will find in the draft. Teams will need to be exceptionally patient with him. He will not be a positive NBA player until at least Year 3, and I think he should spend most of, if not his entire, rookie season in the G League working on what he needs to improve. On top of that, a big concern here is the lack of explosiveness with his first step and lateral quickness. Can he get to the rim enough to be efficient? Does he have the upside to separate consistently to where all his shots are not contested opportunities? The other big question is maturity. Jackson did not deal well with adversity this past season, between his poor body language on the court, his separation from his teammates at times in huddles and his Instagram Live outburst questioning the coaching staff. Is Jackson mature enough to overcome the adversity that will come from playing against grown men? He went through real struggles playing against less talented competition than professionals. If you value shot creation above all and you think Jackson’s upside as a shooter is high enough, you can see a world where Jackson has high upside if the issue was simply getting him out of the South Carolina environment. If you think Jackson’s feel for the game just isn’t high enough and he’s still multiple years away from being mature enough to overcome his issues as a player, then you probably shouldn’t take him. I rank players based off what I think their value will be to the organization that drafts them. Much like I felt about Talen Horton-Tucker, I don’t think Jackson will bring much return on investment for that first team. But also, like Horton-Tucker, I think Jackson will probably become something valuable in the future. It’s just likely to take a couple of stops to get there.
Spoiler 40. James Nnaji | C | Barcelona | Birthdate: Aug. 14, 2004 (Age: 18) | 6-11 | 250 LBS | Hometown: Makurdi, Nigeria BACKGROUND Incredible story and journey in terms of how he was found. Nnaji didn’t pick up basketball until he was 12 years old. Grew up in Nigeria and helped his mother work. Continued to do that and was only able to train a couple of times per week. Participated in Giants of Africa, an organization run by Raptors president of basketball operations Masai Ujiri. Then, he made a social media post about himself and got noticed by an academy in Hungary that allowed him to train there. Performed well enough there to get signed by European agents, who made a highlight reel they sent around to bigger clubs in Europe. Barcelona came calling, and Nnaji signed there in 2020. He played within Barca’s second team and youth teams in his first year before continuing to develop and progress. Played at the Adidas Next Generation Tournament in 2021 and was named to the All-Tournament team. Rapidly got better to the point that he made his debut with the senior team as a 17-year-old in 2021-22. He played 13 EuroLeague games and 12 ACB games, showcasing real athleticism and potential in the flashes he’d get on the court. In 2022-23, blossomed a bit more into a part-time role for one of the best teams outside of the NBA. Didn’t receive consistent playing time but started a few Spanish league games and popped in a few moments in front of scouts that came out to see him. Still seen as quite raw but declared for the 2023 NBA Draft as an international early entrant. STRENGTHS Nnaji has eye-popping tools. He’s 6-foot-11 with a 7-foot-5 wingspan and an enormous standing reach. Will have very legitimate measurements even by the giant standard of NBA centers. Has a chiseled, enormous frame that should also play well at that level. Comes in at around 250 pounds already and uses that frame to play physically and aggressively. Also has real explosiveness and athleticism. Real pop for his size as a vertical leaper. Gets off the ground quickly. Also moves well laterally for his size. Plays hard with a high motor. Crashes the glass constantly, particularly on the offensive end. Creates second opportunities for his teammates. Physical, and puts a body on his man all the time. Unsurprisingly, given Nnaji’s relative inexperience, those tools best showcase as an interior defensive presence right now. He has been a terrific per-possession shot blocker in the ACB over his two seasons there, ranking in the top-10 in terms of blocks per minute. Averaged 1.9 blocks per 36 minutes. Covers ground with his length incredibly quickly as an interior weakside rotator. Again, gets off the ground quickly. Seems to have great timing and instincts, then also has a terrific second jump that allows him to contest and rebound in the same play. Very good both as a primary rim protector against drivers and as that secondary rim protector contesting at the basket. Also does a good job staying vertical and as big as possible for a young player who is inexperienced. Doesn’t foul as a rim protector regularly. I think Nnaji’s also effective in drop coverage on defense. Keeps his feet active. Stays big and does a good job keeping both the roller and the ballhandler in front of him. Slides and keeps his chest in front of guys. If he gets the corner turned on him, has incredibly quick reaction and recovery skills. Also, not terrible in space for a player who is this big. Don’t know that I’d necessarily call him “switchable,” and generally has a lot of technique issues. But he can hold his own for the most part when he gets strung out on an island athletically. Has a lot of technique flaws to work through in terms of his slides and I think that some of the craftier guards might be able to get him with pump fakes and hesitation moves, but projects well in terms of movement skills to hold his own away from the rim if he can keep improving, even if I’m doubtful he’ll be an impact guy there. Offensively, Nnaji’s game is very simple. He is a rim runner. Good in the dunker spot. If you let him gather off two feet in that area, he is throwing the ball down with authority. Terrific in ball screens. Has a case as the best lob threat in this class outside of Wembanyama. Rolls hard to the rim constantly and has a good sense of how and when to time his rolls to be able to find the open passing angle. Just has an enormous catch radius because of his wingspan and leaping ability. Can out high-point the ball against almost anyone. Knows when to slip or when to hold the screen and gets downhill. If he slips the screen, you better get a body on him because if you don’t, it’s hard to stop him. Made 78.9 percent at the basket this past season, and 82 percent in the half court. Also doesn’t have terrible touch around the basket. Made 72 percent of his layups around the basket as well, but most of them come right at rim. Comfortable using his left hand which showcases some potential for growth, although not quite great at it yet.
