This pick depends on our goals of getting someone that can quickly contribute who is a great value pick vs. someone that has high boom/bust potential. I'd much rather take a huge gamble at #20 than #4. If we go boom/bust, there are many candidates that fit - GG Jackson, Bilal Coulibaly, Rayan Rupert, Leonard Miller, etc. We may even trade this pick, but I hope we keep it. While we do have many 3/4s, we don’t have many that can shoot, play defense, and have high IQ at the same time. KMJ is elite at cutting/dunks, but his shooting is erratic and he is a below average defender. Tate is a good post player, but is an average defender, can’t shoot, and holds onto the ball too long. For this pick to work, the Rockets will need to trade at least 1 of KMJ/Tate, if not both. I don’t think they add too much value for the Rockets and they both hinder development of other players. Kris Murray at #20 is almost too good to be true. It is easy to envision him having a 10-15 year career in the NBA as a championship rotation level player or a high level starter. It is very rare for one twin to be vastly superior to another. Keegan was a good pick at #4, so picking Kris at #20 should be a no brainer based on history and the probability of success for twins. The only case I can find in the past 30 years where 1 twin was definitely superior to another was Brook vs. Robin Lopez. Even then, Brook was picked at #10 and Robin at #15. Robin still played 15 years in the NBA, but could never develop a 3 point shot to expand his career. Here are the other twins worth mentioning: Horace and Harvey Grant Drafted #10 and #12 in different drafts Both high level starters Marcus Markieff Morris Markieff picked before Marcus, but Marcus has been better recently Jason and Jarron Collins Jason picked in 1st round and Jarron in 2nd round Although Jason may be slightly better, both had similar NBA careers as a bench bigs Caleb and Cody Martin Caleb undrafted, Cody drafted #36 Caleb may be the better player as we’ve seen with the Heat Amen/Ausar Thompson While Amen is projected to be picked higher, no one knows who will ultimately be the best player Bottom line is that the talent of twins are often similar in the NBA and we may not know who the better twin is during the draft (Martin/Morris twins). While Keegan certainly appears to the better player, I’m not sure the gap is large enough where Keegan is a good pick at #4, but Kris isn’t at #20. Keegan Murray Summary Positives 6’7.75” barefoot w/ 6’11.75” wingspan High IQ and great feel for the game High energy and willing to do dirty work Potential 3/D player that can play multiple positions Projected 36.2% 3 point shooter in the NBA Negatives Old for draft class - already 22 years old Slightly worse shooter than Keegan (only shot 33.5% from 3, but shot 38.7% last year) College stats were not as good as Keegan’s (although Kris played a harder schedule) Side Notes - Dereck Lively likely increased his stock too much, but if he's available at #20, he is a must draft. - Would love to sign Oscar Tshiebwe as an undrafted FA. There may be a role for him in the NBA.
I'm onboard with this one. I think Murray is a bit underrated and is likely to be a good floor spacer and a decent defensive player in short order, like a slightly worse version of his brother. I think I'd take him over Lively at this point. Pretty good chance we trade away this pick though.
Yeah, I'm fine with this if he makes it to #20, Podzemski and Sensebaugh are also advanced stats kings, poorer measurables but also younger. What are we going to do with Smith, Hendricks, Eason, Murray, Martin and Garuba going forward Medicine?
By the way, not twins, but another pair of NBA brothers is Tyus and Tre Jones, and they actually look like they're having surprisingly similar career trajectories.
Need to trade Martin and Tate. They're too flawed and they're not good enough IMO. I'm also not paying KMJ $10 million+ per year, so I'd rather trade. Garuba needs to get more reps. I didn't understand why we started playing Boban minutes that should have been Garuba's.
I haven't done a deep dive on guys that could be targeted at #20...mostly because there are so many guys that could be available. But yeah, Kris Murray seems like a fine pick at that spot for all the reasons mentioned. I'd be happy with that. I am kinda leaning towards trading the pick though. Or maybe I'm just accepting that as likely given the news we hear coming from the Rockets. I think there are a lot of potentially good role players available in the 30-40 range, so part of me likes a potential deal to trade the 20th pick (and for the hell of it, throw in Tate/etc), get a 2023 early 2nd rd pick (maybe luck into a Podz, Kobe Brown, Prosper, Rupert, Nnaji, etc.), and then maybe get a future 1st (or more 2nds) in a future draft. Maybe 2025 or 2026 as 2024 might suck, but I'll take any of those. That would give this team some time to churn through young guys this year, and see who should stick and who should go. And we could really use some more draft picks in these next few drafts (especially if they think they can flip the BKN ones at some point for max value if belief is that BKN will suck).
Very strong, IMO. My top choice would be Jordan Hawkins, but I see some mocks drafts have him much higher, lottery range. Same with Lively: excellent choice but may not be there for us. If we assume that these two are unavailable, I'd go in that order: 1. Chris Murray 2. Podziemski 3. Jett Howard And BTW: any of these 5 players will have a better impact next year than whoever we end up drafting at #4 "for the potentialz"
@Medicine N Music --- where are you at with Leonard Miller with pick 20 and Houston being a good landing spot for him? Alot of it has to do what happens at 4 and particularly with the possibility of Taylor Hendricks being here and making them redundant, but I think he has some high upside especially for pick 20. I might even like Jet Howards shooting at 20 over Murray.
I would assume we trade pick 20 and move into a future draft. maybe trade the pick with tate, KJM, or even KPJ (if we draft amen at 4) to move up. but going along with the game of who would we pick at 20... I think for sure lively and Hawkins are gone. I'm pretty low on Murray (age), Howard (limited to 1 skill).... but I love Podziemski. great pick there. one of the best passers and shooters in the draft. the passing between he, amen, and sengun would be unbelievable. other names I'd consider that are almost sure to be there, cissoko, Rupert, and nnaji. all were great defenders with rotation roles in professional leagues. that's a great accomplishment at their age and very transferrable to nba success. at 20 you're just hoping the guy you draft sticks, so I don't mind reaching a bit if I'm high on them and they fit a need. maybe trade back like we did to get tyty if you can work it out.
I watched a ton of Murray this year. He has some tools but I’m not seeing him making a big impact in the league. Might have more to offer later on in his career, we will see. I know you said take a gamble and that does make sense. Man, I really appreciate all the work you put into this. It’s really great stuff.
I value your opinion and trust it but when I watched him I wasn’t impressed at all and actually thought he was the dollar general version of his brother ..
It would be better to just trade the pick for a future 1st and keep developing Sengun, Bari and Tari vs. drafting Murray. Rockets are the youngest team in the league and don't really need any rookies who don't have star potential. I do believe however that he'll be a productive player in the league, but I'd hate to see KMJ and/or Tate traded for him. I believe both are underrated and can be more productive than what they've shown considering the Rockets tanked the last 3 seasons.
He definitely did not do well in some games. I think ultimately he'll likely be worse than Keegan, but I'm hoping it's just slightly worse and Kris will have a long career. He may not seem to do much, but he's a winning player that makes the right plays, can shoot and can defend. Murray projects to be an above average defender at the 3/4 position. Lateral movement is average for 3, but he has almost a 7 foot wingspan and has very high IQ defensively. For Lively, it depends on price. If we can trade KMJ/Tate, that's a no brainer. I'm not trading a Net's 1st or something more valuable.
For 20th pick, I would consider getting either Murray of Lively ! Both would be strong contributor to our future Upgraded team ! Y
Lively is probably a lottery pick at this point. He moved way up the draft. Murray is a solid choice, we have so many guys in line at forward though. I like him as a prospect but there's no room for him.