Spoiler WEAKNESSES Nnaji is an extremely raw player in several respects. Essentially, there’s zero potential to shoot from outside of 8 or so feet at the NBA level. No post game at all to speak of right now because of that lack of innate feel he possesses and doesn’t tend to have great touch when he must put together footwork and shooting at the same time. You can also see that in some short-roll scenarios, where he’s asked to try to put the ball on the deck. Unless he has a wide-open driving lane where he can dribble once and finish, it’s tough for him. On top of it, he takes zero jump shots. Literally did not take a jumper this past season. Made just 46.3 percent from the free-throw line. He drastically needs to improve, or he’ll be a hack candidate. Not a great passer or ballhandler. Does not have control over the ball when putting it on the deck. Not sure how great I feel about running actions with him away from the rim like dribble handoffs. One of those guys that always seems completely sped up when he catches the ball, again probably because he doesn’t have a ton of experience. A lot of ball control and footwork-based turnovers. Will travel. Doesn’t have the natural muscle memory from having done moves like this from when he was young. Looks like his body can’t keep up with his mind. Then, as a passer, just doesn’t seem to keep his eyes up to make plays for his teammates. Has to stay concentrated on the ball. Dished out 13 assists in 43 games this past season. Wouldn’t be all that useful in short-roll settings right now if teams blitz ballhandlers in ball screens. I mentioned those defensive issues above, and Nnaji does generally need to improve technically. Very poor in this area right now. Think he can be aggressive anticipating that offensive players will go around screens as opposed to rejecting them, which makes him a prime candidate to get driven straight up off rejected screens. Will be very foul prone because of how he uses his hands on the perimeter. Very much a hand-check player to stay in front of guards. Has those very active feet but can be a bit hoppy, which allows smarter guards to be creative against him. Just needs to keep working on his instincts and staying into his defensive stance for longer periods. SUMMARY Nnaji has immense athletic tools and has all sorts of potential. He’s a real rim protector and is a terrific catch-and-finish athlete, with a huge catch radius and the ability to high-point the basketball. He’s also not a bad mover in space, and with some technical improvements, he could have a chance to hold his own out there. The issue, as mentioned, is his rawness. In a skill- oriented NBA, he has a long way to go to hit baseline levels on some of these skill sets required to get on the court. Having said that, unlike some positions with players who have a limited statistical credentials or on-court success, there is a track record of centers with plus positional size, length and athleticism figuring it out and making it when being picked beyond pick No. 25. At the top end, you have Rudy Gobert. Guys like Mitchell Robinson and Clint Capela are great success stories who became high-end starters. Daniel Gafford and Hassan Whiteside are great examples. There are real players here you can point to as comparables to Nnaji who have become difference-makers. There are obviously several examples in the other direction, but the success rate is real. Nnaji is a bit rawer than those players, but a patient team might get a steal.
this is a guy I’d love to draft late…assuming a consolidation trade. The league has shown that you don’t have to spend a high pick to get a good rim runner. You just have to draft well and be patient.
Thanks J.R.! That's the lowest by far I've seen Jackson rated and the lower end for Nnaji as well. I've seen Jackson going at #18 and just saw Nnaji at #23 in one mock so he may be a late riser. I know Rafael Barlowe's REALLY high on Jackson's long term potential and the more I watch him the higher my opinion of him gets as well. 6'8.25'' barefoot which is 6'9.5'' in shoes with an almost 7' wingspan (6'11.5''). He's the youngest player in the draft (18.5) and already has a deep bag of skills. He can shoot off the bounce, has a step back 3 ball, can drive to the rim and finish, is already big and physical enough to bump people off to get his shot up and physical enough to bang down low a bit as well. ALREADY showing the developing skills of a 3 level scorer! His main problem is lack of discipline on his shot selection and integrating into a set offense. Those are things that can be taught at the next level. This is he definition of a HIGH potential player who I would take a flyer on at #20 under Udoka but wouldn't if Silas was still here. Where Silas would probably just roll the ball out (and grin) Ime will teach and require him to make good decisions to get consistent playing time. Would be totally fine with GG at #20 myself.
I need the rockets to be aggressively trying to pair Tate and/or KJ (or anyone but our core) with #20 to move up for a top prospect, or for an impact vet on a good contract. Really hope we don’t stand pat at #20.
Jackson rose during the season (from memory he made a lot of shots) - then fell off late in the season as he avoided driving and settled for terrible shots (and missed a lot). I went off him as a prospect - but he can certainly take and make tough shots. I think he is a project and may take some time, and may or may not ever work out.
Since Brandin is in Houston this week, here is a profile article from No Ceilings that is a great read. He’s one of my favorite sneaky home run for the No.20 pick) or even trade down like what we did with TyTy last year) https://www.noceilingsnba.com/p/brandin-podziemski-a-path-to-greatness Dawg. High feel, super smart. Highly skilled. Excellent shooter. Best guard rebounder of the class. Santa Clara has an eye for underrated prospect (Jalen Williams, whom the coach cited as in a similar mold to Brandin). Jett (less likely) and Brandin are two of my favorite choices at 20.
Some draft pairs I would like to come away with by consolidating the #20 pick with other assets: Scoot Henderson and nobody else (trade up) Brandon Miller and Cason Wallace Amen Thompson and Gradey Dick
